What's going to happen to the north of England and Welsh voters who got royally fucked by Brexit and have now voted Reform?

there was a duty to prevent crossings

There wasn't a duty to prevent crossings connected to EU membership - our arrangements on border control with France are bilateral.

There was a peak in 2015/2016 - but then a similar increase in asylum applications in the EU after Covid (graph in the link);

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20240325-1

A major difference between 2015/2016 and now is that EU countries who were previously welcoming to asylum seekers, such as Germany, have taken a much harder line.

But what can Reform do about the ultimate causes of those issues - most prominently an aging population, with the accompanying massive increase in adult social care costs. Councils are being financially crippled by their statutory obligations.

A Reform controlled council can't fix demographic issues and can't change the council's legal duties.

It's the same here in the leafy south east stock-broker belt, probably worse.
There's one road that looks only fit for a tractor.

Plaid Cymru is in in Wales but those that did bot Reform did so because under quarter of a century of Labour control the roads are awful, the hospitals are awful, the schools are back to 1980’s levels of awful and local councils cannot care for the elderly properly. There are no decent jobs and everyone feels poor. Meanwhile Labour have been throwing money at Cardiff Airport which is handy for only people in actual Cardiff and neglecting everyone else above the M4.

This plus the media and prior govenrment have been telling them for over a decade that the source of all their problems is immigrants, and not the wealthy elite who have the power in the country. It's not really a surprise that some have bought this given the history of racial discrimination in the country.

I imagine (as a non white person) individuals in this group are fairly unpleasant but I do understand how we have got to this situation.

Nail on the head.

Let's not forget it's exactly how Boris Johnson became so popular in the "Red Wall" seats - because he promised "levelling up" etc., so basically telling the electorate in the run down (often Northern) areas that there'd be improvements to their lives, i.e. more jobs, more funding for public services, etc. Obviously, not of that happened, but it was exactly what appealed to Northern (and other run down regions) voters.

The anti-imigration/racism is a bit of a red herring really. If people in the deprived areas could get decent jobs, if they could get affordable housing, if they could get decent public services, they'd be "happy" and not be clinging on to a vain hope that a dodgy politician like Farage could be their answer.

As you so rightly say, if the Tories/Labour actually improved the run down/deprived regions, Farage and Reform would disappear virtually overnight.

It was yourself that intimated that Reform won’t listen to people’s concerns. I presumed you were talking about the leadership, hence the posh London bit. If you weren’t talking about the leadership, who were you talking about? Local councillors? You’re the one making sweeping generalisations about Reform and America. What’s that got to do with local elections?
I find your posts utterly patronising to the people who have voted for Reform in their thousands this week. You’re just chucking anything you’ve got at them because you think you’re better than them.

I’m in the NE and reform has just taken over. I didn’t vote for them but they can’t do any worse than the labour council who did fuck all all these years except let pot holes grow and grow. I’m happy they are out even if it is Reform

Having had a Reform council and a Reform mayor - not much, even less than they do out of power. Many of the problems my area had well before UKIP was an idea to Farage are still there, down to derelict buildings no council can decide what to do with other than spending money on coming up with another idea and kicking that can down the road.

UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform Party Ltd. have done well in my area by originally being very, very visible. They arrange and dress up for St George's Day and other local events, they organised bulky collection and extra waste collections, part of the park clean-up crew, part of organising the flower displays and so on.

Since being in power, the only thing I've seen them continue is the St George's Day stuff, but they're still more well known than anyone from any other party. They literally campaign on the concept of only voting for people you already know. They're great for a photo op to get their names out there more and very little else. Little else changes beyond businesses coming and going. Certainly not enough of a difference to 'teach' those who vote for them anything.

I'm hoping this too. My area has a new Reform council, as of yesterday. My sister's area has had one for a year - it's a 'very not funny' joke.

Not entirely true. Councils can choose whether or not to accept people to their area and provide them with housing and other support services.

Some councils have enthusiastically embraced taking in various different demographics of people to be settled in their areas, such as lots of run down seaside resort councils encouraged newly released prisoners to relocate to their towns to occupy the run down empty MHOs converted from old guest houses. They apparently get government funding to do so.

I believe a council close to where I live have made the decision not to accept asylum seekers into their council area, i.e. turned down the financial package "encouraging" them to take in x number of asylum seekers.

So, to an extent, councils DO have discretion, but lots will accept whatever demographics they're encouraged to take for the financial support they'd receive.

Voted for Brexit. Ten years later voted for Reform.

They'll keep chasing that unicorn until they get what they really want, not having to encounter any brown, black or foreign people in their daily lives, it's that simple.

I waa surprised by the size of the reform voter in Wales. Im not Welsh so do follow thier politics much but I see plaid is left leaning?

