To wonder if we are heading for another economic crash?

[crunchymint]

Stock market dips, very slow economic growth, the collapse of Carillion and falling house prices in some areas, all seem to point to a possible economic crash in the near future.

I’d say almost certainly, all the signs are there. Overheating equities, frenzy of IPOs, volatile futures markets, jittery currency markets, intraday swings based on fairly negligible data, etc. But then you could say that at any time as economic cycles are a fairly permanent fixture of capitalism. They come along every 10-15 years in one form or another and correct the position by finishing weak businesses and empowering strong ones. The problem is that the last crash didn’t fully correct everything due to intervention so this one has been brewing for a while.

And I agree with PP, the likes of JRM will use a crash to get richer and to create the economic structure they want. The rest of us are disposable and irrelevant in their eyes, particularly those who are not economic contributors like the sick, the old and the poor. Evil fuckers.

@translationAndRotation

House prices and the FTSE are doing well. We've more than recovered and that's the reason for the small dip recently. Over-corrections lead to over-corrections the other way.

We bought just before the crash and still have negative equity. Houses prices have not recovered everywhere.

OP yes I agree we’re headed for one and also think that in most parts of the country things never fully recovered post the last recession

translation I know in London estate agents are saying that in most areas houses are selling for less than the advertised price. The average price of a home dropped 0.6% in January in Britain.

The stock market tumbled 2 days ago, although it has recovered a bit.

The point is that alone all the signs would not mean a lot, but there are so many negative economic signs at the moment. I know for some time economists have been pointing out that the real fall in wages, except for those on minimum wage, was a bad economic sign.

@FluffyWuffy100 What's the difference between a recession and a depression?

Recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. A depression is usually classified as an extended and severe period of recession. Usually a depression has a significant effect on employment and income levels.

I think every year things are getting worse in the UK. Wages declining in real terms and living costs going up. I was earning £11.50 an hour in a low ish wage area in 2004 but would only be worth £11-£13 an hour in the UK right now depending on the area. But that same £11.50 an hour would buy considerably less nowadays. People are feeling the squeeze year on year.
I think something is going to happen soon. Maybe it'll be a good thing, who knows but I'm glad we got out when we did

Possibly. I have survived a good few of them. The 70s properties crash was pretty nasty. The 90s was too.

in the US as their corporate taxes have been put right down that had a major effect very recently and then after some people's shares had been up to 20% up on the year ( a massive increase compared with your average building society return) not surprisingly we had that recent huge correction. The US may have to put interest rates up as I think their inflation has gone over 3%.

UK has its fullest employment for a very very very long time and those on the minimum wage (a lot of people) had the increase in that relatively recently I think - can't remember when and certainly here in the SE we are starting to see some shortages of workers - employers finding it hard to recruit drivers for example and a lot of Poles etc have gone home as the pound and euro have been almost on a par. If we have labour shortages we might well see some wage inflation (which would please a lot of workers I suspect).

Now is probably a good time to try to lock in your mortgage (if you have one) on a 5 year fix if you can and don't go part time or turn any work away - just try to shore things up in case hard times come. Cut back on things you don't need to get ready. House prices are dropping where I live in the SE although have not reached pre credit crunch levels from where I am original from (a part of the North) - it is a very mixed picture.

Another crash? Great I work in the public sector and haven't seen any signs of recovery for 10 years - let alone the wage inflation people go on about... I live in a relatively undesirable area and houses are still overpriced, ridiculously so when you consider the local wages.

I feel like intervening in the last crash has caused this whole bubble so it didn’t adjust or ride out as it should have done.
We are private renters who tried to buy just before the last crash (literally the week the lenders stopped lending) due to a number of enforced house moves by landlords we haven’t tried since and were hoping we might try again soon. But I think that ship may have sailed!
But in that time houses have gone from £250,000 to £400,000 to £500,000. I mean how many people earn £100,000 to get that mortgage? I just don’t know

I did hear an economist recently say If chickens had gone up the same as houses they would now cost £50 each and £100 in London.

Interesting thought that intervening in the last crash is going to cause another one.
Prices have not gone up a great deal everywhere. Migrants moving out of Britain though must be having an impact on employers and housing. Stupid Brexit as those people were a net gain to our country.

The problem is 10 years ago we had room to save and cut but we’ve had 10 years of cuts now and if we hit the rocks I can’t see where the buffer would come from. Our public services are starved and in desperate need of funds. It feels like the front lines have been cut but the management tiers are still strong. The fact we are still cutting worries me, there’s nothing left to give

I live in an area with high immigrants and haven’t seen many leave, if anything there seems a sudden surge and they seem to be putting roots down with kids in schools etc. But I appreciate that may be just where I live.

I think it's a mixed picture and more are coming (we still have something like 250,000 a year net immigration so many more coming than leaving) as their last chance (those from the EU) but also some leaving like skilled Poles because the pound is not as good against the euro as it was (and most of those intended always to go back home anyway eventually).

I live in an area with high immigrants and haven’t seen many leave

If they were shorter would it make it easier?

crash is being engineered by the likes of Rees-Mogg, who want to move the country to a low tax, low-pay economy

What do you mean move to? Aren't wages already pretty shite and tax relatively low?

What are the yields on singapore bonds and where do you get them?

The problem was debt and that problem is worse. Central banks have been saying they will slow or reverse QE and that will raise rates. If rates go up high enough the stock market will come down, but also those in debt (i.e. everyone) will have much higher payments to make.

I think this will be worse than 2008.

It is Eastern European migrants who are leaving.