Canadian general elections due within the year - anybody know how they're likely to go?

[Gasp0deTheW0nderD0g]

I've put this in the FWR topic as I mostly hear about Canada these days because of jawdropping cases like Yaniv vs the waxers, Amy Hamm's fitness to practice hearings (still ongoing?), Stefonknee Wolscht, and this vile case. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-island-university-fetish-student-professor-fired-1.4400306

As I see there is a general election due in Canada by next October at the latest, I wondered if anyone could comment on who's likely to win? Will Trudeau be out on his ear? What might happen if he does lose?

TIA.

I read after the US elections that in every single general election around the globe this year, the incumbent government / leader has been voted out.

Good, seeing how the world was going to hell over the last few years. We might get lucky and see a meaningful change this time around

People are calling for a snap election. Given Trudeau’s unpopularity at the moment, it would be a shoe-in for Pierre Polievre and the Conservatives right now.

There were rumblings that he should step down to get a new leader in situ for October 2025 but I don’t think there’s enough time left for that new leader to show their worth.

OP Amy Hamm's still waiting for a decision although all the witness-y bits were, eventually, finished ages ago.

Last week an average of opinion polls put the Conservatives (Poilievre) on 41.8% and the Liberals (Trudeau) on 23%.

Let’s hope they follow the trend of incumbents being voted out.

Thanks, from a 10 second Google that's what it seemed to me. Poor woman.

So is Trudeau doing a Biden and clinging on so long that his successor stands no chance of differentiating himself/herself and changing policy to something that might win votes? Oh dear.

It really does feel at the moment that it doesn't matter much what the challengers stand for, the main thing is that they're different. Policy of desperation.

Conservatives (Poilievre) have been ahead in the polls since late 2022. Best to think of the Liberals as reaching our Tories level of unpopularity. So the Liberals are going to lose just a matter of when.

Poilievre was slow and wary of coming put on gender issues for a while, but has shifted in the last year or so. The Conservative party in general is very much aware and is demanding action.

General info on the position in Canada.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-conservative-leader-pierre-poilievre-says-he-supports-spaces-for/

It will require action at the Province level to change things in Canada as well as Federal level.

After the Conservatives win the big change will be the government power used to crack down on truth telling will reduce. We can expect more law suits to start happening and whistle blowers to speak up more. There are going to be some absolute horrors exposed in Canada I imagine.

The Canadian election coming later may benefit from the exposure of gender medical experiments on kids in the US which is likely to start happening a lot in 2025 as court cases are heard and Trump gains power.

I don't think anyone knows what Trudeau is thinking, including his own MPs.

I'm not sure if a new leader would be able to turn it around in any case though. In Canada, the example people think of with this is Brian Mulroney's Conservatives. They had initially won, in 1984, in one of the strongest election results in Canadian history.

By 1993 he had become hugely unpopular, and left in time for a new leader, Kim Campbell, to be put in place.

It made no difference though. The Conservatives lost and were reduced to two MPs in the house, which was completely unprecedented. Campbell resigned.

People who might possibly replace Trudeau as leader could well be thinking of that.

An October election could cause chaos in Alberta as the municipal elections could be on the same day. In remote locations this means a fight for polling places. Locally to me the schools refuse to let elections use their gyms and alternative venues are few and far between. And some spaces are so small that sharing would not be an option.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/crime/triple-murder-in-brossard-motive-remains-unknown-prosecutor-tells-jury

I saw this article on X the other day. They express concern about shocking people by having to refer to this monster in court as a man because he was 'living as a man' when he murdered his wife and children. And then magically discovered his inner female identity after committing the murders. How can people in Canada read stuff like this and not be furious?

That is grotesque. That poor woman, I hate to think what her last moments were like, and her children.

No doubt he's playing the trans card for sympathy, a mental health defence, perhaps blacken the name of his victim (she didn't understand/laughed at/belittled me) and with an eye on what prison he'll be sent to.

The scandal about to break in Canada will be a sight to behold.

