Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

Olga Lautman AT OlgaNYC1211
The new pres of Russian occupied South Ossetia, Gagloev, who was favored by the Kremlin during second round of elections suspended the referendum on joining Russia that was set for July. Interesting that Russia is easing the pressure on Georgia for now

The Times AT thetimes
Ministers delay closure of coal-fired generators over fear of gas shortages caused by Ukraine war

Six million households could face blackouts this winter because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ministers have been warned, as they look to bolster electricity supplies by prolonging the life of coal and nuclear power stations

The Times has been told that the government’s “reasonable” worst-case scenario, which has been drawn up by officials from across Whitehall, says that there could be widespread gas shortages if Russia goes further in cutting off supplies to the EU

A minister said the briefing suggested that electricity could have to be rationed for up to 6m homes at the start of next year, mostly at peaks in the morning and evening.

The curbs could last more than a month, causing energy prices to rise again

Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, has written to the owners of Britain’s three remaining coal-fired power stations to ask them to stay open for longer than planned.

They were due to close in September under plans to phase them out entirely by 2024 to reduce emissions

The worst-case scenario is understood to raise concerns that Norwegian imports of gas, on which Britain is reliant, could more than halve because of increased EU demand.

Imports of liquefied natural gas could also halve because of greater competition

The modelling is understood to assume that Britain will receive no imports of gas from “interconnectors” in the Netherlands and Belgium as both countries face their own emergencies

The closure of the plants would lead to a shortage of electricity, forcing the govt, in effect, to ration.

It would be turned off on weekdays at peak times in the morning, between 7am and 10am, and in the evenings, between 4pm and 9pm.

Gas supply to homes would be unaffected

Officials are also said to have drawn up an even bleaker strategy in the event of Russia cutting off gas entirely to the EU.

It suggests that energy blackouts could start in December and last for three months, with blackouts both on weekdays and weekends

The govt is in talks with Centrica about reopening a natural gas storage facility off the east coast of England, with more than £1bn of subsidies.

There are concerns in govt that gas prices could remain high next year as the war between Russia and Ukraine becomes more entrenched

Just to clarify, Biden hasn't ruled out all long range weapons, just ones that would strike very deep into Russia. They are still being sent

Nathalie Thomas AT NathalieThomas3
EDF rules out delaying shutdown of Hinkley Point B nuclear plant despite gov push to secure more energy supplies over winter. "Although it is technically feasible to extend operations for up to six months, the time required to do this...has now run out."

This winter is not looking good

I'll be rationing myself this winter! Our gas bill was appalling last winter (we are not on mains gas). Glad we have a log burner! I'm seriously thinking buying solar panels for our roof. It's very expensive but...

@notimagain Re: Long range artillery. HIMARS and MLRS could in theory hit Moscow from the border of the Bryansk Oblast, but that would be too close to Russian forces to risk the loss. There are other cities closer like Bryansk and Smolensk which have military industrial value. The kit will I suspect be graded so that 150km is achievable, but not more. Who knows...there are probably things going on we do not know about yet.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong Re: Dying on a hill. Exactly what you said. I strongly suspect the intention here is to bleed Russia slowly. Degrade it and its armed forces and with sanctions its industry too. The real issue for the political hawks is no longer Ukraine but Scandinavia, the Baltics, Poland, Romania and ultimately the Middle East and Africa. Russia's weakness, defined as it is, is continuously compounded the longer this war continues. The more soldiers thrown into the Donbas (and the more senior too) the longer it is going to be for Russia to recover. Tying Russia's scant resources down while offloading western equipment from the 1990's+ in return for future payments when Ukraine rebuilds itself assists the US in funding its future military development while also trialling some systems on the battlefield (under close supervision). Some of the munitions arriving now have the ability to inflict significant damage on Russian positions, in large numbers. As I have said on the earliest threads, war is money and there is only one country with the entrepreneurial flair and the right political experience to pull this off.

@RedToothBrush It would be turned off on weekdays at peak times in the morning, between 7am and 10am, and in the evenings, between 4pm and 9pm.

Boris, Jacob and Rishi will be rubbing their hands with glee. "That'll get all them pesky civil servants back to the office before Christmas."

@Hillsmakeyoustrong 19:52

I feel the same.

It is outrageous that the Russian ambassador says Russia will not use tactical nuclear weapons unless the existence of the state is threatened - while as he speaks Russia is wiping out the state of Ukraine.

BBC News:

"Valentin Yumashev, the son-in-law of former Russian leader Boris Yeltsin, who helped President Vladimir Putin come to power, has quit his role as a Kremlin adviser, Reuters has reported.
Yumashev was an unpaid adviser with limited influence on Putin's decision-making, but his departure removes one of the last links to Yeltsin's rule inside Putin's administration, Reuters reports.
Yeltsin's rule, 1991-9 oversaw a period of liberal reforms, during which Russia opened up to the West.
Boris Yeltsin came to international attention as the Russian leader who took control of the country after the collapse of the Soviet Union."

@Hillsmakeyoustrong 21:00
I feel we are saying please will you die on this hill (so we don't have to) and can you do so magnanimously.

You have put that so well. It does seem exactly as you say.

Russia is wiping out an entire nation, that is the very definition of genocide. But no-one seems to mention the g word anymore. Probably so that the West can use Ukraine to eke out the war a little longer to attrit and isolate Russia even more militarily, economically and politically.

