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To think climate change will force a complete rethinking about immigration?

210 replies

OneMoreBanana · 13/08/2026 10:07

I'm not sure how many people, on the ground or in government policy making, have connected the dots here.

The climate crisis disproportionately affects the global south, where average temperatures are hotter, infrastructure less developed and available economic resources for mitigation lower. This is already making life in some areas, that have previously supported human communities for thousands of years, near impossible. There is talk of whole cities having to be abandoned.

The same crisis is primarily created by the industrialised countries of the global north, whose per capita emissions far outweigh those of less industrialised countries.

So if/when the large scale exodus of millions of people from no-longer-habitable environments becomes inevitable, two questions arise: Is it MORAL to disallow those people asylum in countries like the UK? And is it PRACTICABLE to do so - when the "small boats" issue becomes an increasingly large number of increasingly large boats, do we literally just view it as warfare and gun them down, or what?

These questions apply regardless of how you feel about immigration currently. If you are a hardline Brexiteer or otherwise strongly for controlling and reducing immigration, can you see a point in the future where it will no longer be tenable, either morally or practically, to maintain that position? And if you are liberal on immigration, can you see a point where having to be even more liberal will mean letting go altogether of many aspects of the UK's (and other countries') "identity"?

Interested in a range of perspectives - I think there's a whole bunch of sacred cows that may end up slaughtered by this. However if you believe that climate change either isn't happening or isn't due to human activity, please just jog on past and grow a brain cell or two. Life is too short.

OP posts:
Caniweartheseones · 13/08/2026 16:46

Yes the English will move to Scotland and Scotland will become independent finally. As well as sell water at high prices to English left behind.

TheABC · 13/08/2026 16:38

There's hints that the Gulf Stream might collapse. If that happens, we will struggle to maintain any food production in this country, at which point people are more likely to leave than stay.

The flip side of shifting climate change is that Africa has had a lot more rain this year in the Sahara belt whilst we've been burning.

I wouldn't be so sure that Europe will keep attracting immigrants.

EmberR · 13/08/2026 16:27

Great book and very much worth reading @OneMoreBanana

www.theguardian.com/wellness/2026/jul/29/sarah-wilson-book-interview

EmberR · 13/08/2026 16:22

Just read the book “I eat the stars” by Sarah Wilson. That answers your questions

RafaistheKingofClay · 13/08/2026 15:56

Kepler22B · 13/08/2026 10:15

I think as we have seen with Italy and Spain there will be a hard closing of boarders.

And if climate change does become a global disaster then I think the UK will do the same.

What makes you think all of the U.K. will be habitable?

OneMoreBanana · 13/08/2026 15:56

Goingmadddd · 13/08/2026 12:13

Why growth though? It’s a serious question. Why does the economy always have to grow?

I think this is a massively important question - possibly the most important question underlying the whole crisis.

And it's also a proxy for an even more fundamental question: Why do we have to keep getting richer. Or EVEN (for the many who don't feel that the current state of the economy is making them any richer): Can we realistically expect to avoid getting poorer?

Humanity is currently trying to maintain two sets of completely contradictory, mutually exclusive priorities. We need economic growth to keep getting richer or even just to stay as we are; but economic growth is largely achieved by the consumption of energy which fuels climate change. We need a growing population to fuel that economic growth; but the planet is overpopulated and that is a cause of climate change. We need people to CONSUME things to maintain that economic growth; but every act of consumption contributes to climate change.

I can't help feeling that the massive elephant in the room here is that humanity as a whole just needs to get a lot poorer, and all talk about addressing the crisis will be just that - talk - until someone is willing to say this out loud.

Now there's a lot of detail hidden in that as a whole. It's tempting to say that as inequality has spiralled so much over the last few decades, the entire question should be addressed by reducing the wealth of the super rich, stopping them using private jets etc. That's probably disingenuous, both in terms of practicality of implementation and the amount of emission reduction achieved. I'm certainly up for starting with that, but I also suspect that anyone living a halfway comfortable middle class life in an industrialised western country needs to accept getting poorer too. I'd also say there's a lower limit of living standard that shouldn't be expected to go any lower. We shouldn't expect to address this by making people who barely have enough to eat already have even less.

But these are political questions, not technological ones, and depend upon one's whole attitude to economic individualism vs collectivism, liberty, redistribution, state protection vs internationalism etc.

