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AIBU?

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AIBU to feel frightened about the risk of AMOC collapse?

142 replies

rockinrobins · 24/04/2026 09:42

The likelihood of an apocalyptic ice age scenario happening in our lifetimes is now higher than not.

Is no one else scared about this for themselves and their children? Why aren't we talking about it?

If the AMOC collapses, we will be living in temperatures of -20 to -30 degrees Celsius within our lifetime. There is nothing we can do, but it's terrifying, and no one is discussing it.

From Google:

Recent studies suggest a high likelihood of an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse, with some projections estimating a 42%–76% chance of collapse before 2050 or 50%–70% within this century. A 2026 study predicts a 42%-58% slowdown by 2100, which is likely to end in collapse. This is no longer seen as a low-likelihood event.

Before you continue to Google Search

https://www.google.com/search?q=Atlantic+Meridional+Overturning+Circulation+%28AMOC%29&sca_esv=e42243e293ad428e&biw=1440&bih=664&sxsrf=ANbL-n6zRNwifxLgsWv9YpA8xTabmZk8iw%3A1777019432239&ei=KCrracOgDquvhbIPtoCbgQc&ved=2ahUKEwjStZbtioaUAxVNQ0EAHbY3M4kQgK4QegYIAQgAEAU&uact=5&oq=how+likely+is+amoc+collapse&gs_lp=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-w_CBwYwLjEuMjfIB3KACAE&sclient=gws-wiz-serp

OP posts:
ThereAreOnlyShadesOfGrey · 24/04/2026 18:31

likelysuspect · 24/04/2026 18:16

Given the OP believes (and I dont believe this) that this catastrophic apocalypse is going to occur in just 24 years time, what do you think you can achieve?

It’s a load of bollocks.

We should treat it in the same way we treat flat earthers and their ilk.

ThereAreOnlyShadesOfGrey · 24/04/2026 18:30

Funny how only a couple of years ago it was all about how we were going to be experiencing extreme heatwaves and would be dying of over exposure, and in the blink of an eye we’re expecting an ice age?

Okayyyyy.

Me thinks some people spend far too much time on the internet, and banning social media should just become a worldwide concept, not just for under 16’s.

And really, if the world ends, so what? You’re going to die anyway, in the next 50/60 years you’ll be dead of old age assuming you don’t get hit by a bus, or an iceberg. ;)

Seriously get a grip, this level of hysteria is far to unhealthy and should be treated with the contempt it deserves.

NeverendingRabbitHole · 24/04/2026 18:26

Just as everyone's finished planting their gardens with heat and drought resistant plants 😄. The irony.

Mistymaglets · 24/04/2026 18:24

likelysuspect · 24/04/2026 18:10

You know people have catastrophised about the end of the world since they hadd a concept for what the world is.

But now that catastrophizing is backed up by Science.
The AMOC collapse and the resulting consequences are not a theory or a belief.
It is a demonstrable scientific fact that emissions are affecting the AMOC and that there is a time limit on slowing down or reversing the damage.

Melarus · 24/04/2026 18:21

YANBU, it's really frightening and I think about it a lot

nevernotmaybe · 24/04/2026 18:18

likelysuspect · 24/04/2026 15:33

Thats right. Im not bothered to be honest, some species will survive and others wont. Humans might not. There was a time, longer periods of time, that humans have not been on the earth, there will be again. We're just one of millions of species

An easier position to accept, if not bothering and caring wasn't the reason it is happening as it is anyway. The entire planet will be gone in billions of years, so we also shouldnt care about driving countless species to extinction or finishing the ones close off then surely?

And why care if entire populations of humans die off as climate wipes out viable places to live? Might as well continue what we are doing regardless. The list goes on for what is essentially the same as what you are saying.

likelysuspect · 24/04/2026 18:16

Runssometimes · 24/04/2026 18:10

You’re not unreasonable and all the people who are saying there’s nothing you can do are wrong.

we can vote for councillors and governments that take climate change seriously and actually have plans to do something about it. We can patronise companies and financial institutions that don’t support fossil fuel investment but do support renewables. We can consistently say we are worried about it and demand change by writing to MPs, on companies social media, protesting, signing petitions etc.

I for one am not prepared to just sit there and do nothing and if more people used their voices, votes and consumer power we might have a chance of this scenario not playing out. It’s precisely because people are passive we are in this mess. Consumers got CFCs banned and the ozone layer is repairing, if we unite behind things we collectively have a lot of power.

Given the OP believes (and I dont believe this) that this catastrophic apocalypse is going to occur in just 24 years time, what do you think you can achieve?

EasternStandard · 24/04/2026 18:12

rockinrobins · 24/04/2026 18:08

There's a 42%–76% chance of collapse before 2050.

You quote lower percentages for the end of the century, how does that work together

likelysuspect · 24/04/2026 18:10

You know people have catastrophised about the end of the world since they hadd a concept for what the world is.

Runssometimes · 24/04/2026 18:10

You’re not unreasonable and all the people who are saying there’s nothing you can do are wrong.

we can vote for councillors and governments that take climate change seriously and actually have plans to do something about it. We can patronise companies and financial institutions that don’t support fossil fuel investment but do support renewables. We can consistently say we are worried about it and demand change by writing to MPs, on companies social media, protesting, signing petitions etc.

I for one am not prepared to just sit there and do nothing and if more people used their voices, votes and consumer power we might have a chance of this scenario not playing out. It’s precisely because people are passive we are in this mess. Consumers got CFCs banned and the ozone layer is repairing, if we unite behind things we collectively have a lot of power.

rockinrobins · 24/04/2026 18:08

igelkott2026 · 24/04/2026 18:05

The articles I read said it would be 2100 so definitely not in my lifetime and my son would be in his 90s.

