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To wonder if we are heading for another economic crash?

(44 Posts)
crunchymint Fri 09-Feb-18 10:35:59

Stock market dips, very slow economic growth, the collapse of Carillion and falling house prices in some areas, all seem to point to a possible economic crash in the near future.

Ghostontoast Fri 09-Feb-18 10:44:24

Add In Brexit as well and it could well be far worse here than in other eu countries.

crunchymint Fri 09-Feb-18 10:48:57

Oh yes Brexit. There is no way farmers are going to get the level of subsidies they got from the EU. And we must be spending a fortune on lawyers and negotiators.

PassTheAfterEights Fri 09-Feb-18 10:52:46

Might as well read the tea leaves for all I know but my filthy capitalist (lighthearted!!!) investment banker friend said this week that equities are about to take a hit and that signals a crash - or at least a shite market, don't want to put words in her mouth.

ThroughThickAndThin01 Fri 09-Feb-18 11:01:51

It’s well overdue. 10 years since the last one.

Hefzi Fri 09-Feb-18 11:06:44

Yes, it's overdue, and we still have massively disproportionate levels of personal indebtedness (not including mortgages here). Plus, China's been worrying for a while...

lljkk Fri 09-Feb-18 12:17:15

There's definitely a crash coming, but I don't think all that soon.
Markets just had a correction which makes a crash much less likely in next 2 yrs, now.

The massive fund movements caused by the US tax reforms (like Apple repatriating $250 billion) are going to have ripple effects worldwide, probably keep the main markets overheated and make a crash happen sooner than it could have (but still yrs away, is my prediction). Interest rates will be going up (somewhat). Some companies, like Apple, may invest as much as they do share buy-backs.

Brexit => much slower avg growth than we could have had staying half-in the EU, which is a kind of loss, but still growth in reality, not crash.

BumpowderSneezeonAndSnot Fri 09-Feb-18 12:21:02

If a crash happens who will it affect? Spenders or savers or people in debt or all and how?

Ifailed Fri 09-Feb-18 12:40:35

A crash is being engineered by the likes of Rees-Mogg, who want to move the country to a low tax, low-pay economy. As ever, the rich won't notice, but the least well-off will.

specialsubject Fri 09-Feb-18 12:43:22

Endless growth is not necessarily good, especially if it doesn't measure real stuff. Endless population growth is certainly very bad.

mothertruck3r Fri 09-Feb-18 12:44:49

Yes we are. Everything has been funded by debt, low rates and QE. We have been living on borrowed money for the last 10+ years. Time to get back to normality.

scaryteacher Fri 09-Feb-18 12:46:16

Watch Italy as QE is unwound by the ECB, who are the main purchasers of Italian debt.

There were some rumbles about Deutsche bank as well last week. I think the UK will be less hit than the EZ, as we have our own currency and central bank, and can react to things faster than the EZ can.

FluffyWuffy100 Fri 09-Feb-18 12:46:25

I’m very sure that we are on our way to another recession if not a depression. Made worse because we never recovered from the last one and also didn’t let the last one play itself out properly. Would have been batter in the long run for a shorter sharper shock.

KathArtic Fri 09-Feb-18 13:13:58

Well if we do time to buy stocks and shares - and even a buy-to-let.

translationAndRotation Fri 09-Feb-18 13:17:47

I suspect so.

I've sold 3 properties and all our stocks and shares and invested in Singapore government bonds.

If / when there's a crash I'll of course invest in the UK again. Smart investment can mean there are great gains to be made.

AgathaRaisonDetra Fri 09-Feb-18 13:32:57

Well, translation, lucky bugger you.

BumpowderSneezeonAndSnot Fri 09-Feb-18 13:39:05

So how will it affect joe and jane blogs who have a few grand in savings and a mortgage and a credit card that gets paid off. Or won't it. It seems to be it'll effect people who are over stretched

FluffyWuffy100 Fri 09-Feb-18 14:12:52

@BumpowderSneezeonAndSnot same way any recession hits the little people. Job insecurity. Austerity. Declining public services and infrastructure.

Sparklesocks Fri 09-Feb-18 15:34:42

Most likely yes, it feels like we’ve barely recovered from the last one..

crunchymint Fri 09-Feb-18 15:36:15

I agree it feels like we haven't recovered from the last one, but all the signs are there that things will only get worse.

CreativeMumma Fri 09-Feb-18 16:22:39

Is there anything ‘normal’ ppl can do to plan ahead other than not take out loads and try to save?

CakeOfThePan Fri 09-Feb-18 16:29:12

This may be just how Things are for me but I don’t think we properly recovered from the last one. it’s felt like a false unstable odd bubble building to something bigger.

translationAndRotation Fri 09-Feb-18 16:29:47

What do you mean @cruchymint ?

House prices and the FTSE are doing well. We've more than recovered and that's the reason for the small dip recently. Over-corrections lead to over-corrections the other way.

Don't be an idiot and buy property you can't afford in the long term is the only advice people need. If you're mortgaged up to your eyeballs then you have no reason to complain if you become stuck in negative equity or struggle with repayments. Greed is the great undoing of economies.

MinnieMousse Fri 09-Feb-18 16:35:41

Job insecurity. Austerity. Declining public services and infrastructure.

What's most concerning is that we already have all of this. There may be high levels of "employment", but this masks high underemployment of part-time workers and those on zero hours contracts who are all very vulnerable. I work in education and budgets are already incredibly tight.

worridmum Fri 09-Feb-18 17:09:52

Yes wages are at a all time low but rent is at an all time high something has to give soon are people are going to be priced out of being able to rent (most minimum wage people at spending 90%+ on rent these days and in the south east more so requiring housing benefit which lines the pocket of some of the most greedy people, there is no need for constent rent increases year on year well above inflation as in my experence landlords will increase the rent about about 3-5% and in some cases more so.

What we need is a house market crash and rent control being brought in to stop cash rich people snapping up all the foreclosed properties and then charging massive rents on them.

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