Ukraine Invasion: Part 17

[MagicFox]

A new place for us to convene, thread 17.

@BorgQueen

There’s an American guy, James Vasquez on twitter, ex military and is with a group of Ukrainian and foreign soldiers/ex soldiers, including brits. They are being funded by donations on paypal, buying vehicles, arms and ammo, it’s like something from a movie and I can imagine one being made, it’s pretty incredible.

I would be amazed and disappointed if the rights hadn't been sold already.

Churchill was hawking his "History of WW2" while it was still going on.

Alternative theory about whodunnit to add to the list.

Self Sabotage. A couple of pissed off Russian who don't want to fight anymore but also don't want to defect and thus are trying to sabotage themselves.

It does strike me as almost fantastical to think there's Ukrainian helicopters in that part of Ukraine that haven't been spotted and then managed to go into Russian airspace 2 days after two separate incidents (which the Russians have largely tried to cover up) and blow up a fuel depot.

Dr Peter Caddick-adams @militaryhistori
Poor President Elensky

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60949791
Ukraine war: Gruesome evidence points to war crimes on road outside Kyiv

Self Sabotage. A couple of pissed off Russian who don't want to fight anymore but also don't want to defect and thus are trying to sabotage themselves.

TBH that was my first thought when I heard it. The suspiciously low reported casualties being a hint. Given (as linked) Russian arms stores have a habit of going bang anyway, it's almost impossible to prove it was sabotage.

Thing is we know what our own side did to deserters in WW1. So it's fair to presume Russian officers are similarly primed.

Nathan Ruser @nrg8000
If you're wondering how Yesterday went for Russian troops invading Ukraine...
Here's a map of the 40 (!) towns and settlements claimed recaptured by Ukrainian forces yesterday. Along 8 different axes of advance.
Seems like half withdrawal, half rout.

I recommend reading Noahopinions today - he has a very good interview with one of India's leading economists that touch on India's past reforms, present struggles and the war in Ukraine.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/interview-arvind-subramanian-former?r=615mx&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Tim White @TWMCltd

Yesterday there were unconfirmed rumours of troops from the annexed (from Georgia) territory of South Ossetia refused to fight against #Ukraine.^

Now the ex-President of S.Ossetia has admitted they left Ukraine without permission.

The Battalion Tactical Group was moved to Donetsk

Reuters @reuters
Russian gas flows to Europe despite Putin deadline

Rubles or Euros/Dollars?

Who has backed down?

@RedToothBrush

Reuters *@reuters* Russian gas flows to Europe despite Putin deadline

Rubles or Euros/Dollars?

Who has backed down?

And how much control does Putin have over day to day operations gas wise ?

I think on my Germany has backed down - they opened Russian bank accounts. They're saying they haven't cos they're paying in euros but obviously it's splitting hairs

This was on PM on Radio 4 earlier in the week - basically it's posturing by Putin because it's payments in hard currency to Gazprom Bank that the bank then converts to roubles. The west has paid something like 20 billion to Russia for gas and oil so far this year.

That was payments in Jan and Feb.

FWIW with regard to the Belogrod incident - there’s cctv/security camera footage circulating, exact origin, unknown that does appear to show two attack helicopters (quite possibly Mi-24 Hinds, which can have night/poor weather capability) firing what look like unguided munitions at something..it doesn’t look like the sort of stuff some gamers have been trying to pass off as Ukrainian successes in previous weeks so might be genuine.

Given the poor state of a lot of the Russian kit we really don’t know how good any of their Air Defence systems would be a engaging a low flying helicopter in that area at night, so I don’t think there’s anything especially fantastical about the idea of such a mission, but I’d say the jury is still out on exactly what went on.

Astonishingly good flying. I met a navigator for Guy Gibson once when I was young, he'd bottled out because it was just too much!

@WeAreTheHeroes

This was on PM on Radio 4 earlier in the week - basically it's posturing by Putin because it's payments in hard currency to Gazprom Bank that the bank then converts to roubles. The west has paid something like 20 billion to Russia for gas and oil so far this year.

Yes, I heard that interview too. Made a lot of sense.

My understanding was that given the vast sums of money paid to Russia, they need the west as much as the west needs their oil and gas.

@notimagain

FWIW with regard to the Belogrod incident - there’s cctv/security camera footage circulating, exact origin, unknown that does appear to show two attack helicopters (quite possibly Mi-24 Hinds, which can have night/poor weather capability) firing what look like unguided munitions at something..it doesn’t look like the sort of stuff some gamers have been trying to pass off as Ukrainian successes in previous weeks so might be genuine.

Given the poor state of a lot of the Russian kit we really don’t know how good any of their Air Defence systems would be a engaging a low flying helicopter in that area at night, so I don’t think there’s anything especially fantastical about the idea of such a mission, but I’d say the jury is still out on exactly what went on.

Here's the footage:

www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/ttixun/footage_of_the_helicopter_strike_against_the/

Realistically for Ukraine to get helicopters there threading through the Russian AA radar NATO (aka the USA) would have had to have been central to the planning and execution.

Jimmy @JimmySecUK
The fire at the depot has seemingly spread to multiple locations.

Russian Air Force Mi-17s are now being employed in a firefighting role.

Some suggestion that 2 tanks were hit and now 8 out of 9 are on fire. It does look like its really causing them a headache.

Retreat or Withdrawal.
Back in the day I took part in a week long exercise at Sandhurst called "Marathon Chase", in the Brecon Beacons. It was to teach us the finer points of withdrawal whilst in contact with the enemy, (the Gurkhas).
We knew it was a "withdrawal" because the Directing Staff had impressed on us that the British Army never retreated !
I remember little of it, 5 days w/o sleep I was hallucinating towards the end, and on the last night lost my rifle.
A serious offence as apparently it could fall into the hands of the IRA, (we did find it).
I was given a month's extra guard duties as a result, but was amazed that the IRA may have had an active cell in the Brecon Beacons. Poor dears, in that weather !

We knew it was a withdrawal because

marqs @MarQs__
Putin has been briefed on the Ukrainian strikes in the Russian city of #Belgorod - Peskov

I wonder how they told him. And whether the messenger is about to go on sick leave.

@K4fkaesque

Realistically for Ukraine to get helicopters there threading through the Russian AA radar NATO (aka the USA) would have had to have been central to the planning and execution.

Well either that or pure luck…

That footage of the air strike is amazing

Suicide mission by helicopter crew but it happened

Balls of steel

And now time for some proper Ukrainian Propaganda:

twitter.com/vitalij_kim/status/1509859291469328394
Віталій Кім @vitalij_kim
There are two pieces of news, one of which appears to be true

Apologies if this has been posted, I haven't yet caught up with the thread. Edik's story is very interesting. Clearly some trust the Russians even now...

www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/apr/01/who-will-return-my-stolen-life-to-me-the-teenagers-who-fled-mariupol-ukraine