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Original poster

AIBU to think Andy Burnham might call a general election soon?

664 replies

Mywishistoclimbthe3peaks · 20/07/2026 00:56

To think Andy Burnham will call a general election before Christmas? Yes it would be a massive roll of the dice but,

Reform - don't have the numbers for a GE and there's all frog faces suspicious money bringing him a lot of heat.

Torys - kemi doesn't have a lot of depth, I feel and she hasn't changed much in the polls. She's good at the dispatch box but let's face it anyone could stand up and insult the other side.

By calling a GE Andy would have his own mandate and break the deadlock of the back benchers.

Not being unreasonable = he needs to call a GE

Your being unreasonable = Robotic Kier and Ratchet Reeves have gone and Andy just needs to get on with it now.

OP posts:
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CagneyLacey · 20/07/2026 16:06

EasternStandard · 20/07/2026 16:05

Oh wow. I mean ik it was coming but still to see it in writing.

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To every young woman and girl let my time in office show there should be no ceilings on your ambitions, your hopes or your dreams.

JFC, does this person have one ounce of self-awareness???

LuckyHazelFox · 20/07/2026 16:06

CagneyLacey · 20/07/2026 16:05

Sorry….

I’m just a little cheerier today….

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No you carry on !

LuckyHazelFox · 20/07/2026 16:06

EasternStandard · 20/07/2026 16:05

Oh wow. I mean ik it was coming but still to see it in writing.

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She's expressed no interest in further roles.

CagneyLacey · 20/07/2026 16:05

LuckyHazelFox · 20/07/2026 16:01

Will you stop it 😆 🤣

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Sorry….

I’m just a little cheerier today….

EasternStandard · 20/07/2026 16:05

LuckyHazelFox · 20/07/2026 16:02

Reeves has gone.

Oh wow. I mean ik it was coming but still to see it in writing.

EasternStandard · 20/07/2026 16:03

BrownBookshelf · 20/07/2026 15:54

If one broadens out 'setting the scene' beyond any actual meaning of setting the scene then sure, yes. However, words have meanings and you don't get to move the goalposts.

It's evident that what you actually meant was Labour were doing the same thing in opposition as various Tories are now. That's true, but it doesn't mean they set the scene. Opposition calling for GEs and social media mushrooming both existed long before Labour last administration. As well as the issue you have with definition, you also ignore the massive, Musk shaped influence on the social media landscape.

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Context shouldn’t make it this difficult for you. I didn’t think it was that hard to get given I cited mn and btl media which are clearly not the Labour party.

And you’re missing the huge amounts of criticism aimed at the last gov including on here. You’re getting similar now and don’t like it. But thought it ok then. Reap what you sow etc

5128gap · 20/07/2026 16:02

BrownBookshelf · 20/07/2026 15:56

Also my guess. The difficulty Reform have is there's as yet no evidence of widespread tactical voting in their part of the right. That's not to say it couldn't start happening in the next 3 years, but equally there's no guarantee they'd be the ones who'd benefit if it did.

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This is true. Other than by their supporters, Reform are loathed and seen as the worst possible option. Not just around their policies, but also because they're inexperienced, incompetent and a bunch of wrong uns. I think tactical voting will only be used to harm not benefit Reform.

LuckyHazelFox · 20/07/2026 16:02

Reeves has gone.

LuckyHazelFox · 20/07/2026 16:01

CagneyLacey · 20/07/2026 16:00

Does he know where he’s gone? He has a habit of losing people, after all.

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Will you stop it 😆 🤣

CagneyLacey · 20/07/2026 16:00

LuckyHazelFox · 20/07/2026 15:56

No surprise Lammy's gone.

Does he know where he’s gone? He has a habit of losing people, after all.

CagneyLacey · 20/07/2026 15:59

5128gap · 20/07/2026 15:50

No, I think Reform peaked and its all down from now. They've convinced everyone they are likely to already and its not enough. If the public aren't satisfied with Burnham it'll be the Tories again.

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You say that, and you may well be right.

You can over intellectualise politics however, and Reform’s core voters could prove sticky. If a significant number are willing to hold their noses, what does that say about the level of Labours (un)popularity?

That would prove pretty telling.

BrownBookshelf · 20/07/2026 15:56

5128gap · 20/07/2026 15:50

No, I think Reform peaked and its all down from now. They've convinced everyone they are likely to already and its not enough. If the public aren't satisfied with Burnham it'll be the Tories again.

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Also my guess. The difficulty Reform have is there's as yet no evidence of widespread tactical voting in their part of the right. That's not to say it couldn't start happening in the next 3 years, but equally there's no guarantee they'd be the ones who'd benefit if it did.

LuckyHazelFox · 20/07/2026 15:56

No surprise Lammy's gone.

RodneyKitten · 20/07/2026 15:55

luckylavender · 20/07/2026 15:38

These two things have nothing to do with each other.

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They most definitely do, you just need some lateral thinking to see it.

BrownBookshelf · 20/07/2026 15:54

EasternStandard · 20/07/2026 15:47

Yes it can and does. You just focussed on Labour comms and argued that for some time. Broaden it out to the areas I mentioned and it’s easy see Labour supporters were happy to use social media to its full extent. But now don’t like it back at them.

