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In 4 years, 2029, UK deaths will exceed births!

578 replies

TheMintCritic · 28/08/2025 20:30

Just came across this and thought it was wild… according to the ONS, by 2029 the number of deaths in the UK is expected to outnumber the number of births for the first time in decades.

  • Our fertility rate is only about 1.5 kids per woman, well below replacement.
  • Meanwhile, the population is ageing — all those baby boomers are moving into their 70s and 80s.
  • The result? The natural population growth turns negative, meaning any population increase will rely entirely on immigration.

It’s crazy to think that in just 4 years, births won’t even keep up with deaths. Makes you wonder what that’ll mean for schools, NHS, pensions, and housing.

OP posts:
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Cattenberg · 29/08/2025 11:18

somethingnewandexciting · 29/08/2025 11:11

Yes the whole system is bonkers. Hopefully ID cards will come in and finally we will link HMRC to everything else to catch the cheats in the system. I also think we should make fathers actually pay for their own kids to get mother's off welfare. It's crazy that that idea is seen as Radical.

I have a friend who works in debt recovery for the Child Maintenance Service, and whilst it's a while since we've talked about it, she had a fair amount of power! For example, she could view the defaulting dads' bank accounts, then would phone them. "I can see you have ÂŁ500 in that account. We're taking it to put towards your child maintenance arrears".

Badbadbunny · 29/08/2025 11:12

Livelovebehappy · 29/08/2025 11:06

It doesn't. But there are posters who are very bitter towards 'boomers' on the back of it. I'm saying that it was circumstance and outside sources that created the 'boom', which the generation of the.time were lucky enough to benefit from.

They didn't passively benefit from it. They intentionally voted for it, in GE after GE. They voted in Thatcher instead of Kinnock for example (not saying I favour Kinnock). They voted to demutualise their building societies and insurance providers to get a windfall. They bought shares in privatised utilities and sold them on within days to make a quick profit.

These are examples of how voters of that time voted for policies that benefitted them, so can't now say were merely bystanders in the decades where they massively benefitted.

Digdongdoo · 29/08/2025 11:12

SerendipityJane · 29/08/2025 11:10

When competition for houses drops the prices will drop and they will become more affordable rebalancing the market.

That can't be allowed to happen. Too many people have too much invested to allow it.

I'm not convinced it would happen anyway. Newer housing stock is poor quality. Houses will deteriorate faster then demand will reduce in my opinion.

somethingnewandexciting · 29/08/2025 11:11

Cattenberg · 29/08/2025 11:06

Our current system of funding social care is utterly unsustainable, which is why many councils are on the brink of bankruptcy, and have resorted to selling off their assets as a short-term fix. The whole system needs a total overhaul and fast. I don't think there's any alternative but to return to using central government funding, and also to bring more care facilities "in house", i.e. use fewer private care companies.

We might then be able to afford to pay care workers properly. For example, not paying carers for their travel time between domiciliary appointments is completely unacceptable.

Yes the whole system is bonkers. Hopefully ID cards will come in and finally we will link HMRC to everything else to catch the cheats in the system. I also think we should make fathers actually pay for their own kids to get mother's off welfare. It's crazy that that idea is seen as Radical.

SerendipityJane · 29/08/2025 11:10

When competition for houses drops the prices will drop and they will become more affordable rebalancing the market.

That can't be allowed to happen. Too many people have too much invested to allow it.

OutsideLookingOut · 29/08/2025 11:09

somethingnewandexciting · 29/08/2025 11:03

@OutsideLookingOut this is what govt's like the Trump administration are trying to change though - through the trad wife movement and anti-abortionist propoganda, controlling women will be easier for them than thinking of a "new way". Sadly only women think like that, men in power want to keep it.

I agree with you. It is why Elon Musk and co are always crying about the birth rate. If you are very successful in this system why would you want to change it? Even more important for those of us thinking like this to protect our “future” children and sadly that means for having less or none of them. I’m not producing the worker bee class in a technofeudal era - life is likely to be very hard for them. I hope at least with all the bad, fewer workers means they have more rights to negotiate a better life for themselves. I will likely suffer though.

somethingnewandexciting · 29/08/2025 11:08

TheMintCritic · 29/08/2025 11:04

The government are aware of the cost of older people even if they try to act like they are a country that looks after its old.

Look how the conservatives treated old people during Covid. It got exposed in the inquiry that Boris Johnson said that Covid is natures ways of dealing with old people.

Oh yes, but women are the unpaid labour that keeps it afloat. If there are fewer of us then that care gap goes and they have to actually pay for it (unless we want swathes of elderly dying in the street or alone at home). Easier to make women have kids and force women to take on care roles by not giving them real paid work, so they can be controlled and used as free labour. This is what I fear for my daughter (also happy to go to Dignitas when I get a terminal diagnosis so hopefully she won't have to do that for me).

