Gorton & Denton by-election thread

[fromorbit]

This dramatic byelection to be held on Thursday 26 February 2026 is looking likely to have a confrontation over sex and gender with the Conservative's just announced candidate Charlotte Cadden being a trustee for Sex Matters. Another factor is with a large Muslim population in the area the group Muslim Vote has endorsed the Green candidate despite one of their aims to be remove teaching about LGBT issues from schools when religious parents object. Obviously in conflict with Green policy.

Candidates

• Angeliki Stogia will be the Labour candidate in this year's election. Ms Stogia moved to the UK from Greece in the 1990s and has served as a councillor in Whalley Range since 2004.
• Reform UK have selected GB News presenter Matt Goodwin as their candidate. He studied at the University of Salford and went on to have a career as a commentator and academic.
• The Liberal Democrats have selected local campaigner Jackie Pearcey as their candidate. She lives in the constituency and previously won 2,600 votes at the 2017 elections.
• The Green Party have put forward Hannah Spencer to stand for them at the by-election. She is a plumber by trade she is from Bolton and has lived in Greater Manchester all her life, and is based in Hale where she is a councilor. She doesn't believe biology is important in deciding gender.
• The Conservative Party have chosen former detective chief inspector Charlotte Cadden as their candidate. She served for 30 years in GMP and London's Met.
• The Re-join EU Party have announced that Joseph O'Meachair will be their candidate. He is a member of the party's executive committee and lives in the North West.

Sebastian Moore (Social Democratic Party)
The Social Democratic Party announced on Friday 30 January that the current SDP North West Chair Sebastian Moore will be running as their candidate in the by-election.

Nicholas Brendan Buckley Advance UK

He is a British charity worker and political figure who previously represented Reform UK.

Dan Clarke is the Libertarian Party candidate

Sir Oink A-Lot
Sir Oink A-Lot is The Official Monster Raving Loony Party candidate

https://whocanivotefor.co.uk/elections/parl.gorton-and-denton.by.2026-02-26/gorton-and-denton/

The just announced Conservative candidate has serious form:
Former detective chief inspector Charlotte Cadden is a lesbian served for 30 years as a Police Officer, both for Greater Manchester Police and the Metropolitan Police - Charlotte is a trustee of the charity Sex Matters, a member of the LGB Alliance Business Forum. She coordinates the Women’s Rights Network in Greater Manchester, In 2023, she set up the national Police SEEN.

Galloway's Worker's Party have now decided not to stand. They may have attracted a bunch of Muslim votes which will now go elsewhere.

Any hustings are going to be rather interesting.

"Kemi talks the talk" she's a political detritovore who has sat idle and helmed the last gasps of a dying party, you may be her only supporter.

The greens won with just under 15k votes. Labour recieved just over 9k votes.

In the last election, labour won with over 18k, and an estimated nearly 31k votes in 2019. Around 10k didnt vote who did in the 2010s

They seem to be falling into the Conservatives trap of hemorrhaging votes. Part of that could be down to it being a by-election, people miffed that it wasnt burnham, voters prefering reform and green policies.

But if they had motivated the 10k no shows, they could've won. Especially if they listened to people who reluctantly switched to green and reform.

Its tough for the government in by-elections, but this, i think, indicates that lots of voters are being ignored, taken for granted or that their votes dont count.

Despite what people say, the 10 000 extra votes for the Greens could've come predominantly from the muslim vote. They are the ones who were targeted and listened to, they had incentives to vote.

So long as we don't end up with the sort of governance that Germany ( or Scotland) has - which passed Gender Self Id because they were/are beholden to the mad Greens and 'progressives'.

I like the SDP, but, sadly, they only got 47 votes.

I doubt it. She’s doing better than Starmer with ratings. Perhaps all of them bar Ed maybe.

You would be wrong, Kemi is gaining support month on month:

https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/53845-who-would-be-the-best-prime-minister-january-2026

• "The proportion of Britons backing Badenoch in head-to-heads against Starmer, Farage or Davey has increased 8-10 points since August"

I suspect if there was a higher muslim turn-out than usual ( plus any reported incidents of family block voting) then it will have been about Gaza, not about the Green's economic policies......which are very much tied up with their social and cultural policies. The Greens appeal to sectarian sympathies ( anti Narendra Modi and Israel sentiments written in Urdu- to reach those that do not have English as their first language or who may usually be alienated from voting at all).

We will have to disagree on that point, I'm afraid.

I personally have very little issue with governance that subscribes to the concepts of inclusivity, tolerance, and respect.

There are a lot of students in that ward too.

You support Gender Self ID?

There is nothing inclusive, tolerant, or respectful about allowing men into spaces where women and girls are undressed or otherwise vulnerable. Only a man with nefarious intent would wish to enter such spaces. Give your head a wobble.

