Has anyone else noticed that the weather forecast have been really inaccurate lately?

[Rhine]

My phone, my Apple Watch, the BBC and the MetOffice has forecast glorious hot sunshine here today, but I’ve just put my washing out to dry and it’s gone dark, clouded over and started to rain! Last week there was a day where rain was forecast all day and it was hot and sunny. On Saturday it was forecast to be sunshine and showers and it was cloudy and dark with that horrible fine wet rain all day! Non stop!

This is happening more and more often I’ve noticed. Has Covid affected their ability to forecast the weather accurately or something? If I got my job that wrong that often I’d be sacked!

Yes, planes not flying has reduced accuracy because they don't collect as much data from over the ocean.

I've noticed that aswell.
It's almost always much cooler than they predict.
And I agree about the rain.
I've been wondering if it's 'a thing'.
There is actually a whole board about the weather. We should have a look there.
Also @ohyoubadbadkitten
I believe that you are a weather expert (apologies if I'm mistaken) what are your opinions please?

@sirfredfredgeorge

Yes, planes not flying has reduced accuracy because they don't collect as much data from over the ocean.

Wow really? That’s interesting.

But planes are flying more frequently aren’t they? I’ve noticed more in the sky over the last few weeks.

Oh interesting sirfred

But planes are flying more frequently aren’t they? I’ve noticed more in the sky over the last few weeks

It's the transatlantic ones which matter most to us - that's where the weather comes from and where there is no land (so the planes do most of the data collection). The number of flights there is still absolutely tiny compared to what it normally is, and the planes that are flying now all fly the most efficient routes rather than flying different routes to avoid crashing into each other.

phys.org/news/2020-07-coronavirus-messing-weather.html

Yes! It's been really bugging me!! (Very irrational I know) but it's just completely wrong!

Wow! I had no idea about any of this, and was actually joking when I asked if Covid was the reason for the inaccuracy!

I've been thinking exactly this for the last couple of weeks. And it's always worse than forecast, not better. Supposed to be warm and sunny here all day today with a maximum 2% chance of rain later on.
It's currently grey and drizzly

Lately a weather app informed me that there would be no precipitation for 120 minutes. It was raining !!!

Yes! And it's ruining my washing schedule . But in all seriousness, the accuracy has been poor. Predictions of dry days and sunshine in my part of the UK have been so off it's laughable.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Yes, planes not flying has reduced accuracy because they don't collect as much data from over the ocean.

Very interesting, i had noticed the inaccuracies

I had the exact conversation with my friend yesterday. We were planning a long walk to sit in a beer garden on Saturday and it rained all day.
I had no idea the planes collect weather data, that’s so interesting.

Yes! I was out in the lovely sun yesterday painting the kids play house while my phone told me it was currently raining

We didn’t go to our caravan yesterday because rain was forecast all day - instead it was brilliant sunshine. Today is supposed to be sunny and just as we are packing it’s completely clouded over. Give me strength!

That's so interesting, I had no idea about planes gathering data.

I'd noticed the weather apps were well out over the last few weeks. Had no idea about the plane thing though!

Also on Saturday it told that the UV rays were ‘moderate to high’ but obviously it was really drizzly and overcast!

Why even bother forecasting the weather if they are unable to it properly?

This thread is so interesting, I have noticed the forecasts are way out but had no idea about planes collecting data- I assumed it was all done from satellites!

Omg yes, I look at the forecast a lot and it has been very unreliable thia last month or two. Not only that, but it constantly changes what it predicts for the future.

@missbunnyrabbit

Omg yes, I look at the forecast a lot and it has been very unreliable thia last month or two. Not only that, but it constantly changes what it predicts for the future.

Yes, it used to be fairly accurate but the long range forecast now changes on an almost hourly basis.

I’m going to put my hand up here and say I’ve been flying commercial aircraft round the world for over 20 years and did not fully appreciate the huge amount of information our aircraft send to the weather forecasters! They do it without any input from the pilots. Our aircraft are constantly transmitting many different nuggets of information at any one time by a variety of different methods. I am aware of the fact that if I so much as breathe wrong in the cockpit it’s all recorded and sent back to someone within the blink of an eye, and the aircraft itself is constantly reporting its own potential faults that need engineering input when we land. But I genuinely had no idea it was writing the weather forecast too! It all makes sense when you read up on it. A good knowledge of aviation terms and phrases is needed here, but this website explains how the date is collected.

I definitely think the BBC forecast has been way off the mark recently. I was looking forward to a week of sunshine a couple of weeks ago and barely saw the sun. A few showers in the morning last Thursday turned into a whole day of rain. They can't even match up with what is happening outside the window at that moment never mind forecast the future weather.

I'm not sure if it's worse than normal or if we are just noticing it more because of restrictions on our lives we are keen to plan things and have a lovely day out/in the garden.

The weather on my island when I play Animal Crossing is more accurate than actual forecasts...

I was saying this to my husband just yesterday, it's been wildly inaccurate recently! He disagreed with me and said I've just been checking it more frequently so noticing inaccuracies more so this thread is very satisfying! How fascinating about the aircraft data, I would never have thought of that.

Oh wow I’ve been thinking this since the end of May! Had no idea it was to do with COVID and air travel.
There’s been so many times I’ve been
looking at the forecast and looking out of the window and it’s been exactly the opposite! Hot sunshine? No it’s actually pissing it down!

Think the newspapers have run with these inaccurate forecasts and have published stories about fine weather and heatwaves for weeks lately that never materialised.