So it guess anyone right leaning didnt have much option as the conservatives did such a bad job for 14 years and that whole 'boris wave" has been pinned on them. So if you are centre right leaning and not pro mass immigration I guess there isnt seen to be a choice.

The centre right really needs to sort itself out.

That's quite a patronising and sweeping assumption to make on non-reform councillors! No, they're not all posh idiots from London. My areas dodged the Reform bullet and there are very decent very local people across all non-Reform parties.

On the ordinary working class prospects - yes, they're bad, and they've got worse. Working class. Middle class too. It's tougher all round. But anyone who turns to Reform's false hope should remember that they're in the pocket of tech bros and that they favour deregulation. Nothing will improve. We'll just be a poor US vassal state (and this time, the term vassal will truly apply). I wish I could say 'it's your funeral' but we're all going to be dragged down with it.

@StandFirmthe hundreds of people who stood to be local councillors this week are not looking down on their electorate. They are people from
the electorate, they live amongst them, not in some posh place in London.

they’re sick of people looking down on them and not listening to their problems and concerns - Thing is Reform don't either. They're just much better at giving the illusion that they do.

Because no one in the south voted Reform?

The issue is how to put pride back into northern communities where factories, mining, etc etc have all but disappeared leaving the ordinary working class with few genuine prospects for a half decent life. Further, the minimum wage worker is demonised as stupid, and a drain on society for claiming benefits. Tackle that, and the fact that Reform are able to win on what is little more than racist propaganda will disappear overnight.

To add to my previous post - can't believe I forgot the local paedophile gang that was caught a few years back.

I've said I didn't vote for Reform.

I'm just trying to explain what it's like in an area where there is anti-migration sentiment and why that might be.

Ignoring people's reasoning and viewpoints doesn't make the problem go away.

The things people presumably would expect if all the migrants hadn't been allowed in:

[PLEASE NOTE I AM NOT NECESSARILY AGREEING WITH THESE OR ARGUING THE CASE. JUST TRYING TO EXPLAIN THE VIEWPOINT]

More housing availability/cheaper prices due to less competition, due to fewer people.

More jobs at the lower end, due to less people (yes I know fewer people actually means fewer jobs too, although not sure it's one job loss to one person loss).

More cohesive society rather than separate groups, including those who cover their faces which is a big separator.

Schools where your child is not the odd one out ethnic minority, unless you are the one who has chosen to move countries (yes I know many schools would be closed).

Easier availability of GP appointments etc due to reduced population (yes, far fewer NHS staff too, although we should be training out own not poaching them from other countries who have paid to train them!)

Specific local one, I admit this isn't really fair as they are outliers! - end to the extreme noise nuisance, broken furniture dumped/smashed up in the service lanes, peace and an end to the midnight screeching and brawling in the streets. Mind you, this group do sterling work for community cohesion, as everyone else of all races and creeds jointly hates them!

These are just off the top of my head. Re. the fancy car - I mentioned that because there is so often a tendency amongst lefty circles (which I generally count myself in) to view migrants as sort of powerless, at the bottom of society. Therefore being against migration is always, in their view, punching down and therefore a no-no. I was just pointing out that this isn't the case, and if you are poor/disadvantaged and the people in your local area flashing the cash and in positions of power are migrants, it is more likely to create resentment than support for them. Which weirdly the lefty people would normally understand - the poor/disadvantaged punching up to the well-off/privileged.

Great.

The point is, people have different views on migration depending on what they have experienced. If all you've experienced is wonderful surgeons, or your own experience of moving to a new country and wanting to integrate, it's a totally different experience to the local people living here, as I have described.

I grew up in leafy middle class area with a fair number of migrants/second and third generation of migrants. I was practically "colour blind" to race as a result. But it was totally different to where I live now, the sheer number of migrants, the lack of integration, the number of face coverings, the need for interpreters as so many are so recently arrived, the antisocial behaviour of one particular group, the slum landlords of the area all being migrants or children of migrants... plus in tbe context of wider issues such as difficulty obtaining housing or employment.

I actually think we should have an intentional prgramme to settle migrants in the communities who vote with a pro-migration stance. Or at least something where they are spread out more evenly. I challenge anyone to live next door to the particularly antisocial group round here without longing to deport them! Even if we disregard those outliers, it makes sense for integration to have everyone spread out a bit more.

The outcome likely depends on how much time elapses between now and the next round of elections. If they happen quickly, you’re right, but if there is long enough for people to see the outcomes of the change voted in this time, they may vote differently in the next round.

Plaid are the party with the most seats in the Senedd, not Reform.

Our local town centre has been regenerated due to the foresight (and admittedly spending £££) of the previous council. I'm worried what Reform are going to do to it now. Maybe they will just reap the benefits and claim it as their own doing?