Job change dilemma - stay or go?

[BillBobandBen]

Looking for some outside perspective on a potential job change.

I’ve been with my current company for around 15 years, starting at the bottom and working my way up. There’s no real progression left — roles above me are filled, and when they do open, management tends to hire externally. I’m trusted to get the work done but feel fairly invisible, with no real growth, training, or development or raise.
I’ve been offered a new role with roughly £20k more salary, which on paper feels significant. However, it would be a much busier environment with far less flexibility. Childcare is a major concern — my current part-time setup allows me to cover wraparound care myself, but the new role doesn’t offer part-time or flexible hours, meaning paid wraparound childcare would be needed and would eat into the pay rise. One child starts secondary school in September, the other will still be in primary.
I’m mid-30s, so staying put for another 10–15 years with no progression feels risky. At the same time, my current role is stable, generally low stress between peak periods.
The new role offers more money and potential growth, but also unknown culture, higher demands, and less flexibility.

For those who’ve been in a similar position — is it safer to prioritise stability of the known, or take the jump?
Thanks

Work out the numbers.

but also… remember primary school is short, soon both will be in senior and not need that care or expense, and you’ve been given the chance to grow so you can use this time wisely now to leverage an even better job with flexibility in another couple of years…. Or you can stay where you are, comfortable but invisible.

if you want to stay, I’d consider telling current company why you’re leaving and give them the opportunity to give you that progression, but if not.. go.

As someone who (now 51) stayed rather than take the promotion at a very similar stage of life, I'd say 100% go for it. 15 years is a long time and any change will be scary but the longer you leave it the harder it gets and honestly, I think you could find yourself still there doing the same job in another 15 years and trust me, it's a LOT harder at 50+.

Additional childcare costs are presumably a shared cost (assuming you have an OH) and the one starting secondary in september won't need childcare. You'll need to consider holiday cover too and maybe (again assuming there's an OH) take some unpaid parental leave between you to cover it, but this is a decent salary jump and I'd take the leap and make sure you then push yourself to progress further in another couple of years.

As someone (now 45) who was in your exact position five years ago (with kids same age, yr7 + yr5) I’d also say go for it.

I loved my job and I still miss it for various reasons but I couldn’t keep doing it for another 20 years. The leave made me realise all the skills I had that were being taken for granted; plus everyone still saw me as 24yr old AirMax and there was no way to change that.

I actually didn’t love the job I moved to, but realising jobs weren’t forever was monumental. The confidence it gave me means I’ve just moved into my dream job at a much higher level than I could ever have imagined, and am now earning more than double what I was five years ago.

Why settle for mediocrity so early in your career? Good luck with your decision!

I had the same dilemma and made the move a few months ago, but I was fortunate to only have one child who is in secondary so have been able to manage without needing wraparound childcare. There are pros and cons (cons are that the job is busier and much more tiring than my old one, the commute is longer so I have to get up a lot earlier and the biggest is that my child comes home to an empty home for two hours before I get back, which I feel terribly guilty about but which he seems to actually quite like!) . Upside is the chance to progress in my career. I think whether you go for it will depend on how old your youngest child is, and cost of childcare provision, versus the increase in salary. Also , you’ve probably already considered this but will the increase in salary put you into a higher tax bracket? If so the take home difference may be negligible.