Cattenberg · 29/08/2025 11:06

OutsideLookingOut · 29/08/2025 10:49

We want to know exploit but not be exploited. Is it possible to have a functioning economy without exploiting someone? It seems many people on this thread don’t care, they just don’t want to be inconvenienced.

Our current system of funding social care is utterly unsustainable, which is why many councils are on the brink of bankruptcy, and have resorted to selling off their assets as a short-term fix. The whole system needs a total overhaul and fast. I don't think there's any alternative but to return to using central government funding, and also to bring more care facilities "in house", i.e. use fewer private care companies.

We might then be able to afford to pay care workers properly. For example, not paying carers for their travel time between domiciliary appointments is completely unacceptable.

Livelovebehappy · 29/08/2025 11:06

sundayfundayclub · 29/08/2025 08:48

@Livelovebehappy why does recognising we have an ageing population & that pensions & the NHS are unaffordable = bitterness towards boomers?

It doesn't. But there are posters who are very bitter towards 'boomers' on the back of it. I'm saying that it was circumstance and outside sources that created the 'boom', which the generation of the.time were lucky enough to benefit from.

AnPiscin · 29/08/2025 11:06

KimberleyClark · 29/08/2025 10:56

Agreed plus more and more women are waking up to the fact that it isn’t necessary to have children in order to have a fulfilling and rich life.

Of course it's not necessary to have children to have a fulfilling and rich life. What concerns me is that many younger women seem to be rejecting motherhood based on its downsides (which are many, to be fair) rather than considering the bigger picture - not for society, but for themselves. They are choosing not to have a baby. The thing is, choosing not to have a baby means choosing not to have an 8 year old, not to have a teenager, not to have an adult child. It is a massive choice that has lifelong implications. If someone has considered all that and still thinks not having children is right for them, fair play. But I am not convinced everyone is thinking it through, partly because they are so defensive about it. Any attempt to discuss it always gets shouted down with 'you think women are only good for procreating,' and other such nonsense. The time to really consider the impact isn't when you're 60 and your friends are all busy visiting their adult children.

TheMintCritic · 29/08/2025 11:04

The government are aware of the cost of older people even if they try to act like they are a country that looks after its old.

Look how the conservatives treated old people during Covid. It got exposed in the inquiry that Boris Johnson said that Covid is natures ways of dealing with old people.

OP posts:
somethingnewandexciting · 29/08/2025 11:03

@OutsideLookingOut this is what govt's like the Trump administration are trying to change though - through the trad wife movement and anti-abortionist propoganda, controlling women will be easier for them than thinking of a "new way". Sadly only women think like that, men in power want to keep it.

OutsideLookingOut · 29/08/2025 11:00

KimberleyClark · 29/08/2025 10:56

Agreed plus more and more women are waking up to the fact that it isn’t necessary to have children in order to have a fulfilling and rich life.

And I can see the other side! It is going to be awful to be old or sick or disabled during this transition period with an inverted pyramid. But women would be the sacrifice even if we could go back (which at this point is not possible).

OutsideLookingOut · 29/08/2025 10:58

Badbadbunny · 29/08/2025 10:56

Nail on the head. Population growth is a ponzi scheme and all ponzi schemes eventually collapse.

They do but I don’t blame people for being scared about it. Our system also depends on the oppression and exploitation of others. I wonder of instead of trying to patch the old system we can think of a better one. So many technological advances are coming but I don’t think it is in the interest of the wealthy to change anything.

KimberleyClark · 29/08/2025 10:56

OutsideLookingOut · 29/08/2025 10:48

We can’t pretend like it is only social contagions:

  • every population where women have education and freedom, the birth rate falls
  • having contraception to plan family size
  • thoughtfulness about suitability to parent
  • weighing up affordability (which politicians especially right wing ones have advised for years)
  • having children with more thought for the children themselves
  • AI will replace many jobs and people thinking about this
And many more reasons, not at all coming from a bad place.

I personally refuse to have children to take on low paid hard work. We need carers, but how many of them want to be or can get by without benefits?

Agreed plus more and more women are waking up to the fact that it isn’t necessary to have children in order to have a fulfilling and rich life.

