Ukraine Invasion: Part 17

[MagicFox]

A new place for us to convene, thread 17.

@Verysadatwork

“Has anyone heard anything from Zelensky in the last day or two?”

I wish.

I don't understand?

@ScrollingLeaves

Bojan Pancevski @bopanc* The author of the now celebrated Ukrainian battle cry “Russian warship, go f… yourself” serviceman Roman Gribov, is awarded a medal for displaying the “strength of Ukrainian, Kozak spirit.” He was captured and then exchanged by the Russian invaders in a prisoner swap*

I looked up ‘Kozak’ and was interested to see it originally meant ‘free spirit’. That is apt I think.

Completely off topic, but every time I hear that quote, it reminds me of "Whoreson Prison Blues" from the Witcher.

Russia reportedly continues to struggle in its efforts to generate new combat power and replenish equipment. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 29 that Russian troops are drawing equipment out of long-term storage in Boguchar, Voronezh Oblast, but that 40% of that equipment is inoperable.[1] The General Staff also reported that Russian efforts to generate reinforcements from the Pacific Fleet could not produce even a single battalion because of refusals to fight.[2] We have no independent confirmation of these assessments, but Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu‘s March 29 statement that Russia would not deploy conscripts to “hot spots” corroborates assessments of Russian soldiers’ unwillingness to enter the war.[3] The UK Ministry of Defense reported on March 28 that the Wagner Group is deploying forces, including senior leaders, to eastern Ukraine to make up for heavy Russian combat losses.[4]

The General Staff also reported that Russian efforts to generate reinforcements from the Pacific Fleet could not produce even a single battalion because of refusals to fight !

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-29

Mariupol has only isolated pockets of resistance now. Christ, brave men.

IIRC, Russia's excuse for blockading the Black Sea was to 'protect ships from Ukrainian mines.'

Sure, Jan.

@EsmaCannonball

IIRC, Russia's excuse for blockading the Black Sea was to 'protect ships from Ukrainian mines.'

Sure, Jan.

Well if those nasty Ukranians hadn't forced Russia to invade then there wouldn't have been any war at all. If they just behaved themselves and did as Putin said they wouldn't be in this mess.

Two more senior Russian officers killed in Ukraine.
groundreport.in/who-was-anatoly-shterliz-8th-russian-general-killed-in-ukraine/

Possibly another - Colonel Denis Kurilo

Different sources are reporting them as the eighth, but I think the numbering is awry.

These losses are astonishing.

@Ijsbear

Russia reportedly continues to struggle in its efforts to generate new combat power and replenish equipment. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 29 that Russian troops are drawing equipment out of long-term storage in Boguchar, Voronezh Oblast, but that 40% of that equipment is inoperable.[1] The General Staff also reported that Russian efforts to generate reinforcements from the Pacific Fleet could not produce even a single battalion because of refusals to fight.[2] We have no independent confirmation of these assessments, but Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu‘s March 29 statement that Russia would not deploy conscripts to “hot spots” corroborates assessments of Russian soldiers’ unwillingness to enter the war.[3] The UK Ministry of Defense reported on March 28 that the Wagner Group is deploying forces, including senior leaders, to eastern Ukraine to make up for heavy Russian combat losses.[4]

The General Staff also reported that Russian efforts to generate reinforcements from the Pacific Fleet could not produce even a single battalion because of refusals to fight !

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-29

Mariupol has only isolated pockets of resistance now. Christ, brave men.

Likely fall within days?

groundreport.in/who-was-denis-kurilo-russian-colonel-killed-in-ukraine/

UK Intelligence reporting that Belarus is being used to regroup and re-supply Russian troops.

Europe really needs to carefully monitor what is going in and out of Belarus. I know Polish civilians have been blocking lorries but I hope there's a more official strategy.

Well won’t be much left to capture of Mariupol, or anyone left alive to cheer for the Russians as they take it 🙄

@Igotjelly

Well won’t be much left to capture of Mariupol, or anyone left alive to cheer for the Russians as they take it 🙄

Or indeed any flowers.

