What does it mean when peeps say they're in a 'safe' Labour/Conservative area?

[TheLightSideOfTheMoon]

I don't really understand it.

I vote Green but keep being told that in my area you can only really vote Lib Dem or Tory.

My mother claims that last election only 17 people voted Labour in our area last election. This number changed to 13 when I saw her today.

Can thst happen?

Are areas 'safe' so it's pointless voting for anything else?

Surely they just count the votes up on the day? How can they say in advance who it's between?

Or is that a conspiracy thingie to make people think it isn't worth voting otherwise?

Safe just means the majority is so large that it's unlikely to change. I assume it's based on the idea that most people don't change their vote election to election. Obviously any seat could theoretically change and there have been upsets, it's just unlikely so parties don't pour their resources into those.

I live in a safe Tory seat. My MP is a very senior cabinet minister. He had a majority of over 16,000 votes at the last election.

My constituency has not returned a Labour MP since 1971.

Thank you.

That's pretty much what I thought it was.

I keep being told my vote is a 'wasted vote' and it's bugging me.

But I see why.

Last year 59.5% of my constituency voted Tory. A majority of 24,000 ahead of the Labour. Safe Tory seat. Will vote because I should but...

My constituency has been held by the same party since it was created in the early 80s. In the last general election that party got nearly twice as many as all the others added together. That's pretty normal here. I'd say it's pretty pointless voting for anyone else but I still do.

I keep being told my vote is a 'wasted vote' and it's bugging me.

It probably will be if you’re voting Green (and you’re not in Brighton!).

Look up your constituency details now Wikipedia and see what happened in the last few elections. If it’s a Tory stronghold with them getting 50,000 votes and Labour 45,000 and the Green 80 at the last election, your Green vote isn’t going to achieve anything.

Safe labour seat here for ..I don’t know..maybe 50 years

Keep voting with your heart regardless. UKIP didn’t (IIRC) get any MPs but were able to get a lot of publicity and airtime because of the share of the votes across the country that they had got.

Voting green will show that there is an undercurrent of people who care about the environment.

In politics a ‘safe’ seat is one in which a party has had such a large majority in previous elections that it is extremely unlikely that enough people would change their votes at the next election for any other party to win the seat.

For example the following two seats are both in Leicestershire, but are completely different. One is urban, very multicultural, and is considered a safe Labour seat. The other is rural, affluent, very white and is considered safe Conservative seat:

Leicester East : 2017 result
Labour 35,000 votes
Conservatives 12,000 votes
Everyone else 5000 votes
Labour majority 22,000 votes

Rutland & Melton : 2017 result
Conservatives 36,000 votes
Labour 13,000 votes
Everyone else 8000 votes
Conservative majority 23,000 votes

It’s possible, of course, that the Tories could win this year in Leicester East and Labour could win in Rutland, but I wouldn’t bet on it if I were you....

My MP got 30K votes, the rest put together got about19K..
Heis hard line Brexiteer Tory. Voted aganst Theresa's deal as it was to soft.
I will vote - but who far. Labour got 15K , so won't overturn them, Iand I won't give them my vote as it will be mis-interpreted. Lib Dem and Greens have an issue with women........

Our safe seat is if (in 2017) everyone who didn't vote Tory voted for the same, then the Tory would still have a majority of over 15k.

I live in a constituency with a massive Conservative majority - I think something like 64% majority in 2017. Ideally, I'd like to vote Labour, but I'm going to vote Libdem tactically as they are marginally more likely to eat into that majority. But, overall, it won't make any difference - this is one of the safest Tory seats in England.

I live in South Yorkshire. Every constituency is Labour. Most of them would have been considered safe in the past. I'm not sure what will happen next month.

In my town the Tories could field a pig in a hat and it would still be elected. In fact, looking at the gammony embarrassment currently representing us, I think this might already have happened.

If it's a "safe" seat, then either the Tory OR the Labour candidate, depending on location, ould basically come out and say they're best chums with the likes of Epstein, they've buried every ex-spouse they ever had under the patio, and they snort pigs' blood for kicks and still be re-elected. No point whatsoever in that case voting for anyone other than those two parties.

Wherever your heart might lie, your choices become either, keep the current regime, or attempt to vote in a new one, whatever lets you sleep at night. Though I'm personally a huge fan of actually looking at the evidence and facts and not just listening to the drivel the mainstream media vomits out on a daily basis.

Perspicacia - I think we have the same ham faced MP! Was he due to explode on 31 Oct?

However, "shocks" happen in every election - where high profile MPs drafted in to "safe seats" get beaten on the day.

Where I live was always considered a safe labour seat, but over the years, that has been whittled down to it really being quite close now.

I get annoyed when people don't vote. Depending where you get your figures from (for the actual %), around 1/3 of eligible voters didn't vote in each of the last 4 General elections. that could make a MASSIVE difference in so many seats.

I get annoyed when so many people refuse to vote, or vote 'tactically' rather than voting for the candidate they would like to get in, as it perpetuates the idea that nothing can change.
To my mind, if voters see that there are people who want the 'minor party' candidate to win, that will encourage others next time, who begin to believe that actually there are other people like me.

The fact that the mainstream media do it ALL the time, is particularly frustrating - as per the 'televised debate' tonight.

I'm in what WAS Cameron's constituency... solidly middle class Tory land.
It depresses me. I work in education, my kids are in education, nursing and medicine, and not one of our votes will make a difference :(

I'm still voting labour tho even tho I don't like Corbyn!

If your constituency is properly rock solid Tory (i.e. with more than 50% of the vote at every election since Thatcher) then you might as well vote Green because the larger their share of the national vote the more awareness and publicity they’ll get even if they only have one actual MP.

If however it has any possibility of being a real Tory/Lib Dem fight, (eg 40% Tory 35% Lib Dem 15% Labour 10 % Other) then you have a decision to make.

Two traditionally super safe Tory seats which will be interesting to watch this time around will be Beaconsfield where Dominic Grieve is standing as an independent and Hertfordshire South West where David Gauke is standing as an independent. So rather than the traditional Tory v Labour fight, we have Tory who will toe the party line on everything v Tory who drew the line at mad Brexit policy. Whilst I would never normally vote for a Tory, I would vote for Grieve/Gauke if I lived in either of those constituencies on the basis of picking the least worst candidate who might conceivably have a chance of winning.

@ClaudiaWinklepants, Oh yes. I was keeping my fingers crossed.

My constituency has been Tory since 1924. I weep, I really do! It's incredibly depressing. I usually 'protest vote' for the independent but it's not really a protest vote anymore given the independent has better policies than any of the mainstream parties..

I'll vote Labour this year just to even TRY to unseat the Tories, but given the Tories had a majority of 17000 last time.. sigh. Doesn't help that the Tory candidate is a complete cockwomble too, if he was even vaguely a decent person I'd feel better about it. The one we had before 1983-2010 was much better.

I live in a safe Tory seat. It’s depressing. The only time my vote has ever made a difference was the last referendum and I bitterly regret voting Leave. I’m not used to my vote mattering.

I’m not sure what to do at the next election. I’d like to vote Labour and at least try and whittle away the smug gits majority but I can’t stomach voting Labour whilst they are keeping quiet about anti-semitism (not Jewish btw).

My constituency has been Tory since its inception –think it received ~62% of the votes last GE –so I guess the seat's as 'safe' as it gets.

I also live in a Tory safe seat but will never, ever vote Tory. I'll continue to vote for what I believe in even if it's wasted, maybe one day it will change!