There's a 42%–76% chance of collapse before 2050.

OP posts:
igelkott2026 · 24/04/2026 18:05

rockinrobins · 24/04/2026 17:50

If that's what you think then you clearly haven't read up on this. The whole point is that this is pretty likely to happen in our lifetimes, and even more likely in our children's lifetimes.

The articles I read said it would be 2100 so definitely not in my lifetime and my son would be in his 90s.

igelkott2026 · 24/04/2026 18:04

turkeyboots · 24/04/2026 11:09

The world won't end, but the British Isles will get significantly colder. Look to northern Canada for an example, we're on a parallel with Labrador and Newfoundland. But also Norway and Sweden. Insulate your house and learn cross country skiing?

Yes, I think the main problem is that governments will stick their heads in the sand and not prepare.

But I will be long dead by 2100 when it's due to happen and I doubt my son will be still alive either. So nothing for me to worry about and I think my carbon footprint is lower than most already so I probably could do something to help the situation but I think those who fly private jets are the first priority (as well as old men stopping blowing things up that will need to rebuilt at environmental cost).

In fact if there really are fuel shortages in a few weeks, private jets should be grounded first.

southcoastsammy · 24/04/2026 17:54

OP,
you seem determined to worry about something you have no control
over, so go ahead and pick at that scab. Or perhaps do some thing proactive about it like research which land masses will be best placed for survival and find a way to get there now before the borders close.

likelysuspect · 24/04/2026 17:53

rockinrobins · 24/04/2026 17:50

If that's what you think then you clearly haven't read up on this. The whole point is that this is pretty likely to happen in our lifetimes, and even more likely in our children's lifetimes.

Theres no one consensus on anything, so no I dont accept or believe that.

rockinrobins · 24/04/2026 17:50

likelysuspect · 24/04/2026 17:26

Its not going to happen in the next generations, thesee sorts of changes happen over at least hundreds of years. Moreso thousands of years

The earth has been here for billions of years and will continue to be, but perhaps with different living creatures. Or no living creatures.

If that's what you think then you clearly haven't read up on this. The whole point is that this is pretty likely to happen in our lifetimes, and even more likely in our children's lifetimes.

OP posts:
likelysuspect · 24/04/2026 17:26

EasternStandard · 24/04/2026 15:45

Do you mean I’m the longer term or not fussed in the next generation or so?

I could probably agree more if I didn’t have dc.

Its not going to happen in the next generations, thesee sorts of changes happen over at least hundreds of years. Moreso thousands of years

The earth has been here for billions of years and will continue to be, but perhaps with different living creatures. Or no living creatures.

Foughties · 24/04/2026 16:47

I read about this in the Guardian and just sort of filed it for now. It did say that the worst case scenario modelling was now what was going to happen which was a huge shock to scientists, if I remember correctly. I just dont know what to say when my dc talk about having dc. Its thoroughly depressing.

EvangelicalAboutButteredToast · 24/04/2026 16:26

I also agree that if I had no kids I honestly wouldn’t give a shit.

EvangelicalAboutButteredToast · 24/04/2026 16:24

There are so many things to worry about at the moment, I can totally see why nobody had any headspace for this.

EasternStandard · 24/04/2026 15:45

likelysuspect · 24/04/2026 15:33

Thats right. Im not bothered to be honest, some species will survive and others wont. Humans might not. There was a time, longer periods of time, that humans have not been on the earth, there will be again. We're just one of millions of species

Do you mean I’m the longer term or not fussed in the next generation or so?

I could probably agree more if I didn’t have dc.

likelysuspect · 24/04/2026 15:33

Franjipanl8r · 24/04/2026 12:27

Humans are a parasite on the earth and we’re eating up and destroying our host (the planet). It’s fundamentally what we are as a species. We can reduce the impact we have on the earth and extend our time here, but we can’t fundamentally change what we have become as a species.

Just because people aren’t panicking, doesn’t mean they don’t understand or know what’s going on. Some of us have accepted our fate a long time ago.

Thats right. Im not bothered to be honest, some species will survive and others wont. Humans might not. There was a time, longer periods of time, that humans have not been on the earth, there will be again. We're just one of millions of species

HipsterHighStreet · 24/04/2026 15:27

TheLivelyAzureHedgehog · 24/04/2026 14:54

but also I just think it's a strange thing about human nature how much we stick our heads in the sand.

Do you? It’s a normal part of human behaviour. It’s how we evolved. There are always more immediate problems to deal with, which makes the potential bad things happening tomorrow feel less important. If I can’t feed my children or protect them from wolves today, who cares of the sky falls in next year? Can you think of any animal that plans ahead to that extent? Why would you expect human animals to be different?

Like a pp I did a degree in Ecology and Environmental Science a long time ago. We’re fucked and we’ve about known it for a long time. Why haven’t we done anything about it? Because here and now we need to feed our children and protect them from wolves. Anything that’s happening at the global environmental level - good and bad - is really just background noise to that, at the species scale.

I guess that’s also why some people panic at the threat of terrorism while eating poorly, smoking, not exercising etc etc.

BrickProblems · 24/04/2026 15:26

YANBU

Gagamama2 · 24/04/2026 15:21

HOW have I never heard of this??? Well that’s my afternoon lost down a research rabbit hole. I agree, it’s mind bending that this isn’t top on gov / media lists