The point is trans minors are restricted from health care but other minors are not.
No. Trans minors are entitled to exactly the same care as other minors. Puberty blockers have only been approved in cases of precocious puberty, and both trans minors and non-trans minors can access them if they suffer from precocious puberty. That by definition means that there's exactly zero discrimination between them.
What you actually mean is that trans minors have additional needs for puberty blockers, which are supposedly dire enough that the horrific side-effects of using those meds on the long term can be overlooked. Well, that is something which needs to be proven, not just asserted, and so far, it hasn't been demonstrated.
The evidence is well documented from prisons
Very telling that you had to switch from the topic we were discussing - toilets - to an entirely unrelated one - prisons. That is, of course, because there's indeed zero evidence that trans women are at particular risk in men's toilets.
it does not necessarily follow that evidence existing persuades law makers particularly if they are incentivised not to
The law makers' potential reaction is irrelevant when the evidence is not presented in the first case. I repeat: as far as I know, no evidence that trans women are at particular risk in men's toilets has ever been presented to law makers. I'm open to being proven wrong.
In any case, trans women being accepted in female prison estates has long been done so for their safety
And that shouldn't happen because women's prisons are just that: women's prisons - not some kind of alternate men's prisons for men who feel or may be particularly at risk in men's prisons. For example, you don't see gay men being transferred to women's prisons for their safety. You don't see gay men using women's toilets because "I don't feel safe in the men's". So why should an exception be made for trans women? Male-on-male violence is by definition a male problem, to be solved by males among themselves.
Anyone who would imagine trans women aren't at an increased risk of sexual assault in prisons particularly if they have physically transitioned is deluding themselves.
I never denied that, since we never discussed it. But again: that's a problem for males to solve among themselves. Moreover, anyone who would imagine that women aren't at an increased risk of sexual assault in toilets and prisons in the presence of trans women is also deluding themselves. It has already happened, both in toilets and prisons.
In short: subcategories of men feeling or being unsafe among other men is in no way a problem for women to solve by accepting to increase their own insecurity through accepting those subcategories of men in their spaces.