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Brexit effect on Ireland? Any opinions/knowlege

(31 Posts)
Jeanniejampots80 Thu 09-Jun-16 14:51:45

So obviously not important to the vast majority of mn but maybe to some. I know a fair few are considering taking up Irish passports but that won't really affect Ireland. Do we think the Irish economy will plummet if the UKs does will it benefit if the UKs decreases?
Will the border patrols with NI be restarted? Will we have an influx of businesses and workers and how will this effect our already getting out of the control housing market (again). Any opinions? I have to say the potential effect of the ref on our economy here worries me when we have absolutely no say in the matter

PlanBwastaken Thu 09-Jun-16 14:58:57

I think there will be an influx of British and multinational companies looking for a base inside the EU - it might be countered by Britain offering a more attractive corporation tax rate, though, and perhaps other incentives (we can't really complain in that case...).

Whether that will be enough to counter the negative effect of probable border controls and trade barriers, not to mention the monumental uncertainty until things like VAT on cross-border consumer sales and so on can be clarified, I don't know.

I suspect some sectors like accountancy and law will do well, while farming and other sectors relying on export to the UK will take a huge hit.

I'm not keen to see if I'm right - I think we would be massively disadvantaged being cut off from Europe, and unlike my family I don't welcome the reduced immigration border checks are likely to bring.

I'm shutting it, to be honest - what about you?

PlanBwastaken Thu 09-Jun-16 14:59:25

Shitting it, FGS

titchy Thu 09-Jun-16 15:09:14

More jobs for those working in Ireland's passport offices...

PlanBwastaken Thu 09-Jun-16 15:35:06

We'll that's no good, there's delays already!

A colleague with an EU passport applied for an Irish one recently to ensure she could move to the UK in the event of a leave vote, so it won't just be the Brits applying either.

Pangurban1 Thu 09-Jun-16 15:42:06

I'm curious about the "reduced immigration border checks are likely to bring?" For who and where?

BritBrit Thu 09-Jun-16 17:07:13

Our relations with the Republic of Ireland are historic & also bilateral, the deals we have on the common travel area pre date the EU, very little has to change if we Brexit, the remainers are just trying to stir up trouble. The effect of the economy would be minimal because free trade would continue it is in everyone's interest.

PlanBwastaken Thu 09-Jun-16 17:34:17

Pang, as the only way to get to Ireland will either be through the UK (with border checks), by plane or by ferry from France/other destinations, I would expect fewer migrants from Syria/Africa/Afghanistan to make it here. Personally I don't think we get a huge amount, my father would disagree...

Brit, I have no vote in the referendum so no use to convince me, but if free trade us in everyone's interest, why do countries like Japan and the US erect trade barriers...?

Are you saying that the voters concerned with immigration would be happy to leave the border to Ireland open? I doubt that.

Spinflight Thu 09-Jun-16 18:59:37

I think all of the cities which traditionally used the Western Approaches to trade with the rest of the world will benefit, including Northern Ireland.

Ireland itself though I think will take quite a large hit. There are many businesses which set up shop there to avoid UK taxes, Think Lidl, Aldi, Amazon and Ebay... I'm sure there are lots more but these are all very large. Amazon alone probably has a turnover close to $10 billion a year yet hardly pays any tax to the UK treasury ( think it was about £10 million a few years ago when it should have been billions).

They'll be forced to pay taxes in the UK instead which will mean that Ireland loses it's advantage here. I don't know the figures, but I rather suspect this will be billions, maybe even £10 billion or more per year. Quite damaging to Ireland's small economy I think.

Of course though this is merely correcting a wrong, the fact that so many businesses with huge turnovers pay hardly any UK tax is a scandal and has often been highlighted by campaigners.

As for the border I doubt it will be an issue at first, of course if smuggling became a real problem then things might have to change. I can't see how immigration would be effected, someone crossing the border into NI would still have to show where they were from, and likewise the opposite, in order to claim benefits or whatever.

Spinflight Thu 09-Jun-16 19:05:12

"Industry analysts estimate true UK sales of the six at £14.2billion. Yet they paid £41.3million in UK corporation tax – just 0.3 per cent."

No Lidl or Aldi, which I'm sure are headquartered in Ireland for tax purposes, though just those 6 firms evading tax in the UK costs us many billions per year.

One wonders how the treasury managed to miss such obvious benefits to Brexit in their analysis, indeed no benefits were seen at all....

IoraRua Thu 09-Jun-16 19:07:35

I think we should look at aligning closer to Europe in the event of Brexit. The prospect of boarder patrols worries me as to some republicans it will be reneging on the GFA. Immigration may possibly be a concern for the UK with people trying to travel from NI to Britain - the solution I see is enforcing passports when travelling between the two (afaik this isn't required?), though I can't imagine loyalists would be pleased.

As an EU member state with good transport links to the continent and a native speaking workforce I'm not too concerned about the impact on jobs in Dublin. I can't see it being good for Belfast. And I could see sectors like farming being hit.

IoraRua Thu 09-Jun-16 19:08:59

Whoops, that should be native English speaking workforce. And border, not boarder of course.

PlanBwastaken Thu 09-Jun-16 19:34:49

I would be very much surprised if Amazon and the likes pay 12.5% corporation tax here - isn't Google's effective Irish tax rate 0.025%? So the hit to the Irish exchequer should be more than offset by companies relocating here to stay in the EU.

I would not be counting on those companies to start paying the 'true' UK tax rate anytime soon - they'll go to whatever jurisdiction is cheapest.

I also think we would have to turn towards the EU in case of a Brexit - but so much if our economy is linked to the UK. What about my Amazon orders? grin

Also agree NI will be badly hit - I'd expect Scotland to push for independence and retained membership, but it's obviously not as clear-cut in Northern Ireland... I'm getting a headache just trying to picture it.

