AIBU to feel frightened about the risk of AMOC collapse?

It would, but there isn't agreement that that would happen!

but also I just think it's a strange thing about human nature how much we stick our heads in the sand.

Do you? It’s a normal part of human behaviour. It’s how we evolved. There are always more immediate problems to deal with, which makes the potential bad things happening tomorrow feel less important. If I can’t feed my children or protect them from wolves today, who cares of the sky falls in next year? Can you think of any animal that plans ahead to that extent? Why would you expect human animals to be different?

Like a pp I did a degree in Ecology and Environmental Science a long time ago. We’re fucked and we’ve about known it for a long time. Why haven’t we done anything about it? Because here and now we need to feed our children and protect them from wolves. Anything that’s happening at the global environmental level - good and bad - is really just background noise to that, at the species scale.

No sorry

But what do you want us to do about it?

Ok yes it might happen and we might all die and our families obliterated.

Now what???

Having just done some quick research:

There also appears to be huge disagreement in the scientific community over both the timescales of this happening and the effects of it happening.

Unlike global warming which is pretty much universally accepted as happening this seems to vary, I came across peer reviewed models suggesting 2063 and other models suggesting no major changes for over 1,000 years.

The outcomes if it does collapse also seem to vary from low end models suggesting >1 degree global temp change and 4-6 degrees in northern Europe which would cause issues for home grown crops but would not change society dramatically.

So I think this is a lot of guesswork still going on.

Apparently there was a prophecy a very lpng time ago that the world would end in 2012.

Unsure if it involved an asteroid.

But it was in all the news.

Even a movie called 2012 was made about the World ending.

My 12 year niece was so scared and truly believed the World was gon a end that year- had to work very hard to reassure her.

Look it up. Might still be info re this on the net.

My daughter also comes home worried about the world ending- usually the Geography teacher causing her to worry.

Sometimes the a different subject.

I might chance the southern hemisphere if it happens but no point worrying beyond that. Enjoy the sunshine.

Plus we can see what disruption to oil is doing rn, there may be fewer flights etc it’s not easy to do.

Every "will" in that is doing a lot of heavy lifting. There is no certainty about what would happen.

Its simple psychology.

What do you propose the average person does about this?
Nothing, the average person can do nothing.

What does worrying about this acheive?
Nothing, there is nothing worrying will acheive.

It feels like something so far out of our control and so far away from day to day life that it is not worth thinking about.

Inheritance however is something that people can relate to, they have likely received some, will receive some, plan to leave one etc.

It is a simple case that humans think about things they can relate to.

You should be more worried about the companies laying at the feet of ‘AI’, the likelihood of WW3 ( if that’s not already started) and the US and/or Israel firing off nukes than anything else at the moment OP.

That's not how weather systems work, certainly not one as vast as this.

The system warms the entire northern hemisphere, keeps ice sheets from advancing, pulls water with it meaning a collapse would result in North America getting a fairly rapid 0.5 metre increase in sea level over 50 years (the collapse takes a while, ot would be more like a shutdown over a few decades once it starts), the jet stream would be disrupted causing many issues, violent cold winters and storms would increase across North America. The entire northern hemisphere is impacted, substantially.

The biggest changes would be localised further north, and the biggest before and after difference will be in Europe that is true. But Europe will be worse than Canada is now, and the entire northern hemisphere will be screwed and worse in various ways.

Best post, perfectly expressed 👌🏻👌🏻

Things like this are too big for me to worry about, if that makes sense . It's like worrying about nuclear war or a giant asteroid: it would be the end of life, I can do nothing about it, it's not like worrying about my gas bill or job or kid's exam grades. It's too big to carry. I will continue trying to limit the harm I do, voting for people and parties who recognise the risks and want us all to limit the harm we do, etc, but day to day I don't worry about it much.

I think you’re unreasonable to be frightened because it’s not helpful for you or for the wider issue. Concerned, absolutely.

1. the prediction is that the shutdown would begin by 2050. The shutdown would then play out over the following 50-100 years. So, while we shouldn’t put our fingers in our ears over it, the likelihood of you experiencing the worst case scenario is small, though increasing impact for your children.
2. the Earth is ‘overdue’ the next glacial period (what most people consider an Ice Age), which occur on cycles governed by changes in the orbit of the Earth and our axis. It is likely that our interference, as a species, in natural systems has delayed this climate deterioration rather than accelerated it. Now, this doesn’t change the fact that it’s going to change everything that we know, but it does mean that there’s literally nothing we can do about it other than prepare. Which leads me to:
3. Preparing >8 billion people for the level of change a glacial period brings is far beyond anything our systems are capable of - it would/will require mass migration towards more hospitable climates but also there won’t be any way of growing enough food for everyone without major change. Humans are good at adapting to disasters, but it’s going to hurt and in quite unpredictable ways (who, what and when).

So, whilst I am concerned, I know there is no point in worrying about it now. In the same way that I’m concerned about World War III and about societal collapse due to AI. All I can do, and can encourage my children to do, is to live each day well - enjoy yourself but get a good education; make plans for the future but be prepared to be flexible.

which one

At least the polar bears will have somewhere to live

You're still catastrophising though. The odds may be high of it happening ~(although I'd question the source of your 50-70% odds), but it is far from agreed that even if it does happen,that it would lead to societal collapse!

Stop eating meat is a low effort, high impact change that people seem to bloody mindedly refuse to do.

Lots of people are discussing it, OP- I've read more than one article about it this week. I think the figures you've presented are a bit out there- not sure anyone serious is talking about 2050 and a lot of discussion is about weakening rather than collapse- but it's a well known risk and much discussed.

I think comparing it to people discussing family issues is a bit silly, I'm afraid. Even the staunchest environmentalist thinks about things other than the environment and even after massive climate change we'll all continue to do so. We'll be shivering together in some desolate hole desperately trying to stay alive and people will still be gossiping about their neighbours and grumbling about their MILs, because that's human nature and always has been.

I wonder why I bother to recycle etc when I see videos from the US. Driving any distance, using a/c and dryers all the time, using aluminium trays to cook in so they can throw them rather than wash them, using disposable tableware.

big science not the average joe will save it

I’m not worried about it. It will happen at some point but I’ll probably be dead by then 🤷🏻‍♀️