To think most serious incidents are preceded by warning signs?

That’s still really broad - you’ve mentioned four different things. The consensus so far seems to be that some, but not all, serious incidents are preceded by warning signs. May I ask why you’ve started this thread? Are you doing some academic research or something?

Sometimes the warning signs are there but actually intervening/doing something at the stage where some will see them and some won't is another matter.

WW2? Yes, everyone should have been able to see where Germany was heading, but there was an understandable desperation to avoid another conflict after the horrors of WWI.

Personal example? I ignored the signs of developing sepsis with a temp of over 40 and my kidneys packing up because it was the weekend and I'm a full time carer for DH. If a medical friend hadn't questioned me closely via Whatsapp about the symptoms and insisted I called an ambulance that minute or they would, I'd be dead.

Hindsight is 20/20. We are human and screw up, accidentally, at times.

Well with conflicts there's obviously a reason and it'll have been building up to that level. With accidents, genuine ones, there is probably not really much warning.

Things like mechanical failures in theme parks, on ships, planes etc will also always have reasons behind them. Something has gone wrong at least once in a process that's supposed to be very robust.

As for people dying...well my dad had a heart attack and claimed he was fine, was in hospital for a few days and came home. Two months later he had a fatal one. I should've seen the first one as a warning sign but it wasn't like I could've somehow stopped him dying. But I guess I shouldn't have been so shocked. But I was only a child.

So yeah. Usually there are sequences of events that lead up to something major happening. But it doesn't mean you'd be able to stop it. At least you hopefully learn from what went wrong for next time.

Can you give an example? This is quite a broad topic!

I think there are often warning signs prior to a disaster. There is the swiss cheese model, when all possible problems align on one occasion, when prior to that one occasion the problems have all occurred but not all at the same time.

What do you mean by this? I think it’s sometimes true, but not always! For instances, sometimes people are diagnosed with - or die of - serious illnesses or conditions that they develop with no warning signs.

I think some people don’t listen to their gut instincts, they doubt themselves.

I have put YABU
re the taught to down play stuff.

But toally agree with you re early warning signs.
I cant understand why people ignore them.

A bit like people not doing exercises when they are prescribed by a physio.

Sounds like hindsight bias.

Maybe in some instances there is ‘don’t make a fuss/rock the boat’ mindset hoping it’s wrong or goes away as it’s too much of an uncomfortable truth or effort to address