IoraRua Thu 09-Jun-16 19:42:21

I totally agree that I see Scotland pushing for and winning independence. Northern Ireland doesn't have the nationalist numbers to swing a yes to independence vote though, I think. Plus, as a Southerner I don't think many of the people I know actually want it at the moment - money pit, plus all the trouble from loyalists that would go along with a united Ireland. So does that then leave it as an independent state? I can't see that either...It's a headache, alright.

Justchanged Thu 09-Jun-16 21:05:31

I'm from NI and the prospect of Brexit worries me hugely.

- Arguing that free movement between NI and RoI predated the EU is not a valid comparison. The Republic joined at the same time as the UK so there has never before been a time when one country was in the EU but the other was not.

- If we stay in the single market then there's less of an issue, but as that means free movement then really, what's the point of Brexit?

- If the UK leaves the single market (the 'Albanian model') then an open border is unworkable. RoI will have free movement but the UK will not so if the UK really wants to cut immigration it needs to reinstate the border.

- Having a closed border has huge implications for the stability of NI. Growing up in NI, I had massively more in common with someone from the rest of Ireland than from Britain. it would unnecessarily reopen a grievance, widen division between the two parts of Ireland and mean that the Good Friday Agreement would need to be renegotiated.

- The impact on the Republic's economy is interesting. Their biggest export market is the UK so if there are now tariffs, those sectors of the economy would take a hit. Note this also means that people in the Uk would pay more for Irish imports, which is a 'real terms' pay cut as you pay more for the same things.

On the other hand, the Republic is a natural destination for companies - such as financial services and major multinationals -who want a headquarters in the EU. The Republic has the benefits of language, time zone and a well educated workforce (which can also draw upon educated EU migration), so there may be a boom in City-style jobs in Dublin. If the UK does a special deal with Ireland due to historic links this effect would be much greater as Ireland would have great terms with both the EU and UK (though not sure if EU rules would allow this).

- On NI, it's likely to become even more of a backwater than now, with potentially greater border controls to police the EU land frontier. There's also likely to be a huge boom in smuggling - including people trafficking. Great, Not.

Jeanniejampots80 Thu 09-Jun-16 21:27:03

I think it could be a disaster for lots of small firms and farmers and fantastic for big firms IT etc. As someone who grew up on the border I would hate to see patrols and checks back again. It just brought so much negativity but I can see how we might have to have them for both our benefits

Appletreeblossom123 Fri 10-Jun-16 01:09:09

As I've never been to Northern Ireland, can I ask a basic question about how things work now? Presumably, if you're catching a plane from Belfast to mainland UK, you can just make that journey with no ID checks of any kind?

KateInKorea Fri 10-Jun-16 05:34:36

No. By plane there are is checks (same as for any two UK airports). I haven't travelled by ferry for a long time, but the right to check remains.

Maursh Fri 10-Jun-16 11:04:17

I was in Cork for two weeks over Easter (looking at properties). The local consensus was that a Brexit vote will spark a similar referendum in Eire.

MrsBlackthorn Fri 10-Jun-16 11:07:10

Apple - in reality you need to show ID for airline security if flying to Belfast, just like flying to Scotland. But it doesn't have to be a passport and there isn't a full border check.

Question: what happens to Irish people in Britain? My dad is an Irish passport holder. No one can say if this will affect his entitlement to anything.

MaudGonneMad Fri 10-Jun-16 11:07:21

As I've never been to Northern Ireland, can I ask a basic question about how things work now? Presumably, if you're catching a plane from Belfast to mainland UK, you can just make that journey with no ID checks of any kind?

There are ID checks by the airlines at the boarding gates, but you don't pass through UK border control. Nor do you if you are coming from Dublin or Cork.

weirdsister Fri 10-Jun-16 11:08:42

This is an interesting thread. Would businesses that are set up in the Isle of Man but operate in the UK for tax reasons be affected in the same way?

Appletreeblossom123 Fri 10-Jun-16 13:35:52

Thank you for the replies. So as I understand it, there are currently checks by the airlines if traveling from Northern Ireland to mainland UK to check that passengers are who they say they are, but that is the sole purpose of the check (carried out by airline staff, not UK Border Agency Staff)? So if a passenger were to produce (say) a valid Pakistani passport, no one would question whether that passenger had the right to travel to England. The fact that the passenger has been able to produce valid ID is good enough? So it follows that if (in a post-Brexit world) the government wanted to impose additional entry requirements on EU citizens, it would either need to (a) attempt to control the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic; or (b) impose border controls within the UK itself, by having border staff checking passports of those traveling between NI and the UK mainland. Failure to do either (a) or (b) would make it easy for any EU citizen to circumvent the additional requirements by exercising their EU freedom of movement right to travel to (the Republic of) Ireland, then crossing the border into Northern Ireland and then traveling to the UK mainland. Is that right?

PlanBwastaken Fri 10-Jun-16 13:47:51

Yes, that's the way I read it too. Leaving the border to the republic open defeats the purpose of leaving the EU to restrict immigration, so I simply don't see a way around the checks.

Corkonians can be a contrarian bunch - I haven't come across anyone hankering for a referendum here. I think the 23rd is sneaking up on people, though, and they're starting to ask the same questions as in this thread - how would it actually work?

Jeanniejampots80 Fri 10-Jun-16 17:09:48

There is zero chance of a Brexit type vote in Ireland. At the moment we are a small fish in a big pond if we left the EU we would be like a goldfish in an ocean. No chance at all.

Our "prime minister" today said border controls would definitely be instituted and that while free travel north and south would remain they would be essential for customs

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