UK has had more deaths than births

[Gingernaut]

The population has officially shrunk.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57600757

The last time deaths outnumbered births was 1976

@NeilBuchananisBanksy

Environmentally it's excellent news.

Economically, the whole model will need to change. But it will anyway when climate change really starts to bite.

Childfree by choice- big part of that is for environmental reasons.

Once climate change starts to bite, it will be much much too late to navigate without serious loss of life, and displacement of people.

You can only abuse Mother Nature for so long before she LTBs.

I wasn't in the market for additional children anyway, but spending more time than not, trapped claustrophobically with my family is definitely a lido-killer.
It would be interesting to see how the profile of births has changed. I would suspect bias towards a first child and fewer siblings with the stress of home schooling, childcare and no respite from continuous company.

The pattern of deaths is different to usual with greater spikes and troughs of below average deaths. We know the average age of Covid death is marginally later than average, and a very substantial proportion have had the timing altered by months rather than being particularly premature.
While premature personal tradgedies have occured, a major issue in society is how we've deprived vulnerable people of love, care and quality of life in the final months before their own mortality caught up with them anyway.

@Gingernaut

The population has officially shrunk.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57600757

The last time deaths outnumbered births was 1976

Mission achieved. Maybe they'll start lifting some of the restrictions now then.

Society has changed. Children are far more of a burden now. When I was a child everyone walked to school without parents from the age of around 7 ish. We played out on the streets and in the plentiful parks and green areas. There wasn't much traffic, no need for pedestrian crossings. What was fields behind my parents house is now an industrial estate.
My mum walked to and from school from day one.
Now parents are frightened to let children play out. It is harder in lots of ways far more time consuming. Taking children here there and everywhere. Having to be available at all times. Knowing they can't leave home due to financial restraints, housing is too expensive. Seeing atrocities in a daily basis probably puts people off having kids. Plus higher expectations in terms of support from a partner, knowing relationships breakdown frequently and the realisation that it is extremely hard to be a single parent which is the reality for many (mainly female) parents.
Thinking you might be better staying childfree and the enjoying yourself, rather than giving up your freedom. Knowing it will be you and not your boyfriend/husband who ultimately lose freedom.

Regardless of peoples opinions on the matter, this fact will demand higher levels of immigration to keep the UK in the lifestyle to which it has become accustomed.

The problem for some with a shrinking population is that it makes labour - and hence people - more valuable.

Look at how the life of the average serf improved beyond belief after the Black Death ... much to the fury of the ruling classes.

It’s interesting when you look at the graph — the death rate rise is a relatively small blip, whereas the birth rate decline is part of a longer, more significant trend.

In terms of how the tax shortfall will be addressed if the birth rate continues to fall, the answer will likely be to increase immigration rates within the working population range in the short term.

It’s a disaster from an economic point of view. There will be fewer people working and more elderly people to support. We will have to accept more immigration to make up the shortfall.

Immigration will presumably be a harder fought battle when birth rates drop everywhere and there's more local jobs, less incentive to move abroad?

If you look at the historic graph the trend is up and down, so I think its more a one off, will bounce up, but the overall trend is a declining birth rate for sure.

The answer will also include the fact that people live longer and healthier lives, so will stay working longer.

@DGRossetti

Regardless of peoples opinions on the matter, this fact will demand higher levels of immigration to keep the UK in the lifestyle to which it has become accustomed.

The problem for some with a shrinking population is that it makes labour - and hence people - more valuable.

Look at how the life of the average serf improved beyond belief after the Black Death ... much to the fury of the ruling classes.

I was just going to post the same point about the black death and social revolution it brought about

@chaosrabbitland

this planet is so hugely overpopulated its not a huge problem ,

Except it is a huge problem. It's not as simple as global numbers, declining populations in some countries is a big deal with real implications, and having more people somewhere else doesn't help.

Bear in mind it's taken centuries for the ruling classes to scrape their way back from the damage the Black Death did, it's unlikely they're going to make the same mistakes twice.

Now they've established English as the de facto global language it's much easier for them to ship labour in and keep the peasants in their place.

... is one view you might have.

We are overpopulated and it’s a massive problem that’s not getting better. For the record I have no kids.

@Angelica789

It’s a disaster from an economic point of view. There will be fewer people working and more elderly people to support. We will have to accept more immigration to make up the shortfall.

Also fewer younger people to support. The mantra is always "who will look after the elderly".

Well all those kids everyone wants to have need feeding, clothing, educating, healthcare. They are not free.

I think it's a good thing that the UK population is decreasing and hopefully it will be a trend and not a blip. Maybe we can concrete over less of the countryside to build all the new houses we apparently need.

This has only happened because of the Prime Minister and his inaction in both March and September 2020 over the pandemic.

The difference is 7,000, and I am certain Mr Johnson's inactions caused more than that number of avoidable deaths.

Birth rate was already declining so it makes sense.

this planet is so hugely overpopulated its not a huge problem

Depends on the country. Take the UK, an ageing population is a problem. Who will do the jobs & pay taxes?

Regardless of peoples opinions on the matter, this fact will demand higher levels of immigration to keep the UK in the lifestyle to which it has become accustomed.

Yep

*Also fewer younger people to support. The mantra is always "who will look after the elderly".

Well all those kids everyone wants to have need feeding, clothing, educating, healthcare. They are not free.*

Of course they’re not free. That’s why nobody wants them and the birth rate is falling off a cliff. They’re bloody expensive but the costs fall mainly on parents. Pensioners cost the state far more than children.

It's funny I read one article and it says overpopulation is a disaster.

And then the next day one saying that in countries where the birth rate has really dropped they're really worried about what to do.

Countries with a large elderly population and less young people can and do have problems caring for the elderly.

I think it's better to have a middle road where it's not so fast that older people will not get decent care.

I think the disparity arises because one article is talking about the global population and one is talking about this country in particular. On a global level there are arguments that we are overpopulated. In terms of looking after our own interests, in this country, we need a growing population. A great answer would be to increase immigration from poorer countries to richer, shrinking western ones but that’s politically sensitive.

@aurynne

Fantastic. Fewer people is exactly what this planet needs.

Wrong - you’re ignoring the impact of immigration. Western populations have been shrinking for a couple of decades. Current population growth is mainly due to Asia and Africa so our birth rate dropping a little doesnt really change anything. Nevertheless the impact on the environment is due to the consumption patterns of more developed countries. A lot of the new people born in the above mention high growth continents don’t have much ecological impact because they’re malnourished, born quickly and die quickly. We would have an even bigger problems if all them aspires to Western living standards...

The other point is that it's women getting access to education reproductive rights and choice about who they are with and if they want children that lowers birth rates.

The way to reduce the global population and improve the lives of huge amounts of women children and men is to (somehow!) push on the situations of women.

Then you'll get a natural falling away of population. Rather than the sort of big bang somehow just massively reduce the birth rate which would mean a few generations having s terrible time, and with who knows what results from elderly people having a shit time, a widening between the haves and have nots, and more sinister things not out of the question globally.

Who wouldn't aspire to Western living standards though?

And what proportion of the population would willingly give them up?

A mix of things are a problem really

The economic system seems to mean everything has to keep getting more for it to work, and it's reliant on a large amount of people who are not well paid etc keeping it all going

Plus corrupt governments, and fairly widespread entrenched views of the place of women.