Who is dying from Covid now in the UK?

[YouJustFoldItIn]

In the beginning, pre-vaccine and before the numbers got too great to report on individual cases, we were hearing of case by case stories of people passing away with (not necessarily of but with ) Covid.

Obviously the overwhelming majority were very elderly so the press tended to focus on the outliers who took everyone by surprise - younger people, NHS employees, people who had medical vulnerabilities., people from the ethnic demographics that seemed to be more susceptible etc.

All the NHS frontline workers will have been offered a vaccine now.

All the elderly will have been offered a vaccine now.

All the clinically obese will have been offered the vaccine now.

All people with any sort of medical condition that makes them more vulnerable to being particularly unwell or dying from Covid have been offered the vaccine now.

Even young people who are statistically very low risk have been offered the vaccine now. Obviously some still aren't taking it because they realise they are very low risk and are perhaps more wary of tiny or imagined risks from the vaccine itself than of the risks attached to having Covid.

There are a few cases of people dying in spite of being double vaccinated, but I believe they account for a minority of the recent deaths. So who is dying? If it's very young, ostensibly healthy, statistically very low risk people who have just been extremely unlucky, would we not be hearing about them in the media?

So who is dying now that the numbers are starting to climb again?

Are they unvaccinated elderly people who refused the vaccine?
Unvaccinated medically vulnerable people who refused the vaccine?
Healthy and/or young anti-vaxx refusniks?
People who were already ill with life limiting illnesses?
People who were unable to take the vaccine on medical grounds?
People who went into hospital because of some other issue, had a covid test as a formality and died from the original issue while being Covid positive evenif they were previously unaware of having Covid and possibly symptom free?

Why have we stopped talking about this, when previously the papers were full of the personal stories of many of those who had died yet now, there seems to be nothing.

Just my experience- my DH was blue lighted into hospital on Monday morning. Double jabbed, generally fit, healthy 48 year old. Now he’s in ICU, thankfully he hasn’t needed to be on a ventilator as yet and they are managing him with a CPAP mask but the nurse was saying the numbers of Covid patients being admitted with dangerously low Sats and needing some sort of oxygen therapy has spiked massively in the last 2 weeks and anecdotally, a good number of people in ICU currently are double jabbed with no health issues.
I think there is a lot of suggestion here, and everywhere really, that if you are double jabbed you will be fine, and I’m sure there are a huge number of people that this is true for- but not everyone

Sorry your husband is unwell tantrums
Your post is spot on - lots of young fit folk v unwell, and many vaccinated also unwell (but thankfully usually less so).

But isn't is called 'with covid' rather than 'of covid' purely because covid has caused something else like pneumonia and they've died of that. So they've died of the complications covid caused which they wouldn't have had if they didn't have covid.

There are still too many who are holding off on the vaccine. I really do think that as a drive to get the rest of the population vaccinated ASAP then if it's mostly the unvaccinated (by choice) who are dying or needing hospitalisation now then we should be told.

Would you feel better if it was the unvaccinated who were dying?

@TantrumsAndBalloons I hope he will be ok

My parents both died in January this year, both their death certificates mentioned Covid.

Step Dad death certificate was heart failure, then covid. He also had dementia and prostate cancer, neither was mentioned. But he was really generally very unwell, although stable, and probably would have lived a couple of years longer if he had not caught Covid. So, in summary, his death certificate was correct.

DM was in fantastic health, just old. She would have lived maybe another 10 years, yes she was 92, but they live long in her family! She caught covid and died of covid. So, Covid was primary cause of death on her death certificate, and heart failure was second. So, again, probably correct.

So, you could say they both died not only with covid, but also of covid. It's a tricky distinction.

It's still the elderly dying. The hospitalised are more likely young people, especially age 40-60, and many were hospitalised for something else (not in hospital because of covid).

I've seen a breakdown somewhere, 2/3 of people in hospital who also have covid were age < 65, 2/3 of people dying within 28 days of a +covid test were age 65+. It was an ONS summary from mid or Late June 2021.

ONS, death certificate data, recent weeks.

Among certificates that mentioned covid as cause of death in week ending 2 July 2021, 52% of the deceased were age 75+.

8% (9 of 109 deaths that week) were age 15-44 yrs.
Those stats aren't about all cases, just indicating some things about the group who died.

@JMAngel1

And your last scenario - covid detected but another pathology most likely cause of death.

this and unvaccinated people who are in groups that perhaps should protect themselves from covid and cannot or won't?

I’m getting vibes that you think those who are dying now deserve it in some way.

Well I wouldn't say deserve it, no. But could they have almost certainly prevented their own death or hospitalisation by having the vaccine? I don't know each person's circumstances and I am not a doctor, so I'm not qualified to say. But I suspect that is a strong likelihood for many.

Is the resultant suggestion that we just need to get on with it if people aren’t doing what you think they should to protect themselves?

Yes. I think it probably is. The majority cannot be held to ransom forever more to protect a minority of people who could do more to help themselves, but won't.

Sorry to hear about your husband @TantrumsAndBalloons and I hope he makes a full recovery soon. I work in a hospital and agree that being double vaccinated isn't a guarantee against becoming ill, many of my colleagues currently have Covid and are at home off work feeling awful. We have had rising numbers of double vaccinated patients being admitted with covid as well. I do hope that vaccine research is ongoing. Presumably most vaccine data was gathered at a time when people were living in some sort of semi lockdown so it doesn't reflect life after 'freedom day'.
My husband was in the AZ trial but they stopped weekly swabs on him two months ago so I am wondering how they are gathering further data at the moment.
On a personal level I would like to avoid getting it but feel it is almost inevitable now and I am not going to spend time worrying about something that is out of my control, I will continue to be careful as I can be but I can't control the actions of others so am trying not to live in fear.