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If one broadens out 'setting the scene' beyond any actual meaning of setting the scene then sure, yes. However, words have meanings and you don't get to move the goalposts.

It's evident that what you actually meant was Labour were doing the same thing in opposition as various Tories are now. That's true, but it doesn't mean they set the scene. Opposition calling for GEs and social media mushrooming both existed long before Labour last administration. As well as the issue you have with definition, you also ignore the massive, Musk shaped influence on the social media landscape.

LuckyHazelFox · 20/07/2026 15:54

5128gap · 20/07/2026 15:50

No, I think Reform peaked and its all down from now. They've convinced everyone they are likely to already and its not enough. If the public aren't satisfied with Burnham it'll be the Tories again.

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With any luck.

5128gap · 20/07/2026 15:50

BermudaRhombus · 20/07/2026 15:45

I’m not sure that will be the case after a couple of years under Andy Burnham. Reform will be strengthened and emboldened. The public will be much more focused on ensuring Burnham is removed.

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No, I think Reform peaked and its all down from now. They've convinced everyone they are likely to already and its not enough. If the public aren't satisfied with Burnham it'll be the Tories again.

EasternStandard · 20/07/2026 15:47

BrownBookshelf · 20/07/2026 15:38

The things you describe don't and can't mean them setting the scene, so obviously they wouldn't be read that way.

There's a distinction between an organisation/group of people having done a particular thing at some point and this behaviour having been sufficiently new and influential to constitute them scene setting. Especially in a social media landscape so influenced by someone like Musk who clearly isn't a Labour supporter.

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Yes it can and does. You just focussed on Labour comms and argued that for some time. Broaden it out to the areas I mentioned and it’s easy see Labour supporters were happy to use social media to its full extent. But now don’t like it back at them.

5128gap · 20/07/2026 15:46

BrownBookshelf · 20/07/2026 15:41

Personally I wonder whether he'll still be in place by then, even on the assumption he gets back into Parliament. There's still going to be the investigation and he's evidently realised his teflon days are over. My guess is the right wing voices in the establishment like the Murdoch press will have moved more towards the Tories again by that point.

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I agree. The question then is will the erstwhile Reform voters who saw Farage as a man of the people who listens to them think Burnham or Badenoch listens to them best.

BrownBookshelf · 20/07/2026 15:46

5128gap · 20/07/2026 15:43

Yes, the polls just extrapolate the actual number of seats likely from the voter intention surveys, voting history and demographics of locations. Not an exact science but a reasonable guide.

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Well, I wonder to what extent it's even a reasonable guide now. Which isn't to blame the pollsters either- a genuine multi party system, FPTP and a substantial tactical voting bloc must be an absolute fucker to call!

BermudaRhombus · 20/07/2026 15:45

BIossomtoes · 20/07/2026 15:38

I think anti Reform tactical voting will be on steroids at the next GE if - and it is an if - Reform still exists. Farage is betting the house on the forthcoming by-election, Reform is utterly screwed if the gamble doesn’t pay off.

I’m not sure that will be the case after a couple of years under Andy Burnham. Reform will be strengthened and emboldened. The public will be much more focused on ensuring Burnham is removed.

BIossomtoes · 20/07/2026 15:44

BrownBookshelf · 20/07/2026 15:41

Personally I wonder whether he'll still be in place by then, even on the assumption he gets back into Parliament. There's still going to be the investigation and he's evidently realised his teflon days are over. My guess is the right wing voices in the establishment like the Murdoch press will have moved more towards the Tories again by that point.

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That’s a very good point. The Times group has really got its teeth into Farage and Reform generally now and I can’t see it giving up. It feels as if there’s plenty more muck to rake.

5128gap · 20/07/2026 15:43

BrownBookshelf · 20/07/2026 15:35

Yeah I get that I just wondered is there even polling about them getting the highest number of seats? All I'd seen was stuff extrapolating from intended vote size, but with there being an obvious anti-Reform tactical voting bloc that may overestimate the number of seats they could win.

Agree that a hypothetical left coalition is probably going to piss anti-left people off more than a solo Labour government, albeit maybe the Lib Dems would have some impact.

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Yes, the polls just extrapolate the actual number of seats likely from the voter intention surveys, voting history and demographics of locations. Not an exact science but a reasonable guide.

BrownBookshelf · 20/07/2026 15:41

BIossomtoes · 20/07/2026 15:38

I think anti Reform tactical voting will be on steroids at the next GE if - and it is an if - Reform still exists. Farage is betting the house on the forthcoming by-election, Reform is utterly screwed if the gamble doesn’t pay off.

Personally I wonder whether he'll still be in place by then, even on the assumption he gets back into Parliament. There's still going to be the investigation and he's evidently realised his teflon days are over. My guess is the right wing voices in the establishment like the Murdoch press will have moved more towards the Tories again by that point.

BIossomtoes · 20/07/2026 15:38

I think anti Reform tactical voting will be on steroids at the next GE if - and it is an if - Reform still exists. Farage is betting the house on the forthcoming by-election, Reform is utterly screwed if the gamble doesn’t pay off.