Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

I get that, but if you wanted to say "look at us, we're adequate people, we don't want to cause food crisis" you wouldn't hit the port the very next day, would you? You are clearly demonstrating that you are completely unreliable, and there just isn't a way you can lie your way out of this, it's so plainly obvious.

I have to say that I wouldnt like to be flying one. There are still (reasonably reliable) reports of Russian anti-aircraft and anti-missile in effective action.

on another note:

Russia attacks Odesa port, compromises grain deal (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraines-military-russia-attacks-port-in-odesa)

The missile attack came a day after Russia and Ukraine signed UN-backed agreements to resume exports of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. The deal aimed to unblock crucial grain exports and ease fears of a looming global food crisis. It envisioned safe passage of Ukrainian grain from three southwestern ports in Odesa Oblast, including the one in Odesa.

Following the strike, the Ministry of Agriculture told
(suspilne.media/263646-rosiani-zavdali-raketnij-udar-po-odeskomu-portu-ok-pivden/)Suspilne media outlet that there was grain stored at the port at the time of the attack. The grain was expected to be exported in the next couple of days, according to the ministry's comment.

I have to say, how fucking stupid is Guterres?

@notimagain, I am solidly pro-Warthog. Every time the zoomies try to ditch the A-10, congress keeps putting it back in the budget. You do have to have absolute air superiority to operate them, but I think that's doable in Ukraine if they get modern fighter jets and more air defense kit.

A Warthog making a strafing run is absolutely terrifying, and the DU rounds go through armor like it was cardboard. I'm all for sending them to Ukraine, but not to get rid of them. I think we have about 300 of them in service. We really should be designing a successor CAS aircraft, but the A-10 has gotten a lot of upgrades over the years.

But from the Russian POV:

1. bombing of Odessa won't be extensively reported in target-audience countries so never happened.
2. it was a "provocation" by Ukraine to prevent Russia rescuing the poor starving countries waiting on this grain.

Russia likes to win all ways. Different stories for different people, Russia always the hero.

Sorry, I'm realistic about how amazingly successful this technique is because I've just been dealing with the fallout (yet again) from a narcissistic relative who has most of the family wrapped round her little finger. Relative can lie, have affairs, break the law, do whatever she likes, and will still never be anything but a charming, sweet, heroic martyr who valiantly overcomes the many meanies trying to abuse her (aka failing to obey her whim). Someone even described her to me as "very forgiving". Oh yes, she does a lot of forgiving. Out loud. For decades. Of things no one else would have taken umbrage at in the first place (not done by me, I hasten to add: I was just the audience for the whining-oh-I-mean-forgiving).

I find her behaviour an excellent guide to what can be achieved by the shameless if they're deft at charm and PR.

See also the Orange Guy in the US.

❕32 Ukrainian volunteer drivers were released from captivity. They were delivering humanitarian aid to civilians from Zaporizhzhia to Mariupol and were captured by the Russian military.

They were illegally detained for more than three months in the occupied village of Olenivka, Donetsk region.

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Everyone will have read how Russia has bombed Odesa

Geolocation of the Russian cruise missile strikes by [bloody stupid mumsnet site messes up the AT, but it's AT Obretix] shows the intended target was the grain storage facilities in the port of Odesa.

Day 150 📌 Yesterday, Ukraine, Turkey & the UN signed a grain export deal in Istanbul. Russia, Turkey and the UN signed the identical document at the request of Ukraine. Today, Odesa city port, namely docks with 🇺🇦 grain, was targeted with four 🇷🇺 Kaliber cruise missiles.

WarMonitor🇺🇦
@WarMonitor3
·
27m
No casualties in Odessa strike

Russian forces directly targeted the grain terminal

And actually one of the things I do find stunning about narcissistic relative is the skill with which she not just pours good feelz on her followers, but more importantly displaces bad feelz onto her bogeymen.

She does something shit to them... but it's not merely Not Her Fault, it is actively the fault of the bogeymen.

I have to admire her deftness. And it's impossible to counteract with facts, because it's all about feelings.

@Ijsbear Today 13:16
Geolocation of the Russian cruise missile strikes by [bloody stupid mumsnet site messes up the AT, but it's AT Obretix] shows the intended target was the grain storage facilities in the port of Odesa.

If the grain storage facility was their target,, what are the Russians playing at, given the new agreement, signed by Russia that Ukraine is allowed to ship grain out safely?
Targeting a grain store does not seem to be in the spirit of that.

They agreed not to target Odesa once the grain was being transported. So targeting the city and the grain silos before the shipments start is within the letter of the agreement.

I don't quite understand what they stand to gain by it, except contributing to the destruction of the Ukrainian economy.

