What does it mean when peeps say they're in a 'safe' Labour/Conservative area?

[TheLightSideOfTheMoon]

I don't really understand it.

I vote Green but keep being told that in my area you can only really vote Lib Dem or Tory.

My mother claims that last election only 17 people voted Labour in our area last election. This number changed to 13 when I saw her today.

Can thst happen?

Are areas 'safe' so it's pointless voting for anything else?

Surely they just count the votes up on the day? How can they say in advance who it's between?

Or is that a conspiracy thingie to make people think it isn't worth voting otherwise?

Our local Tory MP saw his majority reduced from nearly 5000 votes to just over 300 in the last election. I'm hoping we can get him out this time through tactical voting.

Our town has been Tory for decades.
My DD is not impressed that I won't vote green. She has a point but it would waste my vote.

My mother claims that last election only 17 people voted Labour in our area last election. This number changed to 13 when I saw her today.

Rather than taking gossip as gospel, you can check your own constituency results here:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/england

and see for yourself what the truth - or otherwise - is.

By the way, your mother is full of shit. The lowest result for Labour anywhere in the UK was 2664 in Orkney. If she wants to argue the toss, point her to : www.electoralcommission.org.uk/media/321 which is a spreadsheet of the 2017 results.

When the facts are two clicks away, there really is no fucking excuse for anything other in debate. It's hard to know who to be less impressed by ... people who spout bullshit, or people who swallow it without the most cursory of checks.

I’m in a safe Labour seat. Never been canvassed. The opposition don’t try and I don’t think the Labour candidate needs make any effort.

I won’t vote Labour and I will definitely vote as I believe it’s important but it does make me wish for some kind of change to our electoral system, an element of PR so I could feel like my vote counts for something.

Think of your vote as doing three things:

1. To elect a local MP who is your local go-between for political and governmental issues
2. To elect a person whose political affiliation contributes to a party's attempt at forming a majority government
3. Communicating your opinions and priorities to broader political bodies who want to assess moods and priorities.

So your green vote might not achieve items or 2 but a sizeable increase or decrease of green voters in one area, all areas, southern areas, etc will influence campaign stance and policies.

So it's never a wasted vote. You are still talking to the politicians even if your chosen person did not win.

Is there a percentage that makes a seat safe or marginal?

My area voted 47.5% Tory, 44.9% Labour in 2017. (The difference being about 1800 votes)

Yes I live in a very safe Tory seat. Doubt it will ever change

Is there a percentage that makes a seat safe or marginal?

No real absolute value - by definition there can be local factors in play. Even apparently impregnable majorities can be overturned if the prevailing mood is right. Look how Martin Bell overturned a whopping Tory majority in 1997 in Tatton, unseating Neil Hamilton:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Now I have met people who insist that never happened which is why it's so terribly important (as suggested upthread) to check your own reality and not allow others to spoonfeed you theirs.

Here's another beauty: Wyre Forest, where an independent campaigning for the local hospital managed to overturn an equally whopping Labour majority

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyre_Forest_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1990s

It's in the big parties - Labour/Tory - to let you believe that seats are safe. After all it saves them having to do their fucking jobs. But it's not impossible to cause upsets. But - and here's the crux of the matter - you have to register and then use your vote. No amount of Russell Brand psudeo-intellectual psychobabble is going to do the same damage as a single "X" in a ballot paper.

Register. Vote. It is that simple.

Yes I live in a very safe Tory seat. Doubt it will ever change

If everyone "thought" like that, then it won't.

I never cease to be amazed by the apparent number of people willing to put up with a bad situation because they really can't be arsed to do anything about it.

I live in a safe Labour constituency but it is also a strong leave area so it may change. I suspect the 10k majority will be a lot smaller in a few weeks. Things change.

1,800 is quite marginal. Lucky you.
Labour have a majority in my seat of over 20,000.

