In 4 years, 2029, UK deaths will exceed births!

Yes, and if politicians over the past few decades had planned for it, we could have survived it by going into debt for a generation or two. However, we still ran a deficit in Brown's "golden years" thus increasing the national debt in the "good" times, which is now already close to being unsustainable - our interest costs are more than we spend on education, borrowing interest rates are rising as we're not seen as a "safe" country anymore financially. We should have been saving in the good years to help us cope in the coming bad years, but instead we're heading into it with record high/expensive debt.

It's almost inevitable we'll have to go cap in hand to the IMF for emergency bail outs, and heaven knows what conditions they'll force upon the UK. Part of me thinks that the politicians want it to happen as then they're not the ones making the hard decisions that have needed to be made for 2 or 3 decades (or more). Whoever is in power will be able to stand back and say "not me guv" when the IMF instructs us to massively raise taxes, impose new taxes, start charging for the NHS, means test ALL state benefits (inc state pension etc) - all of which are necessary NOW, but weak politicians won't do it and probably hope they'll be retired on their gold plated pensions before the shit hits the fan!

India and Guyana have the fastest growing GDP in 2025. These places want to advance and they have the population especially india with its young population.

True.

It's interesting seeing social groups overlapping with social contagion.

I'm the only person in my "home" social group who hasn't gone for two under two. I get a lot of weird and goady pressure about it from some quarters in that group. However my antenatal friends have universally NOT gone for two under two, and at least some of us are deciding or sticking on one.

It's very interesting that my "home" group are very similar in background and all the same age, but my antenatal friends cover a 12y age range and a little more variety - but both show very similar groupthink. (Me being the exception to my home friends).

I didn't used to feel sorry for the boomers, but I do now! They couldn't help being born and now that they're retired or approaching retirement, some people want them to die. Even though a sizable number of them, including my own parents, are helping to care for their grandchildren.

The older generations don't die out though. We will still be a top heavy pyramid. Won't level out for several generations, if ever. The boom was an anomaly and we didn't plan for what comes next.
And birth rates are falling almost everywhere, very rapidly in lots of places. African won't have spare babies for us for much longer.

Studies show that eventually in 100 years the entire world will be on a downward trend, Africa last.
My concern is more about a major crisis happening before the situation stabilises: a combination of environmental, economic and political crises. The three together always drive upheavals. It's also hard to predict who will win the climate lottery and who will lose.

The issue is that it will take a significant amount of time for the older generations to 'go,' during which time there will be a massive population imbalance.

But once the older generations have gone, the overall population will have reduced so there will be no need to have extra workers. It isn't a bad thing if the world population reduced, however India and Africa are keeping numbers up.

There are about 9 million people not working, maybe if they did some work migrants would not be needed. Probably a lot of them will have no motivation to work as it’s impossible to get a house/flat on an average salary. Countries where there are no welfare benefits will forge ahead because you have to work to survive.

That's only part of it. Stupidly high childcare costs and stupidly high housing costs are a much bigger issue in that people simply can't afford to have more children (if any).

An issue running alongside that is that many parents who would love to work full time hours, take promotions, etc., can't because they can't afford the childcare, and therefore languish working part time or in lower level jobs, that work around childcare, thus contributing to the labour shortage and paying less taxes in proportion to full time workers (due to the relative proportions of lower wages within the personal allowance and basic rate band - i.e. such people may be higher rate taxpayers if they worked full time, but only basic rate or tax free because they're working part time!).

This is absolutely true, but one thing rabbits don't have is social contagion. The fall in birth rate is partly fuelled by circumstances but it is also driven in part by social media messages that devalue parenthood and convince people that having children is a bad or stupid choice. Eventually a significant proportion of people who got sucked in by that message will get older and realise what a stupid decision they made. There may be a resulting boom - who knows.

Thank you. It's hard not too though when people post about what a burden you'll be on other people's children in your old age and how they will be 'wiping your bum'.

@BurntBroccoli absolutely

Human populations are just mimicking the food pyramid we all learned in primary school, surely?

it's not a pyramid, that's the point

Yes and that is why a lot of private schools have closed.

Class sizes aren't about population size, they're about funding. Once there are fewer children, classes will be amalgamated, then schools.

Human populations are just mimicking the food pyramid we all learned in primary school, surely?

Rain and sunshine, lots of grass, boom in rabbit population. Lots of rabbits, boom in fox population, boom in rabbit fleas. Bust in rabbit population, bust in fox population, bust in fleas.

Boom in human population post war, rise in prices means bust in birth rate. Natural death of "boom" generation - transfer of wealth. Boom of subsequent generation with more assets.

There are supposed to be these ebbs and flows of populations. Rising exponentially doesn't work.

Nobody would "have to". It would still be a choice, only the alternative would no longer be benefits.

But we don't have high unemployment, most people on benefits work.

And a huge issue is the cost of housing and lack of council housing, so much tax to prop up landlords.

School class sizes are insane, 31 per reception class in London

primary rolls are falling

schoolsweek.co.uk/unfilled-primary-school-places-up-6-in-a-year-as-falling-rolls-bite/

@Strawberriesandpears don't feel guilty.

Classes have always been around 30 though in my experience and I’m 59.

These kind of discussions make me feel horribly guilty that I don't have children. Circumstances have prevented me from having them, and now I am basically too old.

I would like to contribute to society in other ways. I'll try to keep working for as long as possible so that I am paying my way, and I live pretty frugally and save money to fund my own care.

And I'll try to do some good in the community, probably through charity work.

I don't know if that is enough though, and I do still feel terribly guilty.

I agree. And I stand to inherit a decent amount from my hard working parents so I hope they don’t need care (for their own sake, not mine!) - but I can see that it’s mad that the state should pay when they have the means.

We need quality not quantity. We need the "right" kind of immigrants - those who are here to work and being a net contributor rather than minimum wage taking benefits top ups.

But so many people are only paid minimum wage or not much above,and are doing essential jobs. If people are receiving benefits whilst working does that mean that we should increase the minimum wage to reduce the benefits bill ?

I don’t think the boomers had loads of kids, though more than today. Think it was an average of 3. The generation before yes! My mother was one of 10!
With the introduction of the NHS many more babies survived hence the population explosion plus advances in healthcare and better nutrition.