@Igotjelly

Well won’t be much left to capture of Mariupol, or anyone left alive to cheer for the Russians as they take it 🙄

I don't think the Russians require those things.

All they want is the secure land corridor.

The Russians have also made sure not to pound the port of Mariupol, so that they will be able to use it to access the Sea of Asov.

Just goes to show that the destruction of the city and all its civilian dwellings is a deliberate act

I still just can’t get my head around them destroying the towns and killing civilians in the areas which they want to be part of Russia. It blows my mind that they think people will want to be part of these areas after they complete their “special operation” and be thankful for it as well

@Autumnwater

I still just can’t get my head around them destroying the towns and killing civilians in the areas which they want to be part of Russia. It blows my mind that they think people will want to be part of these areas after they complete their “special operation” and be thankful for it as well

Like everything else about this, it's beyond belief. That they think everyone they "liberate" will be so thankful and support mother Russia.

It just beggars belief

I follow the MFA account on twitter and it is really hard to believe it's not a parody account

Saw this on Twitter. The parallels between Hitler and Putin that so many of us see laid out.

Anyone else thinking something hasn’t been reported today (yet?) ? It seems strangely quiet in the horrid attack front. Other than I saw that Kremlin calling for their “ partner trump” to be re-elected.

edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-30-22/index.html

Here you go @Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway

Lavrov's managed to get to China in the end.

[quote borntobequiet] I had BBC News channel on earlier and the presenter was so openly sceptical about Russian claims I thought he'd get done for lack of impartiality. He couldn't have made his opinion more plain if he'd worn a seaside hat emblazoned "Putin is a lying arsehole".

Was it this, Perking? www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p0bx9slf/ros-atkins-on-ros-atkins-on

Another very good BBC News programme for a wide and unbiased take is Dateline London
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006m93g[/quote]
No, I've just looked it up and it was Context with Christian Fraser.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0016120

But Ros Atkins also has a fine unspoken air of, "Yeah, no one believes you."

Fraser's guests yesterday included Jonathan Powell, the Northern Ireland negotiator, who now specialises in negotiations.

He talked about a concept called "mutually hurting stalemate": peace negotiations are only successful if both parties are in some discomfort from a stalemate and see something to gain from resolving the situation.

He said he doesn't see this in Ukraine at the moment, because although Ukraine is obviously hurting, Putin isn't particularly. Therefore Putin has nothing to gain from peace.

As I remember, the guests agreed that the negotiations were just window-dressing from Putin's point of view, but nonetheless the Ukrainians felt they had to keep turning up as they needed to feel they were exploring every avenue.

My own opinion is that it's also politically important for Zelensky's team to pursue peace through negotiations as well as militarily, otherwise they would undoubtedly be criticised for not doing so.

Peter Alexander @PeterAlexander
NEW: "We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisors about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions," a US official tells me, "because his senior advisors are too afraid to tell him the truth.”

Forgive me if I remain slightly sceptical to a degree about some of that claim TBH.

Surely by now somebody has had to explain to Putin why he hasn’t been able to do a victory/PR visit to the new government recently installed in “Kiev”…

@RedToothBrush - I'm sure it was speculated on last night's BBC 10 O'clock News that Abramovich was at the talks in Turkey because Putin trusted him to tell the truth about what was going on rather than him being too scared to tell him.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent
UK not ready to give security guarantees to Ukraine.

Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab says his country isn’t ready to become a guarantor of Ukraine’s independence as part of Kyiv’s proposed peace deal with Moscow.

“Ukraine is not a NATO member,” he said.

Genuinely surprised at this. I guess we dont want to do it alone...

One of the tragedies of this war (sorry special military operation ) is that thousands of Ukrainians will never go home because Home doesnt exist anymore. They will have to build their lives in another country

Russia has made massive mistakes. They are badly informed, badly planned, badly supplied, badly equipped and badly staffed. My worry in all this is if they are not finished off now, and if there isn't regime change, they will not make any mistakes the second time around. There are plenty of regimes willing to support Russia and others that are far too short-termist in their approach (i.e. Germany). Not taking advantage of Russia's immediate weakness is a fatal mistake.