"Violence against women a ‘national emergency’ in England and Wales"

So why not start a thread about the CSEW (which they themselves say aren't reliable) figures?!

No, the CSEW says only one set of figures - those ending Mar 22- are not official stats because they only cover six months. All the rest of the numbers for all the years from 1987-2021 are official stats and are reliable.

CSEW is always more reliable than police crime data.

Haven’t rtft but wondering why this chart seems to go against reports

Will read and see what’s going on

This thread is about VAWG and how it is an “emergency” based on a Guardian article that uses mostly unexplained estimates with a few police data points to give the impression that VAWG is at an epidemic and increasing.

The CSEW official statistics are relevant to this because they don’t support the Guardian article at all. They are in direct opposition.

How can I agree with a journalist that such an epidemic and emergency exists when they haven’t presented any reliable data to support?

Telling people stuff doesn't work. It doesn't change their reality. Chances are they won't believe it, but even if they do, it does nothing to create actual changes in the person listening. If a person knows something is a problem, and does it anyway, either they don't care, or something is preventing them doing the right thing (probably something internal.)

They need to have different experiences, see different examples, and have different beliefs systems to create change.

So why not start a thread about the CSEW (which they themselves say aren't reliable) figures?!

The article is about the police and reported crimes.

So for instance there doesn't seem to be any indication of the difference in numbers between reported crimes of violence and the number that reach court and (particularly in relation to rape) the number of convictions.

Well yes, the ONS repeatedly states the police crime data is not reliable for trend analysis because of changes in reporting, changes in how they count crimes and changes in laws.

The police crime data are not official statistics, as they only count reported crimes, the CSEW is more reliable and are official statistics because it is anonymous. It is well known many segments of society will not report crime to the police.

This is true, but it does require both parents to be committed. Mums are also implicated in relationship problems.

The problem there is, it's really hard to have a solid parenting relationship with someone when your romantic relationship broke down. They aren't usually totally independent things. It takes a lot of self-restraint. And when things are bad, it does tend to mean the fathers back off, not just because of their own comfort but because it starts to affect the kids.

Tbh I think the main solution to this is not to have kids with someone you don't think you can have a solid relationship with long term. Which for a lot of people means, don't have sex with people you couldn't see yourself parenting with.

The report found child sexual abuse and exploitation has surged by more than 400 per cent between 2013 and 2022.

I dont know which is more depressing that it has really increased that much, or whether it indicates that more young people are prepared to report abuse.

The chart below actually belongs with my post above about the increase is sexual violence. But again this may reflect a greater willingness to report that an increase in attacks.

The immigration thing is interesting and there’s a discussion over on Twitter atm where those raising the possibility that immigration from countries where women are not treated as human might contribute to higher violence against women are being called racist because “it’s male violence that is the issue and not race”.

What I genuinely don’t understand (and perhaps someone can help me out) is if mvawg is considered to be a social issue that can be improved via education / reduction of access to porn / and generally changing male attitudes towards women then surely those men who have come from countries where attitudes towards women are far far worse than here (Afganistan / Iran etc.) are more likely to treat women less well than someone who was born and raised here or someone who comes from another country where women are treated relatively well. Otherwise aren’t we just saying that male violence is endemic everywhere and there’s nothing to be done about it?

Yes, but the report that these articles are talking about are the police figures.

Obviusly there is a different conversation to be had about why there is a difference between those report / recorded as a crime and those compiled on household surveys to provide an estimate.

No, you don’t have that. I’m looking at the ONS and I am not seeing any epidemic of violence. The statistics show violent incidents have decreased from 4.5 million in 1995 to 1.5 million in 2022 (per latest ONS release)

So what is the basis of saying it is an emergency?

If it were 1994, then it would be an emergency, but today? With a trend line that is like a black diamond ski slope down ?

Oh gosh, have we got an "NAMALT" going on?

VAWG is a huge problem. Please don't try to minimise it.

If your “it” refers to the prevalence of violence, then yes it mostly male violence, but everything I am seeing on ONS official stats and not mysterious Guardian estimates says that violence overall has significantly decreased by two thirds since 1995. So hooray MEN for being less violent.

if you look at the actualy figures, domestic violence has decreased in the last year of so.

the latest CSEW says no change in domestic violence since 2020.
”The number of victims of stranger violence fell by 43% compared with the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) year ending March 2020, while there was no change in the number of victims of acquaintance and domestic violence.”

The big and unpleasant fact is the increase in sexual violence….

ONS says no significant change in sexual assault either. See image

In my personal experience this is very true.

On that note, I also wonder about steroids. Having a gym body seems to be the fashion now so I wonder if more men are using them.

Cocaine is awful and seems to have got quite affordable.
Maybe there needs to be a grown up conversation about how to tackle it. It appears we have effective decriminalisation at the moment which is the worst of both worlds IMO.

Not sure if it is in the Guardian report but if you look at the actualy figures, domestic violence has decreased in the last year of so. (I first became aware of this when Women's Aid etc., no longer said 2 women a week were victims of domestic violence.)

The big and unpleasant fact is the increase in sexual violence and the level of violence in teenage boys.

And no it has nothing to do with boys growing up with single mothers.

It is about the culture of the boys as groups or gangs.

Whether this is learnt behaviour from pornography, or Andrew Tate or whatever eg Donal Trump's language and some rap, this is what influences boys.

And I doubt even if there is the so called "male figure" to provide a better role model, we know this is just an empty statement, because just like the increase in knife crime amongst increasingly young boys, they only listen to each other.

When you think that Scotland (not exactly a role model to refer to!)) actually has a law that says young men up to the age of 25 aren't mature enough to know that committing a sex crime is wrong, then we need to be looking a a society where safeguards are put in place because of that threat to women and girls.

Agree, it can’t be immigrants as violent crime has dropped significantly from its peak in 1995 to today while immigration has increased significantly since 1995.

It can’t be the internet as violent crime dropped from 4.5 million incidents in 1995 to 1.5 million incidents in 2022.

If the internet has any influence on violent crime, it would be a preventative one.

Yes.
It is impossible to get any support for this too. Much of this in my opinion is related to the effects of austerity and lack of support from professionals for parents that are struggling.
And it's not as simple as saying the parents aren't doing it right. Dealing with violence from children is very hard.

The Guardian article mostly used very high estimates without saying how these estimates were calculated.

The stats it does use refer to police recorded incidents but the latest ONS CSEW states the recent increase in police recorded incidents are due to better reporting of violent crime, not an increase in crime.

“Recording improvements have driven rises in violent crime recorded by the police
In contrast to the long-term downward trend of Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) violence, police recorded violent crime has increased between the year ending March 2013 and the year ending March 2022, with 2.1 million violent offences recorded in the latest year (Appendix tables, year ending June 2022). This was the highest in a 12-month period since the introduction of the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002. These increases are thought to be driven largely by improvements in police recording practices. For more information on recording improvements and comparing police recorded violence and CSEW violence estimates, see section 10.”