Include bonus when evaluating job offer or not?

[Puppalicious]

I’m evaluating a new job offer (was headhunted). Happy in my current job so really would have wanted a 20/25% salary increase to consider moving. Increase to base salary is roughly 20%. On top of that is a potential 50% bonus, half based on my performance, half on company performance.

However, in my current job, I have performance related pay (which is said to be discretionary but is pretty much guaranteed) and generous pension contributions amounting to over 25%. Therefore if I don’t get any bonus in the new job, I would be actually earning less than in my current job. If I meet my own targets but the company doesn’t meet its targets, then my new package would be roughly 10% more than current package. Which I don’t think is quite enough to move.

if I and company meet targets, new package is 36% higher.

Any thoughts on how I should evaluate this?

thanks!

Any thoughts? Really not sure!

I'm in airline industry and this is the 1st year after 2019 they've finally started paying bonuses again. I'm not too keen on trusting bonuses anymore, it's not guaranteed money

As you're happy in your current job I think this is a bit of a risk - would be different if you were keen to move.

Yes be actually moved twice before and promised bonuses didn’t materialise (first time because of economic crash, but base salary increase still made it worth it, second time was a salary decrease but move was made for job satisfaction reasons and massively worked out in long run).
There are definitely other benefits to this job in terms of expanding my skill set but it will come with increased stress, I have 3 children from 3yo up and am currently in a sweet spot of good salary and challenging work with a reasonable work-life balance so I’m really not sure it’s worth it.
Thanks for your thoughts.

I'm not too keen on trusting bonuses anymore, it's not guaranteed money

Well obviously! That's why it's called a "bonus" 😁

Would they be willing to tell you the %age of bonus that has been paid over the last 5 years to employees in the same position?
TBH I wouldn't move either under those conditions. DH gets bonuses which can be very generous, but how much and how guaranteed has varied hugely between companies (despite all positions being in businesses producing the same products as each other).

I would probably stay, but I don't like too much work related uncertainty! Especially if I was comfortable on my current salary. It sounds like a risk that might not be worth it?

Thanks all, I’m starting to think that way. A lot of risk and stress for potentially little reward.

A bonus is great if you get one. I moved companies and even got less than pro-rated promise bonus where I had 100% of bonuses in previous company. I do have good contributions to pension which at my age is good for me right now