This goes potentially three ways:
- the Supreme court rule in favour of women,
- the Supreme court rule in favour of men who say they are women and this blows up in Labour's face as Pandora Box is opened and this is spelt out in all its glory leading to this rumbling on for years, though Labour are likely to do their best attempt at burying it (without much success and giving ENORMOUS political capital to the right) or
- the Supreme court rule that this must go back to Parliament. In which case, it blows up in Labour's face with them forced to take on the subject head first and there be a huge public debate on the matter.
Let me make this clear. We have hit a point where there is no winning scenario for TRAs here - not in the long run. The only scenario that works for Labour, is the court ruling in favour of women.
Don't underestimate just how much the political landscape has changed in the last month. It has. Massively.
If it is thrown back to parliament it puts Labour in a position they DO NOT want to be in at this political moment.
It means they will SOLELY be responsible for the legislation that is needed to replace it. They can't look to deflect or shove the blame elsewhere.
They will NOT want such huge focus an attention on the concept of womanhood, because a) if they try to shaft women there will be a whole pile of people who will be on the case who are very much paying attention to the whole subject, for their own political reasons, not necessarily just in this country - theres an orange guy who is going to flog this to death for his own domestic advantage in his own gun touting country and b) if they are seen to shaft transwomen they will get a back lash there with the ranks of their own supporters. Its Lose / Lose for Labour cos they've tried to do their best to avoid the subject but this would force them into a situation where they can't.
It is now a focal point issue that isn't actually just about women's rights.
It will put Labour in an even worse bide for future strategy than the Democrats in the US, because they are the incumbent government and Labour's relationship with the incoming US admistration isn't great. It will be used. The Democrats, can to an extent, regroup and work this out behind closed doors for now but this becoming an issue here, gives political capital to Republicans in the US. Throwing this back to parliament wouldn't allow Labour to hide under a rock about it and would put them on the front line of a Republican/Democrat flash point - they will be effectively a political proxy point for the ongoing US culture war. That is not where you will want your government to be. There's not a chance Elon Musk will keep his gob shut if it goes back to parliament because its a matter of personal emotional investiment and political self interest.
Within Labour it could lead to a significant amount of infighting - not because Labour MPs suddenly have worked out what a woman is, but because they will start to realise JUST how toxic that bill is - especially if they don't get it right. As I say theres a queue forming to try and take out the UK's participation in the ECHR, never mind whats going on in the US.
I note at this point, you also have Wes Streeting who has put himself into a position of acknowledging what a woman is with the Darlington nurses. Thats kinda awkward - it puts him potentially on a direct collision course with Starmer if Starmer intends a terrible fudge throwing women under the bus in the process. This isn't an insignificant flash point. Its been said before that Streeting has political ambitions.
If there's infighting, this could drag the issue out over the course of some time during this parliament. Thus overshadowing a whole pile of other important stuff too. Its your Weapons Grade Dead Cat Event. Its got potential Brexit Levels of Internal Strife written all over this.
The potential fall out also could take them out of government if they are not very careful. Their election victory, is a lot more wafer thin than the number of seats they have, reflects. The numbers just are NOT there for them to cope with a backlash - typically a sitting government rarely is able to match seats at reelection as it is. If thrown back to Parliament and Labour don't win reelection, if Labour screw the pooch, this will be one of those areas that gets looked at rapidly by the next government. Cos over The Pond.
Honestly, this is something Labour won't want to touch with a barge poll if they can help it in anyway. Look whats ALREADY happened to the SNP over this. (And arguably the Greens to a lesser extent. And the LD aren't exactly, all friends over the subject).
Also noting timings on this:
This ruling isn't going to come until 'the Spring'. So thats likely March at the earliest. Then you are into the Easter recess anyway. Usually it takes a while for a bill to be scheduled time in parliament, then read, then passed. This can be done very quickly if urgent but how urgent would this be classified? - especially in view of potential infighting. So the EARLIEST possible time this would land in Parliament's lap, if it goes that way, its liable to be early summer but its probably going to be later than that, and it wouldn't surprise me if it get shunted back to next Autumn as a reasonable guestimation. If they prioritise it. Why is that significant? Well there's a Canadian Election thats going to be held sometime between now and October 2025... Again, this isn't a subject thats going away any time soon. This issue is going to flare up somewhat running into that - cos Trump and Musk will see the Canadian Election as another opportunity... Otherwise this has the potential to rumble on for years, with the public getting more and more fed up with attention on this and not other issues and the sheer abursity of the conversation in the first place.
To summarise: If it doesn't go the way of women, this will turn into a ongoing clusterfuck for Labour because they tried to dodge the subject and kick the can down the road so they didn't have to actually deal with it like they should.
The Dems are going to struggle to dissavow themselves with this and Trump will make changes to make it harder to get back in power.
There are few possible moves left to make here. We've definitely reached something of tipping point, where its all going to start unravelling one way or another imo. Its just a question of how, how far and how quickly.
What's that phrase again 'Wrong side of history'? Sadly if you are the wrong side of material reality, it always eventually catches up with you. You can only sustain a lie, any lie, for so long.