Can you see Wales becoming an independent country?

[hyweldda]

Can you see Wales becoming an independent country in the future?

Say if Scotland were to become independent following Brexit; I think it's looking increasingly likely.
Especially amongst younger people, and with more being educated in Welsh, the murmurs are growing stronger.

No, obviously not. Welsh economy and politics is vastly different to Scotland. I've never heard of any appetite for independence in Wales because it's so obviously unsustainable it's not a matter of conversation. She says conversing about it.

I can't see it ever happening. Those murmurs are barely a whisper in my area.

No, I can’t; Wales and Scotland are very different.

Cwtches, where abouts do you live?

feduup. Why so obviously unsustainable? That's not a very academic answer of course you can believe what ever you like; but you can't just say no because it's silly!

I sincerely hope not.

@hyweldda academic answer? You haven't exactly opened the discussion with an intelligent observation to rebuke, on mumsnet of all places. Sweeping statements of "younger more educated people making louder noises" based on what facts? A few people you know? What's academic about that? What industry in Wales could possibly prop up its economy? Wales didn't even have the intelligence Scotland had to vote to remain in the bloody EU and it is one of the biggest beneficiaries!!

Currently living in Neath Port Talbot, have also lived in Mid Wales and Carmarthenshire - never seen any real desire for Independence although some small areas of Carmarthenshire were more nationalistic.

No. Wales couldn’t economically sustain itself as an independent country.

Yes. I know what you mean OP- I'm hearing this from lots of really unexpected people. It's a serious conversation now, and it wasn't really discussed outside very ardent nationalist circles before. Also, the politicians talking about it on twitter- I don't think they would have entertained the idea 5 years ago.
(love your username btw)

Wales doesn't have the majority appetite for this at all, I genuinely can't see it happening. Much more likely for Scotland as its been part of their political landscape for so long and the real tenacious hunger for it might get them there...

More younger people are being educated through the medium of Welsh. Often in these schools they will be open to seeing the native literary and cultural traditions of the country, they may also be better versed in Welsh history. Being educated in these fields generally makes people more inclined to support independence, as they can question the status quo by seeing that Wales is not the same as England.

That's my reasoning for the discussion starter.

@hyweldda where are you from?

@hyweldda where are you from?

I think that's quite a weak argument to make, firstly isn't it about 1 in 5 that speak Welsh and it declined between 2001 and 2011. Welsh is not a language of industry, it will not allow it to prosper nationally though yes of course it can encourage nationalism but nationalism is not always about independence. Also in how much detail have you looked at this, in Powys options for welsh medium education (and education in general unfortunately!!) are much more limited. I've worked in/with Cardiff and Aber unis and I have never heard any serious academic debate for independence. Even the revival of Welsh nationalism in the early twentieth century was not about pushing independence but instead identity thus the creation of Church in Wales, National Library of Wales, the university etc. Protection of the language has been about cultural preservation. Home rule had very little support as is the case now I would surmise. And all of this is in contrast to Scotland who have a very different political history with England and where language has played a much more limited role.

Wales couldn't survive as an independent nation- perhaps if it joined the EU. But we are Brexiting because, against both my hope and expectation, Wales went for Leave. Perhaps it thinks tbe cash it gets from Brussels will be replaced by cash from Westminster. Laugh. My. Arse. Off. If it wasn't so sad.

@cwtches123 sorry was making myself a cuppa I'm from Cardiff, lived in Pembrokeshire for a bit as a child but now recently moved abroad again but return to Cardiff every month

I was fully of the opinion that it could never happen, and I probably still am. However it was pointed out to me that Wales exports huge amounts of natural resources to England in the form of water and renewable energy. As a member of the EU it may be more possible than I imagined.

@confusedandemployed Wales as a collective voted to leave the EU. So there wouldn't be the argument Scotland has to leave the UK to remain in the EU. I'd also be keen to see how sustainable those figures actually are in comparison to the funding it gets from government.

@feduuup Wales was the first industrialised country in the world. Huge sums of money were made, however I wonder in which direction this money flowed? Perhaps if the structural issue of the Welsh economy being aimed at making England richer were revolved, then we would have sufficient funding.

The idea that Wales cannot afford to be independent because England props it up is a little ill thought out. The UK as a whole has one of the biggest deficits in the world which is funded by borrowing; so really, England can't afford England's own spending either. Remove London from the equation of England and they're just as in the red as Wales would be. My rambling point being, that funding and deficits can be altered, and whichever angle you view it from, none of the UK is in the black.

Remove London from the equation of England

I’m not sure we can just ignore it really though!

What about the fact you can't really travel north to south because of the geography?

@hyweldda you're falling into the trap of nostalgia and nationalism, whether or not Wales was once the first industrialised country has no bearing on what is capable in the world we live in today, that area of industrialisation was not sustainable thus its relatively short lived success. Just go to Merthyr to see how that's thriving today... I appreciate people blame that on thatcher and while I am not one of her advocates the industry was not sustainable. National economics can not be compared to household economics and deficits are part and parcel of economics on the world stage. I will ask again, what figures do you know suggest Wales a) could sustain itself b) has the appetite for independence. I am familiar with Cardiff/Glamorgan, Ceredigion and Powys and have never, ever come across anyone discussing the desire for independence nor heard of any nation wide polls. Wales and Scotland are not comparable. Scotland voted to remain in the EU, Wales did not, there is simply no way it could stand completely alone.

(And I believe the majority know this which is why it is not usually a point of discussion!)

@feduuup

Sure, let us put nostalgia aside. Deficits are indeed a parcel of economics on the world stage, however you seem to have ignored my previous point that even at a UK wide level, we cannot afford what we spend. Whilst of course this does invalidate your view that Wales' inability to afford it's budget is a major problem; it does show the general lack of understanding that even England can't afford itself.

When discussing whether or not Wales has appetite for independence, I am not in anyway suggesting that they currently do. The figure seems to be around 10% at the moment, but things do change. I wonder if perchance you were to ask the average Scot in the 1970s if they thought independence would be a viable option, I doubt many would agree. As with all things political and economic, scenes change relatively quickly. Perhaps if Scotland were to go for independence then that would provide sufficient impetus for the discussion of the topic-not to shut it down for being so obviously unsustainable.

The UK as a whole was warned strongly that Brexit would cause economic loss. Many people put that aside and do not really care- there is always more to a political decision than pure economic theory.

@hyweldda I can't argue with your last post, unfortunately it is just that, an emotional response rather than a logical one which has had a devastating impact on Western politics the last 3 years. These, minority in Wales currently, opinions are coming from emotional less educated people (IMO), not the supposedly educated people you mention in your OP.