As it is - and as seems to be agreed to by most on this thread - the "getting poorer" will happen, but just in a random chaotic way that we don't have any control over, because no one wants to talk about it as an accepted reality.

OP posts:
chirrupybird · 13/08/2026 15:33

OneMoreBanana · 13/08/2026 10:07

I'm not sure how many people, on the ground or in government policy making, have connected the dots here.

The climate crisis disproportionately affects the global south, where average temperatures are hotter, infrastructure less developed and available economic resources for mitigation lower. This is already making life in some areas, that have previously supported human communities for thousands of years, near impossible. There is talk of whole cities having to be abandoned.

The same crisis is primarily created by the industrialised countries of the global north, whose per capita emissions far outweigh those of less industrialised countries.

So if/when the large scale exodus of millions of people from no-longer-habitable environments becomes inevitable, two questions arise: Is it MORAL to disallow those people asylum in countries like the UK? And is it PRACTICABLE to do so - when the "small boats" issue becomes an increasingly large number of increasingly large boats, do we literally just view it as warfare and gun them down, or what?

These questions apply regardless of how you feel about immigration currently. If you are a hardline Brexiteer or otherwise strongly for controlling and reducing immigration, can you see a point in the future where it will no longer be tenable, either morally or practically, to maintain that position? And if you are liberal on immigration, can you see a point where having to be even more liberal will mean letting go altogether of many aspects of the UK's (and other countries') "identity"?

Interested in a range of perspectives - I think there's a whole bunch of sacred cows that may end up slaughtered by this. However if you believe that climate change either isn't happening or isn't due to human activity, please just jog on past and grow a brain cell or two. Life is too short.

An awful lot of people will die and the remainder will find asylum somewhere. We are likely to be struggling for food and water too, so attitudes will harden against letting more people in. Many more summers like this one and Southern Europe will be in real trouble, let alone Africa.

OneMoreBanana · 13/08/2026 15:29

Cheesestringsasatreat · 13/08/2026 12:26

When is all this going to happen?

Next Tuesday.

OP posts:
Dutch1e · 13/08/2026 15:28

AutumnHazel · 13/08/2026 15:26

Global temperatures are measured by satellite. You don’t need lots of weather stations… so I don’t believe you’re correct.

Yes, someone up thread said something similar.

Fair point.

AutumnHazel · 13/08/2026 15:26

Dutch1e · 13/08/2026 10:56

Europe is heating up faster than any other continent on the planet

I read this too and I'm not convinced. I think that Europe is the continent most likely to efficiently track data and to publish it promptly.

Personally I think the global picture is much more bleak, as demonstrated by the fact that the only region heating up faster than Europe is the Arctic.

Global temperatures are measured by satellite. You don’t need lots of weather stations… so I don’t believe you’re correct.

ilovesooty · 13/08/2026 15:24

smallglassbottle · 13/08/2026 11:28

We will face the choice between being over run with people or fighting for our survival as a country. This will inevitably mean closing our border and gunning down anyone trying to breach it. Will a government have the stomach to do such a thing? We will wait and see.

I sincerely hope I'm never part of a society where we countenance gunning people down in the sea.

AutumnHazel · 13/08/2026 15:17

OneMoreBanana · 13/08/2026 10:23

If whole areas of North Africa become uninhabitable you don't think it will increase population flows to southern Europe?

Most of North Africa is already almost uninhabitable (the Sahara)… I don’t see climate change as being a major driver for that region. Yes, it will be hotter by a couple of degrees in North African cities, but a 36c when it would otherwise be 34c isn’t enough to make people migrate!

OneMoreBanana · 13/08/2026 15:16

angelos02 · 13/08/2026 11:15

The bottom line is - there are too many people. 100 years ago, the global population was about 1 billion. It is now over 8 billion. All of those people need a home, water, food etc, just the basics, then add in the extras like cars, flights etc. The UK alone is cementing over green land to house people. The answer is staring us in the face. And no, I don't have children. Obviously.

The actual bottom line is that there's too much consumption, since that's what causes climate change. Reducing the number of people is one possible way to reduce consumption, although it may not be the most effective or most possible one, and would depend on which people you reduce.

OP posts:
tommyhoundmum · 13/08/2026 15:13

SadiraOfTyr · 13/08/2026 10:34

Greece and Turkey have hard borders which have reduced irregular migration to almost zero. Spain and Italy are going the same way. Denmark and Sweden have done the same.

