Living next to asylum seeker HMO, ask me anything

Only 4-5% of small boat migrants have been returned since 2018. And only an estimated 1% of them are genuine refugees.

The 1% is a statistic I have not seen before, and cannot find now. Where is it from?

I am comfortable with the level of charitable support DH and I provide, thanks very much. I would show the same level of welcome to asylum seekers as to anyone else in my ‘naice’ village, and stand up for them in the event of trouble.

One cannot be all things to all people.

Sorry, got a migraine and misread your post. I've posted again with the 1% statistic. It originates from the House of Commons library, from a briefing on small boat crossings. Google 'how many small boat migrants have been returned since 2018' and it will come up in the AI overview with links.

This originates from a recent piece in the Times from a Home Office whistleblower. https://www.thetimes.com/uk/law/article/one-in-100-asylum-claims-are-real-whistleblower-claims-d8768mjnx

No worries, sorry about your migraine!

So that 1% is a claim from an anonymous whistleblower. . The Times article is behind a paywall where I cannot read it, so I cannot judge the claim. I can see that it contrasts sharply with official HO statistics.

(Everyone reading needs to be aware that those arriving on the boats must apply for asylum in the usual way. Currently something under half of applications for asylum are being granted.)

I am not aware of anyone who thinks the boats are a good idea. People smuggling is abhorrent. I think everyone would like to see the boats disbanded.

The whistleblower was quite specific about what is going on, with claimants using the same script and BS story, such as Iraqis pretending they'd been in a relationship with a prime minister's daughter, Pakistanis all claiming they'd been in a gay relationship with the same man, Bangladeshis claiming to be dissidents of a group they know nothing about.

You can read a good thread on X by this ex-detective: (2) Donna-Louise on X: "He also said that “hundreds” of claims from Pakistanis were based on the assertion that they were in fear of their lives in their home country because of their gay relationship with the same man who had provided letters supporting their claims." / X

Can you provide a link to the statistics that support this, many thanks

But nevertheless more asylum seekers being returned than last year (39,000). So an improving picture.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-march-2026/how-many-people-are-returned-from-the-uk

6.1 Returns of small boat arrivals
……..A total of 8,427 people who arrived on a small boat between 2018 and the YE March 2026 have been returned from the UK…….

end quote

A quick add up of arrivals (reducing the number to 10k for 2026 as the above talks about to March 2026 rather than September) comes to 202,633 small boat arrivals.

8,427 returns out of 202,633 arrivals (8,427/202,633 x 100) =4.159 %

Older versions of the government report actually stated the 4%. It has been removed but not much has changed.

The Government does not deport to Afghanistan or Sudan (it also says that on their website) so those nationalities are going nowhere. Maybe doing the migrant hokey kokey with in, out, in out, one in, one out with France deal.

Look carefully at that information. It does not show 39,000 asylum seekers leaving/removed. See the explanation at the bottom that asylum seekers will be among those numbers.

17,000 were refused entry to the country. Perhaps a passport, visa or criminal issue. Many voluntary returns will be people whose visa has expired (student, work, holiday etc). This data doesn’t tell us how many people seeking asylum have been removed. We do know for the small boat asylum seekers it is around 4% as detailed in the post above.

Germany deports to Afghanistan.

I've worked with a lot of asylum seekers. Never yet come across one that has provided these reasons. In my role I see the record of information that is given at the initial interview, so I'm not just basing it on their word either.

How many men granted asylum for being gay later apply to bring their wife and kids? That would be an interesting freedom of information statistic.

Ah, the usual virtual signalling from the average middle - so rife on MN and so predictable.

Not really - merely spin. Numbers soared under the Labour government and remain far higher than in 2023. Essentially, the government is now trying to fix a problem they created.

The % of asylum claims granted by the UK is roughly double that of France, when adding appeals to initial applications. That's one of the pull factors which Macron talked about.

However, we know how active the immigration lawyers are in fighting to enable their clients to stay in the UK even if they are rapists, murderers and drug dealers. Another thread detailed the activities of Garden Court lawyers in particular. There's a lot of money in this game.

A response to a deliberately provocative comment is not virtue signalling.

The peak backlog on deciding asylum claims was 134,000. This was reached in June 2023. The backlog is now under 40,000 and falling.

Yes, the backlog is falling, probably because they're rubber stamping them. How do you speed up decision making? You allow, allow, allow. I used to work in something similar and that's how it works.

However this is not what the public wants. And clearing the backlog like this is actually another pull factor.

As I said, I've never once come across someone claiming asylum on the basis of their sexuality. That's not to say it doesn't ever happen, but I don't believe the previous poster who is claiming that it's a very common abuse of the system and that 99% of claims are fake.

The use of the term 'virtue signalling' related to the claim that you would like asylum seekers in the area in which you live, yet have done nothing to facilitate that.

No, the proportion of claims that are successful is also falling sharply. AI has pulled data from HMG for me showing that in the year ending March 2026 around 40% f claims were successful (Labour government).

The peak year for successful claims was 2022 when 77-79% of claims were successful (Tory government).

So Labour has cut the rate of successful claims nearly in half, from the Tory peak.

The backlog has been 'cleared' by failing to process a substantial number of applications correctly. This has been highlighted in the UN report that highlighted the alarming failings of the UK asylum system under Labour.

"The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) published a critical audit revealing a rapid, record-breaking decline in the quality standards of asylum decision-making."

Here's a lay summary of the issues
www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/stay-informed/articles/home-office-asylum-decisions-seeing-significant-decline-in-quality/

Unfortunately, that's incorrect. Unsuccessful claims are frequently reversed at the time of a second decision due to errors made at the time of the initial decision.