Would you feel better if it was the unvaccinated who were dying?

I'd feel better if the unvaccinated who can be vaccinated choose to be vaccinated.

Then fewer people would be dying full stop. There will still be unlucky outliers who only managed one jab due to their age, or who died in spite of having two jabs. But there would be fewer deaths all round if those refusing the vaccine just got on with it.

@brittleheadgirl
Quote
My fil is mid 80s and refuses to have the vaccine, so I wonder if others like him are ending up in hospital?

So has he ended up in hospital
I dare say at his age he’s had a lot of childhoods illnesses that has helped him build up immunity

Sorry to hear about your DH Tantrums

Wishing him a speedy recovery.

Sorry to hear that tantrums
Hope he makes a good recovery

@MySharonavirus

I can't answer your question, but just want to make a quick point that lots of people seem to have forgotten - not all under 40s who want the vaccine have had the chance to be double vaccinated yet. I'm 36 and I got my first as fast as one was available, but I'm still weeks away from my second, and then it'll be another three weeks till I'm protected by it.

Walk in centres are open everywhere this weekend . Be proactive and go get your 2nd dose. All the 20 somethings I know (DC and their friends) have been doing this and are double jabbed.

Crispes OP, you do realise that the Vaccines don’t work for everyone??

My husband has a blood cancer.
He’s not old or otherwise unwell. You’d assume he was fit and healthy to look at him.

His consultant told him on Wednesday at his 6 month check up that he’s not protected at all by the two Pfizer vaccines he’s had and he still needs to avoid catching Covid even though we have young school age D.C.

Lots of other people with deficient immune systems are in the same boat, although not all realise it.

We are constantly living with Covid anxiety.

Hang on a minute I'm in my 40s, I had the first jab as soon as it was available in my area, they sped up my second jab, but I'm still not fully protected as it was less than 3 weeks ago. I know plenty of people who had their second jab after me or are still waiting for it. Some had to delay their jabs due to illness.

Crispes OP, you do realise that the Vaccines don’t work for everyone??

Yes of course I do. But for the vast, vast majority of people they lessen the symptoms and prevent hospitalisation and death. And as far as we can tell, the deaths among double vaccinated people are proportionately very very low. I want to know how many of the people dying now have refused to have the vaccine and are in a demographic where they would have been offered 2 jabs by now. Not people who cannot have it on medical grounds, people who have refused to have it.

Last time I saw it reported on BBC they stated that 43% of those who had died from delta variant were double vaccinated. It was hidden quite deep online and I don’t believe I heard that figure stated on TV but was def quoted online. Your assumption therefore are not quite correct. 43% double vaccinated, x% single vaccine and remaining unvaccinated for whatever reasons. Within unvaccinated will be some through choice and some because they cannot have vaccine

My 70+ parents are refusing to be vaccinated. My dad has multiple health issues. I haven't seen them since 2019.

Every suggestion/argument I make for getting vaccinated is met with some "fact" that supports their refusal.

Eg: "did you hear about the 38yo women who had an adverse reaction to the vaccine and nearly died?" - "no mum, but I didn't hear about all the other 38y olds who had the vaccine and had no adverse reaction whatsoever"

or "the total death numbers for June were 119 and 48 of them were double vaccinated" - "perhaps they died with covid, were extremely elderly, had diabetes/heart failure/cancer/dementia/obesity/copd or any other comorbidity"

I am close to despair 😩. Who knew I'm related to tin foil hat wearing conspiracy theorists.

Walk in centres are open everywhere this weekend . Be proactive and go get your 2nd dose.
All the 20 somethings I know (DC and their friends) have been doing this and are double jabbed.

Are they not leaving any time between the 2?

I want to know how many of the people dying now have refused to have the vaccine and are in a demographic where they would have been offered 2 jabs by now. Not people who cannot have it on medical grounds, people who have refused to have it

I doubt you can drill down that far as people who don't want it are probably ignoring as opposed to filling in a form to say no in order to compile data.

[quote shewalkslikerihanna]@brittleheadgirl
Quote
My fil is mid 80s and refuses to have the vaccine, so I wonder if others like him are ending up in hospital?

So has he ended up in hospital
I dare say at his age he’s had a lot of childhoods illnesses that has helped him build up immunity[/quote]
Your post is a bit confusing so maybe I'm misunderstanding but are you saying that childhood illnesses give you covid immunity? Do you have a link for that?

(Did you know that there's quote function if you want to reply directly to a post?)

@taybert

Ascertaining a cause of death and drawing those lines is difficult though- take the example of a very elderly person who breaks their hip, goes into hospital, contracts covid, gets pneumonia and dies- it’s very reasonable to say that you could take the “contracts covid” bit out of the sentence and the outcome is the same, but how do you know? Plenty of people recover from fractured hips so who can say?

It’s also worth noting that the figures only count those within 28 days of a positive test result, and those on ventilators usually take longer than that to die, some people recover initially, go home and die of something they wouldn’t have had if they hadn’t had covid. So whilst there will definitely be people counted in the numbers who have tested positive but actually covid isn’t a factor, there will be those where it is definitely a factor who aren’t in those figures. Who knows if one cancels the other out?

A) take out Covid, that person died of pneumonia, they didn't die of a broken hip. And twas ever thus. Covid would most definitely be a factor in that example.

B) More or Less did an analysis of the difference of those who died of Covid (not with Covid) and those were not listed due to being outside 28 days despite Covid being a factor, and it did pretty much cancel out.