You don't need to shoot people to impose hard borders - you just don't let them in, and the ones who do get in you immediately return to their starting point, country of origin, or a 3rd country.

The USSR shot people who were trying to leave, not get in.

But we are an island.

ChequerToRed · 13/08/2026 15:00

OneMoreBanana · 13/08/2026 10:07

I'm not sure how many people, on the ground or in government policy making, have connected the dots here.

The climate crisis disproportionately affects the global south, where average temperatures are hotter, infrastructure less developed and available economic resources for mitigation lower. This is already making life in some areas, that have previously supported human communities for thousands of years, near impossible. There is talk of whole cities having to be abandoned.

The same crisis is primarily created by the industrialised countries of the global north, whose per capita emissions far outweigh those of less industrialised countries.

So if/when the large scale exodus of millions of people from no-longer-habitable environments becomes inevitable, two questions arise: Is it MORAL to disallow those people asylum in countries like the UK? And is it PRACTICABLE to do so - when the "small boats" issue becomes an increasingly large number of increasingly large boats, do we literally just view it as warfare and gun them down, or what?

These questions apply regardless of how you feel about immigration currently. If you are a hardline Brexiteer or otherwise strongly for controlling and reducing immigration, can you see a point in the future where it will no longer be tenable, either morally or practically, to maintain that position? And if you are liberal on immigration, can you see a point where having to be even more liberal will mean letting go altogether of many aspects of the UK's (and other countries') "identity"?

Interested in a range of perspectives - I think there's a whole bunch of sacred cows that may end up slaughtered by this. However if you believe that climate change either isn't happening or isn't due to human activity, please just jog on past and grow a brain cell or two. Life is too short.

This ignores a now rather obvious fact, that one of the areas experiencing major issues with global heating is…Europe. The grass here will not be greener, it’s a patched and brittle yellow. Harvests are being severely affected as is water supply, and there are increasing numbers of major wildfires.
We won’t be in a position to take in more people.

Glitchymn1 · 13/08/2026 14:59

SusanJJ · 13/08/2026 10:11

TBH I think we are all stuffed and there won't be enough resources to share whoever lives where.

^ Eventually this.

Awkwardisfunny · 13/08/2026 14:58

OneMoreBanana · 13/08/2026 10:07

I'm not sure how many people, on the ground or in government policy making, have connected the dots here.

The climate crisis disproportionately affects the global south, where average temperatures are hotter, infrastructure less developed and available economic resources for mitigation lower. This is already making life in some areas, that have previously supported human communities for thousands of years, near impossible. There is talk of whole cities having to be abandoned.

The same crisis is primarily created by the industrialised countries of the global north, whose per capita emissions far outweigh those of less industrialised countries.

So if/when the large scale exodus of millions of people from no-longer-habitable environments becomes inevitable, two questions arise: Is it MORAL to disallow those people asylum in countries like the UK? And is it PRACTICABLE to do so - when the "small boats" issue becomes an increasingly large number of increasingly large boats, do we literally just view it as warfare and gun them down, or what?

These questions apply regardless of how you feel about immigration currently. If you are a hardline Brexiteer or otherwise strongly for controlling and reducing immigration, can you see a point in the future where it will no longer be tenable, either morally or practically, to maintain that position? And if you are liberal on immigration, can you see a point where having to be even more liberal will mean letting go altogether of many aspects of the UK's (and other countries') "identity"?

Interested in a range of perspectives - I think there's a whole bunch of sacred cows that may end up slaughtered by this. However if you believe that climate change either isn't happening or isn't due to human activity, please just jog on past and grow a brain cell or two. Life is too short.

As usual: it's the mega rich who need to resolve this. Remember when that billionaire was going to offer his private island for asylum seekers. Did that happen in the end? I didn't keep up. Maybe all the wealthy hoarding resources need to be forced to give them up. No one should ever own an entire bloody island anyway. If you can't be easily monitored by police (e.g. if accused / investigated) then you're too isolated - never mind the impact on us of removing vast quantities of land from circulation.

