@POWNewcastleEastWallsend
"This all seems very light on evidence and correspondingly heavy on hypotheses."
The evidence is that demand has not decreased in the Irish Republic, Northern Ireland or Sweden. There have been reviews of the Nordic model laws in Ireland that show demand has not decreased. We have statistics from surveys in Sweden from 1996 and 2008 that show that the proportion of Swedish men who were active sex buyers increased.
We need to define 'demand'. Most people would say demand decreases if there are fewer paid-for sex acts. That could mean prostitutes having fewer clients, or it could mean that there are fewer prostitutes or clients.
What it should not mean is that there are as many paid-for sex acts but that the clients are paying less. It shouldn't mean that prostitutes are working for longer and having sex more often to get the same amount of money as before the change in law. There is evidence that this is what has happened in Norway after the Nordic model was introduced there.
Now we enter the realm of speculation. I wrote that people are unwilling to pay as much for something if it is difficult to buy. I didn't actually say that it is illegal to buy contraband cigarettes, but Microsoft Copilot says "Yes—it is illegal in the UK to buy, sell, or possess contraband cigarettes, and doing so can lead to serious consequences." Google Gemini says "While the primary legal focus and penalties in England are on the selling and supply of contraband cigarettes, it's important to understand that buying them also carries risks and can be considered illegal."
Now we all know that AI can say things that aren't true, just like newspapers, but buying contraband cigarettes does have penalties. Just like selling sex in Sweden has penalties. If a woman gets evicted from her flat and convicted of brothel-keeping because she shared it with another woman these are penalties that might not have been evident at the beginning. Penalties that most supporters of the Nordic model don't know anything about and don't want to know anything about.
Nicotine addiction is indeed one of the strongest addictions, comparable to heroin addiction. Smoking rates have dropped significantly in recent years, partly because of tax. Tax intended to discourage people from this dangerous activity. People may have beaten their nicotine addiction or they may have moved onto vapes.
That is why I am inclined not to believe the Star investigation. Do you really think that a prisoner is going to pay £1,000 for an ounce of tobacco? Where is he going to get £1,000 from? If they are allowed vapes in prison then that would only happen if they were a bit stupid. Which I suppose some of them are.
So I think my contraband cigarette analogy still holds. Another reason why men might not have wanted to spend as much money paying for sex is the 2008 financial crisis. The Nordic countries weren't hit as bad by this as others, but still people will have been spending less on non-necessities.
Norway adopted the Nordic model in 2009, so perhaps this is the reason why men started paying less there then. It looks as if there was a genuine drop in demand after 2008, it shows up in the Swedish surveys, but the proponents of the Nordic model can't claim credit for that because Denmark also had this drop in demand even though they haven't adopted the Nordic model.
Also, the 2017 survey shows an increase, as you would expect when the economy recovers from the financial crisis. The 2017 survey was limited and didn't show the proportion of Swedish men who are active sex buyers (or if it did I can't find it). It showed that the proportion of Swedish men who had paid for sex at sometime in their life was 10% (up from 7.5% in 2014) and the proportion of Swedish women who had been paid for sex at sometime in their life was 1.5% (up from 0.2% in 2014 and the highest it has ever been).