New statistics realised of reported murders of trans people

Quantitative illiteracy, combined with fear of the very vicious activists?

I did some rough calculations for Europe (which could be wrong as I have a bad cold) with the 16 reported trans victims in 2023. Suppose the trend continues to the end of the year so that the total number of trans victims of homicide for 2023 is, say, 22.

The overall homicide rate in Europe is 3 in 100 000 and the total European population size is around 742-745 million.

It's hard to get estimates of the trans population size, but I used a low estimate of 0.6% of total European population (as that favours the original argument that the rate is high; other estimates are 2-3%). If you use these data together you get an expected rate for trans homicides between 133 and 134 per year.

That is much higher than the actual rate. It's unlikely that so many of the victims would be unidentified as trans that we would climb past those figures by 1/1 2024 .

If this is correct it is good news for transgender people as their demographic is, on the overall level, fairly safe from homicide.

I think your assumptions there are likely to be correct.

The way intersectionality is often used now really annoys me, because we are not told how much each of the intersecting forces influences the thing we are evaluating, say, homicide rates. Instead, the implicit suggestion is that each of them always worsens the overall rate.

But that is not something we can just assume. It needs research, and it is quite possible that in some cases the findings are that only one of the forces we are looking at matters.

Also, to study the effect of being transgender for the homicide victimisation data, we should ideally begin by comparing people who are otherwise exactly the same except for their declared gender identity or sex.

So compare, say, a trans woman prostitute from a racial minority working in a certain area with a male prostitute from the same racial minority working in the same area or a female prostitute from the same racial minority working in the same area.

This should tell us how much race, sex and gender identity each matter in the final outcome.

Then, depending on what we find, do further analysis about how people end up in prostitution and if that process differs for transgender women, men, and women, to see if more indirect discriminatory forces are at play here.

That is the ideal and we can't usually quite get there, but good data and careful methodology should get us fairly close to that.

The point about presenting these numbers surely must be to suggest that they are particularly high AND that the killings are based on the victim being trans.

But there is data suggesting that neither of these can be shown to be correct.

Where we do have relatively good data on homicide rates (for all and for men and women etc.) and the likely size of the groups for which we wish to compare the numbers we find that the transgender demographic is a safe one, with rates of homicide lower than the overall average and certainly lower than the male overall rate.

I calculated, for the US and 2022 what numbers of killings of transgender individuals would have been expected if that sub-population had the same risk of becoming a homicide victim than the general population. That expected number was around 120, while the actual number was around 30-40.

Even if not all trans homicide victims are recorded as having been trans it seems unlikely that the true number would have exceeded 120. In my opinion.

So, overall trans people are quite safe which is great.

It's also the case that most transgender people are killed for similar reasons the average homicide victim is killed, i.e., not necessarily for being transgender. Yet we are expected to draw the conclusion that it is the latter in all the cases. I am certain that some killings of trans people are hate crimes based on transphobia, just as some killings of women are based on just misogyny, but the activists argue that for all trans killings.

I am not even remotely convinced that men who use trans prostitutes are surprised by what they find.

I think men kill prostitutes because it’s easy for them to do so.

I'll save you some time. The number provided doesn't indicate a higher risk for trans people but the number alone isn't particularly informative and what's needed is for studies to be carried out to collect relevant data. Now, if only that could happen. I'd support such data collection and I suspect most on here would agree.

😂

@NoMoreRedWineforFreda

Thanks for sharing the link on Aidan. What a tragic waste of such a beautiful, talented soul. His poor mum, my heart goes out to her.

It's not clear how often that happens outside places like Thailand as mentioned by a PP.

There is certainly a market for trans prostitutes and I wouldn't assume that most of these men don't know exactly what they are buying.

This.

Well you'd think but they probably enrage their attackers more than women do. The sort of guy who's desperate enough to pay for sex isn't going to be impressed which what he 'bought' was what it said on the tin.

Seeing as 99.9% of prostitute users are other males, you'd have thought a TW would have better physical defenses against being harmed on the job compared to women.