They need to start planning ahead now. Whatever the solution is: they need to implement it now. But we're still shutting down schools on hot days instead of installing suitable aircon systems, so.. yeah, not gonna happen, is it.

catspyjamas1 · 13/08/2026 14:49

floppybit · 13/08/2026 10:37

Europe is heating up faster than any other continent on the planet, and we are not acclimatised or set up to deal with it. Emptying millions of Africans into Europe is not the answer, neither is going backwards to live like cavemen. The problem is poverty. They can cope with extreme temperatures in the Middle East because they are wealthy. I hope we can make great progress in nuclear technology and reach a point where countries globally are able to have affordable modular nuclear power plants and abundant energy.

Sensible.

Digerydont · 13/08/2026 14:44

Another problem, the skilled migrants want to bring their extended families with them. So that negates any tax advantages of having them.

anotherside · 13/08/2026 14:12

I don’t think so. The moral case hasn’t stopped mass consumption among the people of the richest countries. So why would it influence policy of the governments of said countries? And, no, I’d suggest it wouldn’t have a moral duty anyway, as a government’s primary and overwhelming moral duty is to its own citizens.

FusionChefGeoff · 13/08/2026 14:02

EvangelicalAboutButteredToast · 13/08/2026 10:34

There are multiple catastrophes happening simultaneously. We are technologically on the precipice of mass unemployment whilst in a timeframe of active climate change and resource scarcity. The people at the top are anticipating a lot of death of the people at the bottom and are hoping that will help with the resource burden. That’s why they are doing absolutely nothing about migration and not too much about the climate, as the hope is one will cancel out the other. I fully expect another man-made pandemic will be unleashed and that will wipe out the vulnerable as they are too expensive to care for and will help with the Eugenics problem.

This is terrifying and yet logical / understandable at the same time.

Well chaps looks like climate change is really going to hit the poor in Africa and India hard
Ah well, fewer mouths to feed, can’t be helped

FullOfLemons · 13/08/2026 13:50

Dutch1e · 13/08/2026 10:56

Europe is heating up faster than any other continent on the planet

I read this too and I'm not convinced. I think that Europe is the continent most likely to efficiently track data and to publish it promptly.

Personally I think the global picture is much more bleak, as demonstrated by the fact that the only region heating up faster than Europe is the Arctic.

The ECMWF / Copernicus collect data for the whole planet, not just Europe.

The complete data set can be downloaded from Google Earth … so anybody is free to check.

Sometimes I just think what has the EU ever done for us ?

Whynottryagain · 13/08/2026 13:50

Dappy777 · 13/08/2026 13:33

You imply that we are responsible for climate change and are therefore duty-bound to have our society and identity ruined.

China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases. While we are consumed by masochism and hand-wringing and self-loathing, they are building coal-fired power plants. In fact, India alone emits more than the whole of Europe. Even Indonesia emits more than the UK.

Neither are we responsible for overpopulation. Africa has the highest birth rate in the world, and the African population is going to double. That's not my fault. That's their responsibility. I would have far more sympathy with Africans if they had fewer children. In parts of Africa, women still have five or six kids on average!

As for my identity, that is long gone anyway. Immigration has destroyed any sense of living in a nation with a shared culture and shared history. I have had a new, multicultural identity IMPOSED on me by smug, bullying liberal fascists.

Blaming China is sooo simplistic. They aren't that high if you factor in for population size, and that they're making Temu tat that the UK buys. And deflects responsibility that we ourselves have.

This is a really interesting article about global emissions -

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-metrics

OP - personally I think hard borders followed by war is the most likely outcome, unfortunately. Personally I support forms of rationing.

Per capita, national, historical: how do countries compare on CO2 metrics?

There are many ways to measure countries’ contributions to climate change. What do they tell us?

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-metrics

Dappy777 · 13/08/2026 13:33

You imply that we are responsible for climate change and are therefore duty-bound to have our society and identity ruined.

China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases. While we are consumed by masochism and hand-wringing and self-loathing, they are building coal-fired power plants. In fact, India alone emits more than the whole of Europe. Even Indonesia emits more than the UK.

Neither are we responsible for overpopulation. Africa has the highest birth rate in the world, and the African population is going to double. That's not my fault. That's their responsibility. I would have far more sympathy with Africans if they had fewer children. In parts of Africa, women still have five or six kids on average!

As for my identity, that is long gone anyway. Immigration has destroyed any sense of living in a nation with a shared culture and shared history. I have had a new, multicultural identity IMPOSED on me by smug, bullying liberal fascists.

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