Watch others get increasingly nervous when it does.

i don't know anyone who isn't sick of the liberals and their liberal policies.
so tarnished is the liberal name that a provincial party (known as bc liberal) not affiliated to the federal party changed it's name (to bc united). but the disassociation was so late in the game they pulled all their candidates to avoid loosing party status at provincial elections last month.
not sure if the link will explain the drama that was the bc provincial election but it was a clear annoyance with "liberal" anything.
B.C.’s election sits on a knife edge with several races too close to call | Globalnews.ca

as for justin trudeau his ego won't let him quit.
although his popularity is at an all time low within the country and within his party. his party is so unpopular anyone who would run this time around is a sure loser and i can't see mark carney wanting to be associated with losers or any of the other potential candidates (cristy clark, krista freeland and a couple others.)
don't get me started on krista freeland, if you want to hear someone who speaks in the most condescending manner and shows contempt for anyone other than justin feel free to google her speaking on any topic (she swoons and looks like a love struck pre teen any time she is standing next to jt).

i'm hoping pierre poilievre and his party can pull this off.

quebec will remain a bloq quebecois stronghold.
ontario is the big question mark.
i expect all the prairie provinces to go blue.

Fingers crossed!

So many politicians around the world from Centrist or Centre-Left parties treat their electorate in this high-handed and condescending way and I don’t understand why they expect voters to respond positively to this behaviour 🤷‍♀️

Poilievre will be horrible for women in Canada. I dread for my nieces growing up there, as have a sister there. He will restrict their healthcare and prioritize men over them. He is a little dictator. He doesn't believe in protections for women, and will likely shut down any investigation into the missing and murdered Indigenous women as well.

What kind of healthcare do you think he will take away from your nieces? He's said nothing like that.

The report from the inquiry is already completed. Do you imagine he is going to go around to local police forces and tell them to stop investigating cases? Do you have some reason to think he'd do that?

Abortion care and likely to take away the pill as well or reverse it so it costs again.

He will disband the commission on MMIW, and likely will stop upgrading water sources to reservations with boil water advisories, impacting women the most because who is most likely in a household to be in charge of cooking and cleaning and getting water?

It'll be climate denial again, drill baby drill, which impacts women negatively more than men.

I remember Harper very well. Pierre is his little creature.

They'll likely throw out any DEI iniatives that promote women's equality at schools and in the work place. They certaintly don't think we deserve equal pay for equal work!

Goodbye to nofault divorce!

The Conservatives are pro-men at every angle. They'll distract with some anti-trans legislation while stripping women of their rights at the same time.

This stuff is crazy.

Seriously, no one is talking about changing the rules around divorce, or taking away the pill.

And the final report for the MAMW inquiry is already finished. Five years ago.

Are you reading this stuff somewhere?

I personally pay attention to what the IDU is all about, because Pierre takes his cues from Harper. You do you.

Just a reminder the conservatives blocked any attempt to include contraceptive care in foreign aid packages when they were in power.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/harper-governments-aid-plan-omits-birth-control/article_7d5896d0-987e-5dc3-97a6-bc6056fa2228.html

It's just one branch on the tree of their anti-woman platform.

Pierre will be no different.

that's the good thing about canadian politics we are each free to vote. you can choose to vote for someone local that you really like as a person regardless of the party they represent or vote for a particular party based on their platform.
i had hope when justin first joined politics as a fresh new politician. but he's outworn his welcome.
i'm sure there are people worried about the conservative platform and due to this many will vote for the ndp.
but jt can't leave soon enough, worried about your family well jt just offered to give away money to every canadian who earned less than 150K ($250 CAD "free" in january). this money is being borrowed from your neice and your neices generation will be paying it back with interest. a pathetic attempt to buy votes.

If 250+ interest is the price the pay for freedom, I have no issue with it. Certainly my sister doesn't feel as you do, and she is very financially minded! She is worried about her children growing up and coming of age under a conservative gov.

I find trudeau mostly effective and I agree with most of what he does, but it would be nice to have some fresh blood.