I struggle to get my head around the size of the Chinese property collapse & it's global consequences.

[StrawberryMarble]

Is anyone else following this? Because it will affect us for sure down the line. 65 MILLION properties in China are in a limbo of being half built & the developers have run out of funds. This is way way bigger than the sub-prime crisis in the US. Blocks of flats are being demolished in their thousands. The Chinese government is pumping trillions in to keep the economy afloat. I think we're in for an unprecidented global recession that will bite longer & harder than ever before when you add in the cost of covid and the energy crisis.

Yes I saw that. Why? What’s the point of demolishing them?
I mean they’re hideous but presumably that’s not the reason for knocking them down.

Illegally built without the proper permissions & building regs. There are conversations online from building integrity inspectors who say the way the buildings collapsed when blown up showed they weren't constructed safely in the first place. Also that permission to build was gained through unofficial back-handers.

1113333
Thats interesting - the whole thing sounds a shambles.

Friends of mine in Shanghai have been reporting that significant barriers are now being placed on women and girls to stop them having abortions. They are quietly making it impossible to terminate. This is such a chilling development, and Chinese women are rightly alarmed at the CP now taking over their bodies, and forcing pregnancies to continue.
I saw it was reported this week in some papers here. I just wish the media would stop the hyper focus on the same monotonous subjects and report what is actually happening that is really significant.

The Chinese property problem has been simmering for ages now - if you add that to the banking crisis they are trying to cover up - the true consequences of the pandemic in China start to emerge.

@Festoonlights that's awful, I did think demographics may be behind some of the recent abortion rulings in America, it's dystopian.

Yes it is terrible, and getting worse. I wasn’t sure whether to post that the spontaneous lockdowns are nothing to do with covid either - in Shanghai but a full on government crackdown. The intimidation has reached new levels. The ikea example is just one of many, but that one was leaked. China has become a prison (in the name of covid) in the last few years. State surveillance is everywhere and any indiscretion can result in arrest.

I also think areas with low crime will be more attractive as i'm sure it will increase!

oops not sure how I posted on the wrong thread!

If you are interested in looking behind the scenes in China, I recommend following the The Great Translation Movement on twitter that helps expose what China is like behind the obsfuction of the language barrier.

The CCP tried to get them of Twitter, which is ironic as it is illegal to use Twitter in China so in theory they should be bothered.

twitter.com/TGTM_Official

@JohnRokesmith where did you see the data for 2050 projection? I read Fortune has an article mentioning shrinkage from 1.4b to 1.3b which sounds more reasonable. "Halving the population" is overly exaggerated and made it sound very scary.

fortune.com/2022/07/12/china-population-india-birth-rates-baby-bust-worlds-most-populous-country/

can't see the full article. but you can see the number by 2050.

@Notgoingbacktofuture a few of us replied to that over the past several pages but no reply. The correct data is available from the UN world population projections site which is used by eg world bank etc

One of the things I'm reading at the moment ...

foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/04/xi-china-unemployment-jobs-economy-crisis-youth-mao-great-leap-forward/

This was going on before Covid but has gone quiet since. Bank of China is and interesting read too

Now think about the US and Roe vs Wade.

Birth rate is dropping globally

Go China bubble!

Is Evergrande still being bailed out?

Interesting but terrifying

I don't think it is something they can control because of the extent of international investors.