Are they purposefully answering the wrong question?

[RoamingToaster]

When searching about the recent horrible shooting in the USA I noticed a lot of media are bringing out articles saying that transgender people aren't more likely to be mass shooters and that the average shooter is a "cis man". I'd expect that to be the case given most men don't identify as trans and most violence is from males, but aren't they deliberately skewing things? Wouldn't a better comparison be to look at trans women vs "cis" women? I just think they'd never do that as although the numbers are small given that women make up about half the population, it's hard to explain why there have been more trans women committing shootings. They never say trans women are in line with male violence.

I wish media would really do a proper investigation into trans identified men vs women in regards violence and crime.

That's a great point. It's like when Yasmin Alibiah Brown said most rape is committed by "men men".

Yes, always purposefully missing the point. Transgender males retain male pattern offending. They are in no meaningful way different from other men when it comes to likelihood of violence. No, we're not saying "they're all predators!" But they are not magically safer to be around than other males.

Surely, if this was really understood, everyone would agree with everything the evil terves have been saying.

Another great thinker there!

Given trans people numbers are so minuscule in the population means that the conclusions relating to data can't be accurate due to statistical insignificance.

"Statistically insignificant" describes a result that lacks enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis; it does not mean the result is "unimportant" or "meaningless" in a practical sense, but rather that the observed difference or relationship could be due to random chance.

www.yahoo.com/news/articles/fact-check-fake-viral-chart-041015627.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIVxfqzi1xrHdxWNy85LEJn6GfODfihsrHfdGRKmjgYPx--4nYuEOdLaazaZEsJR_pOEj6LNCmPEmyTmE_tTl3brqKQljd7IkvwjZNTNgnwTmDcRaPI4FrsPbkR1GcplYChX71OVPHJRF914zBoYqog_sp83Rk43GY8yIm-C04Nr

I’m with Howsitgoin on this one. If anything, the current numbers suggest that transwomen are less likely to carry out a mass shooting than other men, and transmen much more likely to carry one out than other women, but the numbers are so tiny that drawing firm conclusions isn’t reasonable.

Ive always understood that there iis perhaps one actual study suggesting that transwomen retain a male pattern of offending, but that study is frankly leaned on much too hard on here. IIRC it’s from a few years ago as well, when the population identifying as trans was very different.

Thr incredibly frustrating aspect is that the research landscape is so compromised. Rrdsrch proposals that group people by sex first and only then look at other characteristics such as neurodivergence, transition history etc wouldn’t stand a chance, unless the language were tortured into excluding sex completely. I dnnt understand why people who’ve transitioned - or tbh academics - are so desperate to obscure and eliminate any useful information.

I’m with Howsitgoin on this one. If anything, the current numbers suggest that transwomen are less likely to carry out a mass shooting than other men, and transmen much more likely to carry one out than other women, but the numbers are so tiny that drawing firm conclusions isn’t reasonable.
Ive always understood that there iis perhaps one actual study suggesting that transwomen retain a male pattern of offending, but that study is frankly leaned on much too hard on here. IIRC it’s from a few years ago as well, when the population identifying as trans was very different.
Thr incredibly frustrating aspect is that the research landscape is so compromised. Rrdsrch proposals that group people by sex first and only then look at other characteristics such as neurodivergence, transition history etc wouldn’t stand a chance, unless the language were tortured into excluding sex completely. I dnnt understand why people who’ve transitioned - or tbh academics - are so desperate to obscure and eliminate any useful information.

You may find this data interesting:

"Transgender People, Crime and Prisons – Prevalence
While there is a consistent stream of media attention concerning trans people involved in crime, statistics show cisgender people commit crimes more regularly than trans people. The makeup of the England & Wales (E&W) prison population shows this:
The E & W cisgender population is 59.6 million – the cisgender prison population is 87,900 = 0.15% of people in E & W are in prison.
The E & W trans population is 262,000 – the trans prison population is 268 = 0.1% of trans people in E & W are in prison.
From this statistic, we learn that cisgender people commit crimes at a 50% higher rate than trans people.
Evidence from the research conducted by Olga Suhomlinova and Saoirse Caitlin O’Shea using official statistics dating from 2021 revealed that while 0.5% of the population identify as transgender or non-binary, they represented just 0.2% of the prison population.
Transgender People, Crime and Prisons – Trans Women & Trans Men
Another anomaly in the statistics is that while 96% of the cisgender prison population is male and 4% female, the trans prison population is 84% trans women and 16% trans men. The reasons likely include trans men suffering depression, anxiety, discrimination, unemployment issues, and, consequently, poverty. For safety reasons, trans men nearly always elect to be housed in the female estate. Likewise, as long as not convicted of any violent or threatening act against natal females, trans women should be housed according to the safety risk they face."

https://translucent.org.uk/transgender-people-crime-and-prisons/

It's important to note any prison data can be subjected to conflating variables not to mention easily misrepresented.