Even if you're in a safe seat, I would say vote for whichever candidate best matches your political views. UKIP only ever won one seat in Parliament, but the strength of their national vote was one of the factors that bounced David Cameron into committing to the referendum UKIP wanted. Even though it is very unlikely that the Greens will win any more seats, if their national vote increases then that can push the other parties in a more Green direction, as happened with UKIP.

*’ my town the Tories could field a pig in a hat and it would still be elected. In fact, looking at the gammony embarrassment currently representing us, I think this might already have happened

Yup, we’ve got one of those too.

A safe seat means a seat where the population habitually vote for a particular party. Obviously safe seats can still be lost but it’s unlikely without demographic change or political activity of some sort.

Safe Labour seat here. But the MP supported Remain and this is also a strong Leave constituency. The Brexit Party might fancy their chances.

UKIP never won a seat in Parliament @TalbotAMan . The MP briefly changed to UKIP. He was elected as a Tory.

I'm in a Labour safe seat, on 2017 they had 75% of the votes, Conservative was next with 12.2%.

Of course it can change, but it would be a real shock if it did.

I'm in a Labour safe seat, on 2017 they had 75% of the votes

But not 75% of the electorate ... given that 30% of people don't vote.

If we assume that statistic in your case, then Labour only got 52% of the vote.

Serendipity that's a really interesting link, thankyou. I've just found out that the majority in our traditionally safe seat last time was only 1399! That seems to have been kept very quiet by the local press. There may be interesting times ahead....

votes are also quoted as a percentage of those that voted those that don't vote are not counted
so if the votes are 20,000( present incumbent), 10,000, 5000 and 3000 and 2000 ( and 10,000 didn't vote)

the winning party 20,000 with always be said to have got 50% of vote even though it is only 40% of electorate

you can never say how those that didn't vote thought, it maybe that the non voters all supported or were happy with the winning candidates record so then he would have 60% of electorate, you would be very hard pushed to assume the non voters were vehemently against incumbent but didn't want to vote so all 10,000 that didn't vote would be against incumbent meaning he was wanted by only 40%
the only real thing you can assume about non voters is either they think there vote doesn't count as incumbent has too big a majority to overturn, they are reasonable happy with status quo so can't be bothered voting or they think all the candidates are the same or equally rubbish and can't be bothered voting

people who are either enthusiastic about incumbent or strongly opposed to incumbent tend to vote
spoiled papers are counted separately to non voters

I'm in a safe Tory seat, majority of over 18,000 at the last election.
I vote because you never know but I have never been canvassed by anyone other than the Tory candidate, never even had a leaflet through my door from anyone other than the Tory candidate.
If the opposing candidates are making no real effort to get their names and policies out there, then what hope is there?

I'm watching this election from abroad (and don't have a vote) and I'm not sure that any seat could be considered safe.

Historically safe seats have all been about party politics where the MPs toe the party line on election policies, but now neither party seems to have that internal solidarity.

It seems to be the most bizarre election ever, nothing about domestic policies and all about whether Boris can (and/or should) deliver Brexit or anyone trusts Corbyn to be PM. All wrapped up in a parliament of current MPs who have spent three years refusing to deliver what their constituents actually voted for and are at odds with either (or both) their party or electorate.

My gut feel is that Lib Dem and Green are noise, but there is a real risk that SNP might hold the balance of power - which will be interesting as no-one in England, Wales or N Ireland will have voted for them and they have a totally different agenda.

Most people in the UK spend longer every year choosing their car insurance than they do every five years (or so ) choosing their elected representatives.

How come we shop around for a better insurance deal, and yet are happy to carry on electing the same old faces time after time ?

If the capitalist agenda is correct, and everything is subject to market forces then that includes politicians as a given.

So rather then feel obliged to continue to vote for the same self-serving tossers why don't people shop around ? "CompareTheCandidate.com", "GoVote.com" and so on ?

Yep. Our constituency is a safe seat with more votes in the last election than all the other candidates put together.

I live in Southwest Norfolk...my MP is Liz Truss...overwhelming conservative majority.

I still vote because it is important to me, but it is completely meaningless in reality.