Thank you so much for your response, it was really useful!
It's very possible Probation do not yet know what hearing will take place, and would depend on a few things. When was he recalled? And am I right in saying he's now being investigated for further offences where you are the victim? If so, the parole board are HIGHLY unlikely to release until these charges are concluded. Either by conviction or not guilty/charges are dropped. Until they know the outcome of that case, the argument being they can't fully assess the risk he poses.
He was arrested in May, then sectioned, then has been in prison since. Bail ends at the end of August. Yes, harassment & criminal damage against me - the police made it sound like they wouldn't proceed with the case if he got recalled, as he wouldn't get time added. This was my preference, my daughter is so angry with me about it that I'd rather not go to court (plus, she can't really be looked after by anyone else so it would be difficult logistically) - but now they're saying they will proceed due to probation not making it clear what's happening, and will interview him in prison. So what you're saying makes sense, though they didn't make this clear at first. It's quite a clear cut case - threats to kill via text, lots of witnesses, a huge boot mark on my front door etc. we were under MARAC and I had a non-mol years ago so lots of history & everyone agrees the risk is super high when he's unwell like this.
If you are identified as at risk from him, which it sounds like you are, then I would very much encourage you to make contact with the probation officer. Part of the job is to put together a plan to manage risk upon any re-release and certain conditions can potentially be put in place to manage that risk, for example, a licence condition not to contact you. This would need to be discussed as obviously I don't know the details of his case/risks so would very much be dependent on that.
Oh fantastic! That's great news. I don't actually know who his probation officer is, though. Can I just email the local office, do you think?
I would also be expecting a re-referral to social services upon any expected release by the probation officer, as they would need to be ensuring your daughter is safeguarded from any risks so I suspect that won't be the last involvement you have with them.
I'd welcome this! I had no contact from them at all when he was released previously. I asked for guidance re contact & they wouldn't help, so I just insisted upon supervised contact myself.
If he is convicted of offences against you, depending on the new sentence he receives (has to be over 12 months) you will be contacted by a victim liaison officer who would work with you and liaise with the probation worker so you are kept up to date with potential release and ways to safeguard you and your daughter.
I can't see him getting over 12 months for what he did (unless due to recall). Do you think recall is likely? I thought it was a sure thing (though I think it would be better spent in psychiatric hospital - I have a degree in criminology & don't think prison really prevents recidivism, certainly not for people like him where it's clearly caused by mental illness), but I'm not so sure he will be recalled now.