AI over the next few years

The model would have to completely change. The companies that hold all the value would have to pay taxes to support the countries in which they operate. The current model of offshoring would have to be stopped.

in a way, it’s only right- if these companies are going to take our earning power and put us out of work in the Pursuit of profits they should pay.

obviously there is a lot of idealism in here, but universal income is idealistic, not realistic

Do you really envision governments being able to stop it? If 10 people's jobs can be done with 3 people and AI how does the government force a company to keep paying them all? How does a government fund the resultant mass unemployment?

More generously, if AI reduces your working week to 20 hours, can you pay your mortgage and bills on half your current salary? Or do you imagine companies will be happy to keep paying you the same?

Where’s the money coming from? ai can be based anywhere in the world. So they can’t tax it

how on earth will universal income be paid for?
some people won’t accept it either, they get pissed off when free school meals were extended or cheaper admittance to zoos.
plus, idle hands cause problems. Bored people with access to little money. It won’t end well. People need to feel needed, valued and like they’ve achieved something.

the only thing that will happen is the rich tech companies getting cheaper and the rest of us scrabbling around.

Someone has to write the AI programme that writes other programmes it does not do it by some miracle process.

Yes, but I can remember it feeling like this when computers first appeared in workplaces in the 80's. And we adapted to that quickly.

I think you're being naive - willfully or not - about the most immediate impact of AI. The seismic shift in the fabric of industry and society is likely accurate, at least in the short term, but it won't be a seamless or steady transition. There will be huge casualties in terms of livelihood for a large portion of the population, and the current social infrastructure cannot cope with it. There are really no AI-safe jobs, some may just hold on a little longer than others. It's coming for everyone.

Your AI-based utopia is a looooong way off, and there will be huge trouble in the meantime. That's if we even get there and the benefits aren't sequestered by the already-existing tech leaders.

This is interesting
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1CAvNn5tUR8&ra=m

I was actually trying to link the FT article from yesterday but the paywall bot won’t let me! Same view. Don’t panic.

"Keen on longevity and wellness" !! To what end? Ermm, no thank you. We are keeping too many people alive due to advances in medicine but no quality of life.
Wellness part, yes please.

AI writes programmes. That’s one of the primary things it’s supposed to do. In time apparently, it’ll do it all itself, end to end

What I find confusing about the AI situation is that I work in tech and so many of the claims made don't match my reality one bit, which makes me wonder - am I missing something, are people bamboozled or are they deliberately lying?

The reality is that even after years and years of tech development it is still incredibly hard to make quite simple software, not because of the tech but because the process of designing something that humans use is very very hard and not many people are good at it. AI is utterly shit at it.

As for robots doing everything, humanoid robots are expensive, high-maintenance and dangerous - if they fall over on someone, or malfunction they can cause huge damage and create high liability costs. A fixed 'robot' that does one task - bolting pieces on a car, for example - is worth having because it's quite safe and robust, but the cost/benefit ratio worsens very fast when a robot is able to move freely - one obstacle can send it flying and result in thousands worth of damage. It is extremely hard to replace the multi-functional nature of humans - they are so adaptable (as well as being stubborn and having a tendency towards flakiness) that when you add everything up it is hard to find a sweet spot where the fragility and rigidity of robots justifies their cost.

For the road to be full of driverless cars, so much has to change that I can't see it happening in the next twenty years. The tech is mediocre at best, but the real issue is the weirdness of driving. Once you break a simple car journey down into the number of judgements and decisions needed, it is truly incredible that humans manage it at all. Trying to create a system that can cope with that and with the general chaos of road systems is so hard that again the cost/benefit ratio starts to look pretty bad pretty fast.

Also, I can't help wondering if men's fundamental inadequacy - their inability to produce life - is fuelling all this nonsense, such that what they are chasing can never be fully realised. They will never be women. What an existential horror that must be.

Ai is being absolutely shunned by a lot of teens now with refusals to use it due to its awful environmental impact and catastrophic effect on the arts.

I’ve already known multiple people in differing fields lose jobs to it.
it’s a scary future that’s for sure.

That’s not really an impact of AI though, I’m not sure AI increases that threat?

And this is the thing. People are comparing it to computers, but the computers still needed operatives. AI doesn’t.

It still needs programmers to write the programmes.

But AI isn’t and won’t be “free”.

Except you still need the typing and language skills to use the word processor. AI will be doing it on its on. There won’t be a “you” any more.

And this is the thing. People are comparing it to computers, but the computers still needed operatives. AI doesn’t.

As for the people saying that’ll be great, they’ll get to reduce their hours. Absolutely, and reduce your money as well. Or do people think they’ll still be earning the same money? They won’t. Why would an employer pay you for less hours when AI can do your job for free.

And if you are replaced by AI and/or a robot what do you do then ?

Exactly and more/other goods will also be built by robots but at what point will humans not be needed?

Perhaps a first step within the next five years could be the working week being shortened for those that want it, if my performance was as strong on 3 days instead of 5 and was paid accordingly I would immediately make the switch and I am sure others would too.

I've bolded the problematic bit. They won't pay you for your performance, they'll pay you for your time. So 3 days' wages instead of 5.

Why wouldn't they? It saves them money and the work still gets done.

They are already automated. Robots build cars

That’s really interesting. I’m in-house though, in a large company, we already have reporting tools that have automated all of this.

it’s more accessible though

Wasn’t there an experiment where researchers deliberately gave an AI system information that suggested it was about to be replaced by another system. Entirely on its own initiative, it started to formulate ways not to be deactivated.