Poor Ukraine. How much more of their blood must be split before Russia is allowed to lose.

True, think that's evident and in any event it's almost a case of semantics..

For some weapons systems such as artillery 50 km might be defined as "long range" and for others weapons systems such as some rockets and many missiles it could be 500km or much more

The fundamental point is the one you make - the US won't supply systems that could strike deep into Russia (now define "deep").

For all we know quite possibly somebody in DC has used a ruler, a map, looked at the situation on the ground and said we'll give the Ukranians something that'll go x kilometres, but no further.

TargusEating thanks for your insight on long range artillery and RedToothBrush for info on energy supplies. Very interesting.

Russia's cutting the supply off to the NL for 4 months since the NL refuses to pay in Roubles

looks mournfully at her gas cooker

We decided to in March, in part due to the war.

It cost us a small fortune (but we should recoup a lot of that cost rather sooner than we'd anticipated for various reasons).

We didn't opt for the battery option as that would have been another 50% of what we paid and the battery life and the cost of the battery just didn't make sense. We'd said maybe in future.

This makes for a problem come winter if they are talking blackouts 7 - 10 and then 4 - 9pm. Atm, we start generating about 7.30am to 8am. And still are getting some until about 8pm. The winter isn't going to allow for that.

We are slightly screwed by the gas thing too despite our best efforts. That also means cooking and heating...

...we plan to get a ground source pump, but we just couldn't afford solar in the same year. Not on top of everything else we have going on.

It will be blankets and butties all around. I must get a wind up radio though...

Interesting tweet
mobile.twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1531201550441402368

Stock up on camping stoves! That's our plan B in case of a power cut due to storms, etc. We already have a wood burner. Although obviously it's a short term solution. It's quite scary how unstable the world has become.

Regular power cuts will certainly bring into sharp focus the UK's decision to replace analogue landline telephones (which work in a power cut) with VOIP (which doesn't).

There's reports of DNR soldiers shooting at Russian soldiers as well.

@minimum · Yesterday 23:42
Interesting tweet
mobile.twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1531201550441402368

That intercept is extraordinary.

I think some Ukrainian soldiers must be getting desperate too.

@OwlsDance · Today 00:04

“minsmum
Interesting tweet
mobile.twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1531201550441402368”

There's reports of DNR soldiers shooting at Russian soldiers as well.

Why would they be doing that?

Presumably the DNR soldiers are forced conscripts from DNR occupied regions who have been press-ganged into fighting for Russia. They probably felt they had nothing left to lose.

I feel for the Ukraine forces as well and don't blame individual soldiers if they are also deserting. The fighting in Severodonetsk has been absolutely relentless. It must feel like a suicide mission. They may feel abandoned and sacrificed like those in the steel plant in Mariupol

Interesting interview with Taiwanese FM that the Chinese government have already tried to get taken down: www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-708082

Yes, the forcefully conscripted ones.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued to incrementally capture areas of Severodonetsk but have not yet fully encircled the city.

Russian forces focused on regrouping near Izyum to renew offensives towards Slovyansk and Barvinkove and conducted only minor, unsuccessful, attacks. Russian forces are making incremental advances towards Slovyansk and seek to assault the city itself in the coming weeks, but are unlikely to achieve decisive gains.

Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod, and Ukrainian forces have not conducted any significant operations in the area in recent days.

The limited Ukrainian counterattack in northern Kherson Oblast did not take any further ground in the last 48 hours but has disrupted Russian operations. Russian forces launched several unsuccessful attacks against the Ukrainian bridgehead on the east bank of the Inhulets River.

Mounting casualties among Russian junior officers will further degrade Russian morale and command and control capabilities.

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Today in the Luhansk region, the occupiers disrupted the evacuation from the areas of hostilities by firing at a car following the locals. French journalist Frédéric Leclerc-Imhoff was killed by the shelling. He worked for the French TV channel BFM TV. A

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The Kyiv Independent, [

⚡️⚡️ Official: EU agrees to partial Russian oil ban.

⚡️ Official: Russian troops attempt to advance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

⚡️ Governor: Russians advance in Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast, fighting ongoing.

⚡️Turkey offers Putin peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul.

⚡️Ukrainian defenders successfully hold off Russian attacks in the south.

From UkraineNOW telegram channel:

⚡️ War News:

▪️ Operational command "Skhid" in a day destroyed up to 50 invaders, three units of armored vehicles, three mortars and a drone.

▪️ Strike aircraft of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired on the invading forces in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions. Up to ten air raids were carried out on the enemy positions. Fire damage was inflicted on ammunition depots, accumulation of armored vehicles, and russian military manpower.

▪️ Over May 30, the Russians killed three Donetsk region civilians: two in Toretsk and one in Avdiivka. Four more people were injured, - Donetsk RSA.

▪️ Russian militaries
advanced inside Sieverodonetsk, street battles continue.
Residents are strongly advised to stay inside shelters!

• Luhansk RSA.

▪️ In the Gomel region of Belarus, bordering the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Zhytomyr regions of Ukraine, "planned exercises with military commissariats" will take place from June 22 to July 1, according to the Belarusian state news agency BELTA.

⚡️ Breaking!
Charles Michel: The EU has agreed to ban the export of Russian oil and disconnect Sberbank from SWIFT.