Euro elections results

[policywonk]

Here's one prediction www.predict09.eu/default/en-us/state_analyses.aspx#united

Cheeringly, it reckons that the BNP won't win a seat. Here's hoping.

[Swedes]

Policywonk - I hope Predict09 are correct.

I've found the very best place to look for election outcomes is William Hill, the bookies. They sadly have the BNP 1/5 ods on to win a www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=12435 seat in the Euro elections]]

[Swedes]

here, sorry

[Divvy]

When are the results in?

[MrsMattie]

God, they've got UKIP doing well, haven't they? That's depressing.

[policywonk]

Oh dear Swedes, let's hope not. One sliver of hope might be that that seems to be an old-ish page (in that they're still talking about whether or not Martin will stand down) and the BNP's chances seem to have been downgraded over the last couple of weeks.

Is 1/5 more or less likely that 5/1? I don't understand odds.

Divvy - results are tomorrow evening.

[Swedes]

PW You are right, they have been more recently downgraded. But the odds are still in favour of them winning a seat. The odds (at William Hill) when the betting closed were 2/5 on. That means out of five equivalent elections, the BNP are likely to win a seat at three of the five elections, and win no seat at two of the five elections.

sorry about the flashing lights thing on the page

[policywonk]

Thanks for the explanation Swedes

Fingers crossed for tomorrow night...

[knockedgymnast]

That's a blessing in disguise smallwhite cat

[SomeGuy]

Traditional bookmakers are liable to give you short odds.

You'll get fairer odds at sports.betfair.com/. THese are set by other people. The back/lay odds are currently 1.29/1.42 (market is not terribly liquid, otherwise the back and lay odds would be much closer). This is about 1/3, i.e. a 75% chance

[Swedes]

SomeGuy - We aren't looking at it as a money making opportunity.

[SomeGuy]

actually I meant that their odds overstate the probability a little. In other words it's actually slightly less likely that the BNP will get a seat than their odds imply.

Because of their profit margin.

[SoupDragon]

Why on earth have they not counted them yet??

[policywonk]

Thanks SomeGuy.

I still don't understand odds but will happily believe what other people tell me about them...

Soupy, dunno whether they have counted them or not, but they're not allowed to announce until tomorrow night cos other countries are still voting over the weekend.

[SoupDragon]

But the other countries aren't voting for our MEPs are they? Although, TBH, I have no idea whatsoever what I was voting for (other than against the BNP - it was the main reason I voted).

[policywonk]

I guess the thinking is that people in other countries might be affected in their voting decisions by the way results went in other countries.

Same reason they don't release exit polls in elections here until the polls have closed everywhere. Or, why US television networks now try to desist from calling elections until polls have closed in all the states (following ructions when they called Florida too early in the 2000 presidential election).

[Swedes]

Someguy - "This is about 1/3, i.e. a 75% chance"
Those odds are more likely than the William Hill odds I posted of 2/5.

[policywonk]

Now I don't know WHAT to think

Is 1/3 the same as 3/1-on?

[SomeGuy]

er, you posted 1/5, not 2/5 Swedes.

yes, 1/3 is 3/1 on.

With fractional odds you add the two numbers together to form the denominator and then second number is then the numerator.

So 1/3 is a 3/(1+3) implied 75% chance the event will happen (to put it another way, if the event is more than 75% likely to happen, then those odds are good for the punter, and if it is less than 75% likely they are bad for the punter. And 3/1 is a 1/(3+1) = 25% chance.

[Swedes]

Someguy "er, you posted 1/5, not 2/5 Swedes."

See my post at Sat 06-Jun-09 16:41:14 on this thread. I said 2/5.

[policywonk]

Righto. Thanks.

[BoysAreLikeDogs]

[scratches head]

[Swedes]

[Swedes]

[retiredgoth2]

....I wouldn't mind an outside bet on Labour finishing not fourth, but fifth

(behind UKIP and the Greens)

I don't think the BNP will get a seat.

....it strikes me that PW's link is likely to be largely correct europe wide, but the very vastness of the survey will lead to a lack of local subtlety.

Fifth place..... that's out of the European Champions League, innit?