Germany: Not voting for women's rights...

[Delphin]

(evil thread title, I know :-) )

On Sunday, there are national (Bundestag) elections in Germany. I have been worrying and thinking about who to vote for for weeks.

My priorities were, in that order:

1. Women's rights: I didn't want to vote for a party that put the Self-ID law in its current form into the law book. That took Greens, Socialdemocrats and Liberals out of the race.
2. "Debt Brake" (constitutional brake on investions out of state debt). It needs to go, or at least heavily reformed, to get Germany out of the economic slump. That took the Christian Democrats out.
3. Defence and the Ukraine: More investions into the Army, and a realistic policy about Russia, more help for Ukraine.

I had decided on voting for the Christian Democrats for the first time in my life, despite #2, because of #1 and #3.
Then Munich and Riyadh happened.

I will be voting Greens, as they have the security policy plans that align most with my opinions. They also want to reform the debt brake, which needs to happen for the massive investments needed in defence and in infrastructure and industry policies.

For the first time in my life I have the feeling that this is indeed a single issue election. That we are at a point where we need to chance course internationally (and thus nationally), to preserve our society/societies in Europe. I was around for the 1980s Nachrüstungsdebatte (debate on more medium range missiles to be stationed in Germany), but it never felt this acute, even though I was a teen/twen then. I cannot in good conscience "punish" the Greens or Social Democrats for the SelfID law though withdrawing my vote, while Europe is in turmoil (well, the Social Democrats deserve to be punished for their Ukraine policy so far).

I feel like a traitor, although I know that a "punishment" vote won't make a difference as the law is already in power. It's now grassroots work to inform people about its problems and getting it reformed and partly rescinded (the part that basically defined sex out of German law books, and therefore changed all laws that concern women as a sex class). I am looking for a way to get involved (but as I am away from the big cities, there aren't many options in real life).

How do other German voters feel about this? (I know you're out there :-) ) .

@Angryexpat : "But it does strike me that the outcome of the war will ultimately be determined by American actions, not the German election. I also can’t see the Greens agreeing to any action that would increase nuclear weapons in Europe but maybe I’m mistaken?"

The German election will determine national defence politics etc. in the next years and also further development in Europe. We're actually at the point where we cannot hide anymore behind what the US will do (and then do the same, a la Scholz). Germany will have to create a plan that works, together with the other Europeans, because right now, Trump's plan seems to be to follow Putin's plan.
I am not sure about the Greens and nuclear armament, as well, but if we could agree about the French and the British creating a nuclear umbrella and other nations chipping in (€€€), that might be a start (it was new to me that the French had actually proposed something like this earlier).

@Delphin
I don’t disagree on Germany having to craft a more independent defense policy but to my mind, the most credible parties for this do not tend to be on the Left.

Higher defense spending means less money for social programmes, NGOs (‘Demokratiefoerderung’ - something else the SPD has committed to) and refugee and asylum expenditure. Where is the money going to come from?

My guess is we are going to see a heavy reform of the Schuldenbremse, if not an abolition. The funds needed for the renovation of Germany won't be possible to be filled by taxing the middle class.

Das Wort zum Sonntag :-) :

Viel Glück

First vote: Die Partei
Second vote: BSW

Yes, I've had it up to here with the established parties. I was SPD/Green for years.

Okay, not a surprise. Except maybe the Linke result. FDP teetering on the edge of 5% (hopefully falling backwards).

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2025-02/bundestagswahl-2025-wahlergebnisse-wahlkreise-live
Results, updated continually.

Where are you checking the results @Delphin? I'm on the Spiegel site but there must be something better.

Tagesschau has Dimap predictions.

Watching ARD. Online, as my teenager has turfed me out of the living room/kitchen to cook and eat with some friends :-).

I like how TAZ uses the brown colour for AfD instead of blue, like the others. I've actually been fed up about AfD commandeering blue as their colour for a while, it looks way too innocent, which is probably intentional.
And recently election posters of CDU and AfD almost had the same colouring in a weird turquoise, just a shade different, that was incredibly weird.
https://taz.de/Alles-zur-Bundestagswahl/!6071029/

Sounds like it went as expected

How do you feel about the results op?

Not the OP but from checking election programs, CDU, BSW (and AfD) said they would repeal Self-ID. Let's see whether BSW make it over the 5% minimum. If there is a CDU/SPD coalition, I'm not sure they can get it done.

As unfortunately that's not the only problem in Germany right now, I hope Merz won't sell us out like Musk. We can probably expect some rollback with regard to environmental regulations, also with regards to new buildings. While some regulations are very detailed, compared to our neighbour countries, others will come to bite them. Less insulation and renewables will mean higher energy costs and noise problems, for example.

Also the same discussion as in the UK is happening, with regards of building on green land or higher density in unused city spaces - with the resulting stress on social and technical infrastructure.

In fact we have a lot of potential building sites in some shrinking cities - such as in Eastern Germany and some rural areas, which wasn't green land before. But that's not the areas people are moving to. This is a huge problem I'd like to se addressed better, without destroying green fields.