Badbadbunny · 29/08/2025 10:56

childofthe607080s · 29/08/2025 10:53

We can’t feed out population with the land we have so a shrinking population is long term needed anyway

we can’t house our population

we have high carbon footprint per head of population and reducing the numbers of people seems easier than getting people to do less harm

what is needed is a way to mange the downsizing - shouldn’t be beyond the wit of women

constant growth is a stupid thing to aim for and is bound to fail - manage the transition or crash your society - that is the real choice not trying to artificially keep to an arbitrary balance

Nail on the head. Population growth is a ponzi scheme and all ponzi schemes eventually collapse.

childofthe607080s · 29/08/2025 10:53

We can’t feed out population with the land we have so a shrinking population is long term needed anyway

we can’t house our population

we have high carbon footprint per head of population and reducing the numbers of people seems easier than getting people to do less harm

what is needed is a way to mange the downsizing - shouldn’t be beyond the wit of women

constant growth is a stupid thing to aim for and is bound to fail - manage the transition or crash your society - that is the real choice not trying to artificially keep to an arbitrary balance

somethingnewandexciting · 29/08/2025 10:53

OutsideLookingOut · 29/08/2025 10:49

We want to know exploit but not be exploited. Is it possible to have a functioning economy without exploiting someone? It seems many people on this thread don’t care, they just don’t want to be inconvenienced.

Yup, our kids should be paid more for labour based jobs than immigrants, even if ours didn't pass GCSEs and they have a degree. It's unfair for them to expect a better job if they weren't born here, right?

Digdongdoo · 29/08/2025 10:53

OutsideLookingOut · 29/08/2025 10:49

We want to know exploit but not be exploited. Is it possible to have a functioning economy without exploiting someone? It seems many people on this thread don’t care, they just don’t want to be inconvenienced.

Of course it's possible. But far too many people think that everyone else should be the ones to compromise.

OutsideLookingOut · 29/08/2025 10:49

somethingnewandexciting · 29/08/2025 10:48

They want cheap labour but not migrant labour, yet wouldn't want their kids working in that field for that wage. They'd rather see them out there sticking flags on lamp posts.

We want to know exploit but not be exploited. Is it possible to have a functioning economy without exploiting someone? It seems many people on this thread don’t care, they just don’t want to be inconvenienced.

Dancingsquirrels · 29/08/2025 10:49

sundayfundayclub · 28/08/2025 23:58

The state can't afford assisted dying though, the dignity & protocols will make it too expensive. People would have to self fund.

Nah, the state would be more than happy to kill off those pesky ill / old people on benefits and in poor health. Far cheaper than providing decent quality care and medical treatment. And many safeguards quickly watered down

Euthanasia dressed up as "assisted dying" to imply autonomy and choice

sundayfundayclub · 29/08/2025 10:48

It's almost inevitable we'll have to go cap in hand to the IMF for emergency bail outs, and heaven knows what conditions they'll force upon the UK.

It's going to be painful

Part of me thinks that the politicians want it to happen as then they're not the ones making the hard decisions that have needed to be made for 2 or 3 decades (or more). Whoever is in power will be able to stand back and say "not me guv" when the IMF instructs us to massively raise taxes, impose new taxes, start charging for the NHS, means test ALL state benefits (inc state pension etc) - all of which are necessary NOW, but weak politicians won't do it and probably hope they'll be retired on their gold plated pensions before the shit hits the fan!

I think this is true now & actually don't blame them because people don't want to hear it.

Look at some of the stupid comments on this thread, people talking about their gps providing childcare.

somethingnewandexciting · 29/08/2025 10:48

sundayfundayclub · 29/08/2025 10:11

If we only want high earners coming in, we need to start plugging the low paid gaps ourselves. Or accept that elderly and disabled people can't be cared for in their own homes. We can't have it all ways.

People want it all ways though don't they. Don't want to spend money on care for themselves & want cheap labour but they want high care.

They want cheap labour but not migrant labour, yet wouldn't want their kids working in that field for that wage. They'd rather see them out there sticking flags on lamp posts.

OutsideLookingOut · 29/08/2025 10:48

AnPiscin · 29/08/2025 10:30

This is absolutely true, but one thing rabbits don't have is social contagion. The fall in birth rate is partly fuelled by circumstances but it is also driven in part by social media messages that devalue parenthood and convince people that having children is a bad or stupid choice. Eventually a significant proportion of people who got sucked in by that message will get older and realise what a stupid decision they made. There may be a resulting boom - who knows.

We can’t pretend like it is only social contagions:

  • every population where women have education and freedom, the birth rate falls
  • having contraception to plan family size
  • thoughtfulness about suitability to parent
  • weighing up affordability (which politicians especially right wing ones have advised for years)
  • having children with more thought for the children themselves
  • AI will replace many jobs and people thinking about this
And many more reasons, not at all coming from a bad place.

I personally refuse to have children to take on low paid hard work. We need carers, but how many of them want to be or can get by without benefits?

sundayfundayclub · 29/08/2025 10:46

@Strawberriesandpears people are talking collectively. I'm not even young but I worry about sitting in my own shit & being left to starve.

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