I found this useful report on knife crime incidence in England and Wales:

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04304/SN04304.pdf

It says:

"In the year ending March 2022, Home Office data shows there were 261 homicides (currently recorded) using a sharp instrument, including knives and broken bottles. This meant sharp instruments were used in 40% of the 594 homicides that occurred in 2021/22."

It doesn't mention the number of victims who were young people. However, according to the Ben Kinsella trust, 99 of the victims were under 25. (It gives a higher figure of 282 for the number of stabbing victims in the same period.)

https://benkinsella.org.uk/knife-crime-statistics/

There is a really moving video on the ITV website that is a series of images with Aidan’s voice over.

He sounds like a gentle, creative soul, his poor mam, Sonya, must be devastated.

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2023-07-04/his-life-cant-be-forgotten-familys-tribute-to-artist-as-killer-jailed

’His heart belonged at sea’

We had Trans Activists rushing to claim this as proof of #TransGenocide, vigils by football clubs etc, when tragically there are many teenagers knifed to death and we rarely get the same reaction.

Absolutely.

<side eye at relative who posted all over FB that they were attending various Brianna vigils>

Yes I had looked him up too, when I read the 2022 table.

Here’s a couple of different trans activists claiming Aidan’s death for their Trans Day of Remembrance stats last year:

https://tdor.translivesmatter.info/reports/2022/01/03/zen-black_downpatrick-county-down-northern-ireland-united-kingdom_29ec035e

We don’t yet know anything about the two accused except they are a ‘girl and a boy aged 16’.

For all we know, one, or even both, are trans themselves.

There has been one other recent murder, in NI in 2022, that transactivists have claimed as a trans victim, but there is only one photo of the victim in gothy make up, and all his family call him by his birthname, Aidan Mann, and use male pronouns.

He had an alter ego name on social media (Zen Black) but it’s not a female sounding name and it was his professional name (it’s not uncommon for tattooers to have a sort of ‘stage name’).

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/funeral-of-man-stabbed-in-downpatrick-to-be-a-celebration-of-all-the-good-things-he-stood-for/41218499.html

https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/aidan-mann-man-admits-killing-26802643.amp

The perpetrator was suffering a serious psychiatric illness and Aidan just happened to be wrong place, wrong time. The perp pled guilty so it wasn’t much of a news story (it’s generally the trial reports that garner attention to a murder case).

Yip and some probably particularly enraged when the appropriate hole isn't available.

It really tells you nothing.

There's a lot of complexity around trying to compare murder rates of trans and non-trans prostitutes, largely because the data isn't collated.

I did find an interesting piece of academic research about prostitute murders in the UK. In a 26-year period, 110 sex workers (ie prostitutes) were murdered while engaging in sex work. Another 70 sex workers were murdered during that period, but not while engaged in sex work.

Note that of the 110 victims, 105 were women, two were men and three were trans (I assume m2f). Here's the pertinent bit from the website:

As part of a Wellcome Trust funded project reviewing the occupational risks of sex workers compared to those in other “risky” professions, my colleagues Dr Lucy Platt, Stewart Cunningham, Pippa Grenfell and Dr PG Macioti and I analysed a database of sex worker homicides in the UK between 1990 and 2016. The data are curated by National Ugly Mugs, a reporting mechanism for crimes against sex workers. In the absence of a comprehensive police database, we believe that it may be the most accurate existing resource for understanding these extreme crimes. Of the 180 victims in the database, we classified 110 as known occupational homicide cases – that is to say, they were murdered while engaging in sex work.
We found that women accounted for the clear majority of victims (105), with only two male and three trans victims. Overall, the vast majority of victims (85) were also street-based sex workers.
This trend remained consistent during the decades 1990-1999 and 2000-2009 even when total number of reported homicides nearly doubled (from 28 between 1990-1999 to 50 in 2000-2010), reflecting the increased vulnerability of street-based sex workers.

https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/expert-opinion/sex-work-still-most-dangerous-profession-data-suggests-so

And we know it already but since trans activists are also desperate to promote men's rights to buy sex, it's not the conclusion they draw.

Quite.

You only have to look at the massive increase in searching in the porn catergory of "trans" to see that there will be considerable demand. This has been going on for years.