I also am wondering where @RedToothBrush is. I miss her commentary.

BoreOfWhabylon }· Today 14:31
I also am wondering where @RedToothBrush is. I miss her commentary.

Yes, I have been wondering too.
And about @TargusEasting.

FWIW RTB is still around has been active on at least one other (non-Ukraine) related thread in the last day or two.

yes, I miss them both

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime I think 100% of (non-trolls) would agree that it's against the spirit of the law. Im not sure Russia would go for that excuse because

1. It means they can't claim Ukraine bombed its own silos and

2. promises mean nothing to them anyway. and 3) see point 1.

@PerkingFaintly Once you meet people like that and observe them in action you can't unsee it can you. All you can do is step away. I hope you are safe from that relative.

The A-10 is to some extent saddled with the problem the Harrier (GR versions) had in Uk use..the army loved them but at times the Air Force maybe had other priorities as to what they wanted to spend the money on and providing a long range artillery piece wasn’t one of them.

I know strafe attacks were impressive (we used to do strafe ourselves occasionally, albeit with a smaller caliber Gatling) but these days that sort of attack can be somewhat err, career limiting. Not so much because of the airborne threat from fighters, which as you say, could perhaps be suppressed, but because in theory in the A-10’s case it may not have the survivability against more modern MANPADS than the SAM -7 it was initially designed to cope with.

Certainly from what I’ve heard much effort went to improving the A-10s stand-off capability (at which point the Air Force started arguing in that case why not simply use things like F-16 for CAS, because they’ll get to scene of the fight faster), and AIUI strafe got reserved, so to speak, for use against lower tier opposition - now if it’s thought the Russian MANPADS are still p poor then of course there’s an argument for A-10 and the big gun in Ukraine.

All that said I’m not sure I’d fancy doing the trials in the field on a two way range.

Missing posters: sometimes you need a break, are busy with work, stuck in a queue at Dover and so on. And occasionally bad things happen.

mobile.twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1550816901370204160 Not sure if this has already been mentioned unconfirmed strike on Luhansk court building allegedly 50 members of Russian military inside

Dar’ivka bridge damage.

Interesting. Like a limiting warning to the Russians in Kherson city, the Ukrainian strike on the bridge has been plotted to show a string of holes effectively making the bridge single track.

Image not mine neither is the next one.

Where is this?

There’s a bridge over an otherwise unbridged tributary carrying the only main road to the north of the Dnipro heading across and west from Nova Khakovka. The two bridges into Kherson city now have damage.

They are still crossable and no doubt repairable.

If the Russian forces withdraw they need a route. So to do the Ukrainians if they advance.

@notimagain, it's quite true that the MANPAD threat is worse against a near-peer adversary. I still think it could be a useful asset for the Ukrainians. The ten hard points put a lot of ground attack missiles in the air, more than the F-16 or a rotary wing aircraft can carry. Having the 30mm gun could be a backup. There's also a lot more truck traffic to interdict now that the Russians are offloading supplies from outside HIMARS range.

I'd leave it up to the Ukrainians. It's their war and their air force. If they ask for A-10s, I think the US should train the pilots and give them a few squadrons and see how they do. That's what we've done with the M142s. I like the idea for no reason other than giving the Russians another problem to deal with. You should always have the adversary reacting to your initiatives.

mobile.twitter.com/GoncharenkoUa/status/1550816356647436288 statement from Ukrainian NO about Putin warning about explicit bad language

MP

The bridges are still crossable for regular cars, but not heavy lorries or tanks. That's the main aim - to cut off Russia's ability to resupply. I don't think it's a huge problem for Ukraine because they have the rest of country to their disposal, unlike Russia who have limited territory to move around.

Presumably if they send heavy lorries or tanks over them they are quite likely to cease to be any use for cars either? as well as there being a few tanks and lorries in the river below.

wouldn't that be a shame @AskingQuestionsAllTheTime :) (well, as long it was Russian tanks hitting the river)

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⚡️During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 4 ammunition depots and 3 Russian bases
Destroyed warehouses and bases were located in Kadievka, Donetsk, Makiivka, and Horlivka.

📍Occupied Kherson is now cut off from the supply of heavy weapons and armored vehicles, which contributes to the successful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said the deputy of the regional council Serhii Khlan

According to him, this became possible after successful strikes by Ukrainian defenders on strategically important bridges for the enemy

Arestovych suggested a theory that Russian strike on Odessa was just a revenge for Russia not getting its own way on grain agreement - I think they were hoping/suggesting for Ukraine stopping counteroffensives in the south. That obviously didn't happen.