I have friends who have said they'd like to vote LD but Ed Davey himself is the problem. His publicity seeking stunts are the thing putting them very firmly off. They want a heavy weight leader who isn't doing stupid shit for social media - for would be LD voters this approach is clearly having a particularly negative impact as its the antithesis of what they are seeking. They currently don't know who they will vote for.

The month of an election is really going to affect the outcome.

I don't think so. I think people are automatically assuming the Conservative party is over......and basing that on the last election defeat and the atmosphere that surrounded it...but I think with time they could attract back many old voters, plus gain others, if they can re-brand and keep a distance from Reform; and especially if Labour lurches to the Left culturally.

Some old Labour voters may throw in their lot with the Greens permanently, whilst others may drift back to Labour should it move to the Left...splitting the Left wing vote.

Despite the obvious flaws in your statement, you are correct in your general assertion that men should not be allowed into spaces where women and girls are undressed and/or vulnerable.

I like Kemi and I like that she's quietly doing things that matter even when it doesn't get media attention e.g. she recently had a meeting talking to parents whose children who died in part because of their exposure to social media.

I believe she is intelligent, competent and responsible. What she's not is prone to publicity stunts or a narcissist unlike many of the other leaders.

I definitely am team Kemi but whether my vote for a conservative will be worthwhile remains to be seen.

Yes the extra votes could well have and IMO probably did.
If just 10% of any local electorate are strongly motivated by a specific issue and vote a particular way they can cause huge swings. Íts why swing voters are so powerful and so courted by politicians. It's also why Reform have been able to pull of wins in the past. (And why I think issues like trans women in sports in America mattered in their election).

However, this "power" is tempered by the fact you usually have to be willing to compromise in other areas. And by the fact that if a policy is a red line for large numbers of other people it won't work. Because instead of swinging an evenly split vote your single issue voting block of 20% is going up against 80% opposed <a simplification but YSWIM.) Catholic voters who care about social justice could swing a purple constituency for Labour. They couldn't easily swing it for a party completely opposed to abortion in any form because too many people would vote against them on principle.

It's the people trying to imply this is somehow a stepping stone to Islamisation or Shariah law that I was disagreeing with. If step 1.is "vote for a party led by a gay Jew with radically socially liberal policies" and step 3 is "Shariah law" it's hard to see what steps 2 is.

What's most likely to happen is that as a single issue becomes less relevant that single issue swing voting block fades away. Assuming a key motivator for swing voters was Gaza then if that became less of an issue (if suddenly peace broke out and all was well or if another party changed it's policies) the Greens would likely lose support as fast as it came. Which isn't a bad thing in itself. Swing voting/single issue voting is different to purely sectarian voting and probably healthier than tribal party loyalty.

But you believe that some men are women ( TWAW)?

What flaws are there in my statement? If they are so obvious I am sure you can quickly type them out...

I do agree that the Muslim vote for the Greens is not likely to be a long term phenomena - though I do think that there will likely be more independent Muslim candidates, especially in areas with large muslim populations.

Regarding the Greens and their heavy slant towards being anti Israel/Zionism......It will be interesting to see how this plays out, especially how it impacts upon Polanski and on support for him. There is certainly a strong element in the Green party that has absolutely chosen 'anti Israel' and TWAW as the hills they are prepared to die on.

I’m happy with her leadership. She gets a lot of support online, gets Starmer bristling and is well placed to be someone who can step in if and when the other parties blow out spending.

There could be. But then they would likely be voting on their own, rather than with other people as the deciding vote. And there's very few places that have the demographics for that to work Gorton and Denton it wouldn't. Bradford, Birmingham maybe parts of East London. Muslims only comprise 6-8% of the population but they are concentrated in specific areas..Even if they all decided to vote for the Muslim candidate you would wind up with a maxim of 3 in the HoC. Íts why identity based voting alone is less politically effective than issue based voting as issue based voting gives you the deciding vote by adding your vote on top of an existing pile.

I agree that it would be very much identity based voting, though I do think this is the way that things seem to be going - with people voting on very specific issues that align with their cultural identities.

I suspect that most the densely populated muslim communities will tend to be poorer, less educated, more 'working class' and so may identify more strongly with ethnic- cultural factors

Except this is a hypothetical scenario not what is happening now. And not the one that would make the most sense for the people voting either if they wanted to affect change. And even if this hypothetical situation did happen it wouldn't give Muslim hardliners any real power.
You don't have to agree on Gaza or even care about it to see it's an issue not an identity based vote (of course our opinions on issues are affected by our identity). If I made single sex spaces a red line and encouraged other GC women to do the same, maybe hired billboards with each parties stance on the issue... That's trying to efféct issue based voting. Yes I probably care more because I'm a woman but that doesn't mean my theoretical voting block of TERFs are only voting on identity.