Another topic with regard to women's rights is how the Conservatives can square their values with providing more places in preschools / kindergarden and more help to families, so that both parents can work.

That will be hellish Koalitionsverhandlungen.

Yes, I would not want to be in charge of liasing with other parties.

In my hometown, the AfD has a share of over 33%, I could scream. Especially today. 80 years ago today, my hometown was obliterated in an air raid, consequence of WW2 and the Nazi regime. Now over 33% voted for fascist. How can anyone be so effing stupid???

@Maerchentante

I haven't understood to this day why they don't forbid the AfD. Several relevant agencies have confirmed they are anti-democratic, extremist and undermining the state. This is not a whim of cancelling the opposition. Our laws, which btw were created with the help of the USA after WWII to avoid a repetion of what they just fought the war over, are meant to protect our state and certain rights.

It's not cancelling "free speech" to keep right-wing extremists away from our institutions. Free speech has limits if you want to resurrect the third Reich.

If that was a left-wing party, they'd have done it already.

That is what I don't get, either. The relevant authorities have pandered to the AfD for far too long.
And I concur with your statement, if that had been a party on the left, there would have been a "Parteiverbotsverfahren" by now.

I just checked my Landkreis and the CSU gets results like they used to decades ago, well over 50% in some places. AfD got just under 14% in my village. Only Stadt Wuerzburg has CSU in the 30s and it's mainly benefitting the Greens but it's a university town with a lot of students.

In my area the CDU is very strong, too, and there seems to have been a movement from SPD and Liberals to the AfD.
I think what fuelled it were not the least Social Democrat's and Green's "luxury beliefs" type of politics, not so much migration, but a neglect of people with lower incomes. I understand that the green transition is necessary in the long run, especially with a look to energy security, but the messaging often was too much talking down from a great height. There are several ways to reach that goal.

Another aspect is fixing the divergence between education and skills of people versus employer standards. It is very necessary to ensure people can keep learning. You can't leave a substantial amount of people behind because they don't have the skills you need and leave them unemployed. Much more effort should be made so that people can finish or upgrade their school education and learn skills for new jobs.
Currently it's also somewhat awkward for adults to return to an "Ausbildung" / apprenticeship compared to recent school graduates because they stand out so much. Instead it should be supported.

It went almost as expected. Although just now, BSW made the 5% threshold... eek which means that a CDU/SPD coalition might be a very close call, numerically.
Merz just said in the "Elefantenrunde" that his priority in the next weeks will be the unification of European government in light of the pull-out of the Americans. He also criticized the way Elon Musk intervened in the runup to the election and noted that Germany was in a vice between Russia and the US trying to influence national politics.

Though I might be in a minority here, I don’t think it’s either possible or even a good idea to ban the AfD. First, the Verfassungsschutz has said that there are extremist elements in the party, not that the party itself is extremist, which is an important qualifier. Second, how can you realistically ban a party that captures 19% of the vote share? How is this democratic?

I also struggle to see Alice Weidel, who is, by all accounts, an accomplished woman, as a would-be fascist dictator.

If you actually bother to read the programme - which I have done and which is why I’m not voting for them - the positions they embrace are libertarian-conservative with some odd illiberal elements, but not fascist. Not if you actually have a meaningful definition of fascism that includes a particular way to order economy and society, a charismatic leader and willingness to use political violence and to expand the country’s territory by conquest.

"the positions they embrace are libertarian-conservative with some odd illiberal elements, "

That are the traces from their founding years. At their founding in 2013, they wanted to be a libertarian-conservative alternative to the CDU. I didn't agree with their polititics back then, but thought it would be an interesting addition to the parties right of centre. But the extremer fringes soon took over and got rid of most of the founding members.

If the extremist elements have completely taken over, why does the party programme look like it does?

E.g. on national identity they say: ‘we are open to the world but we want to retain our German identity’. I struggle to see how that is an extremist statement. Could easily be endorsed by a middle-of-the-road CDU voter.

But I don’t want to derail the thread, keen to see what the coalition negotiations will look like.

Anyone looking for final results without forecasts, as on the media pages, this is the official site of the "Bundeswahlleiterin"; the person ultimately responsible for the elections - a government position.

https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

The mainpage states:
"Die Auszählung der Stimmen beginnt nach Ende der Wahlhandlung um 18:00 Uhr. Veröffentlicht werden die Ergebnisse vollständig ausgezählter Wahlkreise sowie die kumulierten Ergebnisse auf Bundes- und Landesebene. Die Bundeswahlleiterin veröffentlicht keine Prognosen und hochgerechneten Ergebnisse.
Bis zur vollständigen Auszählung können die Ergebnisse im Bundesgebiet und in den Ländern erheblich abweichen.
Voraussichtlich in den frühen Morgenstunden des 24. Februars 2025 wird die Bundeswahlleiterin das vorläufige Wahlergebnis bekannt geben und die vorläufige Sitzverteilung und die vorläufig Gewählten veröffentlichen."

=> These are the counted votes, no forecasts. Only districts which have concluded counting are listed, and the cumulative results on country and national levels. The final result is expected for early monday morning.