https://medium.com/@davidallsopp/bang-to-rights-d5eab85d9a2

Oh God that’s a mess - presumably a deliberate statistical joke? That’s using the 2021 census data on the trans population, which has been withdrawn as an official statistic because so obviously unreliable and overstating the population. It’s also bringing in sex when it feels like it, but throwing it out when it doesn’t. Why is it that transwomen apparently suffer so much less from any of the negative experiences that they propose as.’likely’ causing a higher rate of offending among transmen? Surely it would be neutral enough to bring up exogenous cross sex hormones as a possible factor in both groups, given the obsession with ‘hormonal sex’? Any comments on their shocking transphobia in saying that male people, even those who have transitioned long ago, who’ve raped or battered women shouldn’t be housed with female prisoners? No doubt they are absolutely fine with Lauren Jesus still being in a women’s prison because she only left a man with life changing injuries.

It is absolutely deliberate skewing of information to fit a narrative that somehow transwomen are a lower risk than men.

Oh God that’s a mess - presumably a deliberate statistical joke? That’s using the 2021 census data on the trans population, which has been withdrawn as an official statistic because so obviously unreliable and overstating the population.

Nevertheless the results were consistent with GP estimates & other countries.

www.theguardian.com/society/2023/nov/08/census-records-trans-population-in-england-and-wales-but-accuracy-is-doubted#:~:text=Critics%20of%20the%20ONS%20included,Sign%20up

It’s also bringing in sex when it feels like it, but throwing it out when it doesn’t. Why is it that transwomen apparently suffer so much less from any of the negative experiences that they propose as.’likely’ causing a higher rate of offending among transmen? Surely it would be neutral enough to bring up exogenous cross sex hormones as a possible factor in both groups, given the obsession with ‘hormonal sex’?

This quote?

"Another anomaly in the statistics is that while 96% of the cisgender prison population is male and 4% female, the trans prison population is 84% trans women and 16% trans men. The reasons likely include trans men suffering depression, anxiety, discrimination, unemployment issues, and, consequently, poverty. "

My reading is the point is the trans men rate his higher than the CIS female rate because they are likely to experience multiple negative risk factors. I don't think its suggesting trans women suffer from these factors less & certainly the data showing higher incarcerations bares that out.

Any comments on their shocking transphobia in saying that male people, even those who have transitioned long ago, who’ve raped or battered women shouldn’t be housed with female prisoners? No doubt they are absolutely fine with Lauren Jesus still being in a women’s prison because she only left a man with life changing injuries.

From the link:

"Likewise, as long as not convicted of any violent or threatening act against natal females, trans women should be housed according to the safety risk they face."

96% 4% vs 84% 16%
”I don't think its suggesting trans women suffer from these factors less”

It must be suggesting that trans identified men suffer these factors less than trans identified women if it wants to offer those factors as an explanation for the difference in percentages. Otherwise the factors would have equivalent effects on both groups of trans identified people and the factors would have no explanatory power for the change in proportions.

I wish the world would stop with this “cis” bollox.

Or it could be the testosterone they’re taking?

In the UK we have a problem with men suddenly self-identifying as trans after they've been charged with a crime (and strangely changing their first and LAST name before the court case).

Mass shooting are an American problem because of gun culture. I think where we see a lot of these trans organisations telling trans people that they are outsiders and that everyone is against them, it is clearly fuel for violence.

Mass shootings have typically been caused by outsider males, trans is another ideology that is particularly seductive to outsiders.

The E & W cisgender population is 59.6 million – the cisgender prison population is 87,900 = 0.15% of people in E & W are in prison.

The E & W trans population is 262,000 – the trans prison population is 268 = 0.1% of trans people in E & W are in prison.

From this statistic, we learn that cisgender people commit crimes at a 50% higher rate than trans people.

Evidence from the research conducted by Olga Suhomlinova and Saoirse Caitlin O’Shea using official statistics dating from 2021 revealed that while 0.5% of the population identify as transgender or non-binary, they represented just 0.2% of the prison population.

Transgender People, Crime and Prisons – Trans Women & Trans Men
Another anomaly in the statistics is that while 96% of the cisgender prison population is male and 4% female, the trans prison population is 84% trans women and 16% trans men.

It's absurd to lump all so-called 'cisgender' people together when there is such a discrepancy in the numbers of males and females in prison.

Of that 87,900 people in prison, only 3,516 are female and the remaining 84,384 are male. Assuming the number of males and females in the general population are equal, that means that about 0.28% of men are in prison, but only 0.01% of women.

Similarly for the trans prison population (assuming here that there are equal numbers of trans people of each sex).

Using your figures there are about 43 TIFs in prison and 225 TIMs. So respectively 0.03% of the TIF population is in prison and 0.17% of the TIM population.

This means that trans identifying females are about 3 times more likely than other females to be in prison. For males, the trans identifying population is less likely than other males to be in prison, but about 17 times more likely than females. The TIM offending rate is much closer to the male rate than the female rate.

Of course, as @PermanentTemporary pointed out, the trans population was grossly over-estimated in the census, which could mean that the criminal rate for trans identifying men is even closer to that of other men.