To think I’ll be stuck at 16 stone forever

How do you accurately track your calories though if you are eating home cooked food? Or are you eating ready made meals? I found using Lean Cuisine helped me lose weight. The other things that really helped was eating two meals a day. Try buying a bunch of frozen meals and soups and just eating that tracking your calories that way and cut to 1200 a day. You will lose weight trust me. If you.dont on that you may have a thyroid issue.

That's not what set point theory says. Set point theory suggests that the body can adapt to a certain weight when maintained for a significant period of time and this leads to natural adaptation in appetite/calorie intake/energy expenditure to maintain that weight. This is theorised to happen in both directions so when weight is gained and lost. This theory may explain why most people stay around the same weight without paying attention to their calorie intake. Not that the body finds a 'happy weight' all by itself randomly and then wants to stay there.

I would carry on as you are, scrap the scales for now and choose one item of clothing you want to get into but can’t. Preferably something with a zip, like trousers. Once a week at the same time try on the trousers. This will give you a much better idea of your weight loss.

I don't really believe in calories in/calories out any more! I think it is more complicated than that. I'm 53 and trying to maintain my weight and I am finding it increasingly hard. I don't eat breakfast. Lunch is the mythical 'massive salad' with a bit of cottage cheese on then a piece of fruit. Dinner is a small portion of whatever we are having plus lots of veg, pudding is kefir yogurt with fruit in. I don't drink alcohol. I walk an average of 25,000 steps a day. I can maintain my weight on this but not lose any but when I was younger I would lose 2-3 pounds a week doing this. It seems bonkers to me!

If your clothes are fitting better, is it possible you’ve swapped fat for muscle? So your weight hasn’t changed but your shape has?

Try intermittent fasting and push breakfast back or skip a few days a week.
You have done well so far.

That's not on.
You can't come and tell the OP she's NOT eating the amount of calories she says she's eating.
Don't accuse her of not knowing what calorie intake she's eating, it's unbearably condescending.
Being an athlete, you will have high muscle mass which burns calories faster and means you can consume a certain amount of calories and lose weight compared to someone with much lower muscle mass who eats the same amount of calories. Plus your athletic training will burn through way more energy compared to the 'regular person' level of ordinary exercise OP is doing.
I'm really surprised - being an athlete and all - that you don't already have this knowledge base, actually.

Women don't gain significant amounts of muscle in calorie deficit. Thats not how our bodies work.

I think carbs don’t work for me as they cause water retention for some reason.

im wheat free and maybe it’s that type of bread/pasta? Also they are higher in fat/calories for less so I get more calories if I avoid them!

OP I would suggest a blood test to include thyroid as that could be affecting your metabolism. The other thought is that you could also be converting fat to muscle which weighs more

Anyone who is pushing weights will gain muscle!

And how else do you explain clothes being looser while weight stays the same.

Unless the scales themselves are faulty I suppose. I never really trust domestic bathroom scales - maybe op should get some new scales?

You know you don't gain fat like that right? 'Gaining' 5lbs in a weekend is all water retention and over the next week or so it will go back down again. A 5lb fat loss is a significant amount and cannot be regained with a couple of days of excess.

whilst TDEE and science etc has a place, its not an exact science. There are many, many other factors that affect what your personal calorie target should be, its not the same maths for everyone. Even at my biggest i had to be on a small amount of cals to loose, even when the science said 1500, id lose nothing, cos the science doesnt take into account other factors.

My advice having lost 60% of my body weight (some with GLP1 assisstance) is trail and error your cals. Try 1400 and see if that kick starts you again. Or go the other way and do a week of 1700 and then back down to 1550

Cut out the snacks. It's hard at first, then it quickly becomes the new norm. I got into not having snacks (even fruit) because I had invisalign braces and since then continued to do this.

Not having snacks cuts out a few extra calories without making it feel like an ordeal. Also it makes it much easier to listen to your body's signals of being truly hungry (not bored) and satisfied with the food you have eaten.

Try it and you will see results!

Unless you are definitely doing the running you mention you are not doing any cardio. Weights are strength training.

Could you add in a spin/cycle class? I found these the best way for me to shed the pounds.

You were asked upthread how old you are? In perimenopause your body holds hard onto fat as it likes the oestrogen it provides

You're doing really well, and don't be discouraged - keep at it! But you are eating a lot more calories than you think.

I find the only way to avoid hunger on a 1500 diet is to eat a lot of veg.
The source of the calories also matter - try to minimise the complex carbs and sugars (even fruit) and keep it to moderate protein, small amount of dairy and a lot of veg.

You could try a blood sugar monitor?

There are three factors which might be in play:

1. If you are weight training, you may be converting fat to muscle, which would make you slimmer and more toned, but not lighter. Using a tape measure to measure yourself once a week is the best way to see if this is happening. If you are getting slimmer, but not lighter, that isn't something to worry about and should eventually settle.
2. TDEE is not an exact science, unfortunately. The calculator might be overestimating what you are burning, so you might need to eat less. If you are 1200 approx at sedentary and 1500 at the activity level you have entered, the 'correct' figure might lie between those two and it will be a case of trial and error to reduce the amount until the scales start shifting.
3. It's possible you might be experiencing portion creep - from experience, it's easy to fall into this, increasing your portion sizes a little can add up over a week. The best way to deal with this is to weigh/measure strictly for a week and make sure you factor in any drinks that are not calorie free.

That's not how weight loss works

It's easy to get fixated on the scales @justmeandthedogs . I take it that you have been increasing the amount of exercise you do? If your clothes are looser then you are losing fat, it's just that you are building up muscle at the same time - which is a good thing, you'll feel better and look better.

Also don't worry so much about the ups and downs of your cycle. You're still losing weight all month, it's just that you need to compare against the same place in last month's cycle (if you see what I mean).

Lastly I agree with the people who have said try something different. Maybe increase calories for a couple of weeks, or try cutting carbs out for a few weeks - it doesn't really matter what, it's about trying to "kick start" your metabolism.

What’s your height

that seems high

knock off 300c s day and I’m sure you will lose weight

Women don't gain significant muscle in calorie deficit. This is just not a reasonable explanation for stalled weight loss.

Agree, especially not eating in the evening