Trans regret rate could be 33%

[Ingenieur]

Here's an interesting article from Genspect exploring the data around regret rates of transition, desistance etc. Much of it is about the significance of poor follow-up rates in studies, which are dire.

https://genspect.org/trans-regret-is-possibly-33/

There are so many well made points in that article. Excellent overview, thank you for sharing that.

Thank you for the link to this article [proper science]. Well worth reading and lots of other useful links within it.

By the by, this is a fairly small study of 48 trans-identifying patients but:

'3.2.4. Undesired Treatment Outcomes (Stopping Hormones, Abnormal Blood Test Results, Side Effects and Complications)

Nine patients had stopped hormone therapy; one related to practice policy because they had not attended any GIC follow-up (the patient has restarted since the audit). Thus, eight patients had stopped hormones voluntarily (20% stopping rate; six trans men, two trans women). These patients had been on treatment for a mean of five years (range 17 months-10 years). Four transmen had comments in the records that related to a change in gender identity or detransitioning (4/41, 9.8%): “Would like to gradually detransition”; “No longer wish to live your life as a male”; “Has decided to detransition…. Feels comfortable having decided to dress and appear more feminine; “Feels it was a mistake, identifying as non-binary now”. None of these patients had undergone any gender related surgery. They had presented at a mean of 18 years of age, taken testosterone for a mean of 18 months, and currently presented as female (three) or non-binary (one).

The other four patients who had stopped hormones continued to present as trans (two women, two men): one, who had experienced orchidectomy, had a record of regret (“No hormonal treatment currently, regrets gender reassignment”); one had a medical reason noted for stopping (“problems with PV bleeding despite androgen”); and two had no specific reason for stopping in their record, but it was documented that they had stopped.

In 15 cases (37%) of patients on hormones, levels had been found to be out of target range at one or more point during the course of therapy. Twelve trans men had transiently raised testosterone; one with a level of 120 nmol/L (over four-fold advised peak levels) who now has injections at the surgery instead of self administering. Three trans women had transiently raised estradiol levels above target range (highest, 1151 pmol/L). Transient polycythaemia (HCT > 0.5 L/L) was found in 9 trans men (highest haematocrit 0.57 L/L).

Five trans men (16%) had documented complications: severe acne attributed to testosterone by dermatologist (two); unwanted male pattern balding (one), vaginal bleeding (one); and vaginal atrophy requiring topical oestrogen (one). Two trans women (20%) had documented complications: severe vaginal wound infections (one resulting in sepsis requiring admission and intravenous antibiotics, the other in vaginal stenosis).'

...
'In terms of detransition rates, one meta-analysis reports rates of less than one percent 50] but the primary studies are inherently flawed by loss to follow up. A recent UK GIC case note review found a detransition rate of 6.9% 51]. Thus, the detransition rate found in this population is novel and questions may be raised about the phenomenon of overdiagnosis, overtreatment, or iatrogenic harm as found in other medical fields.'

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8775415/

Thanks @ArabellaScott , that's some great context even as a by-the-by!

Thank you@ArabellaScott for this really interesting link.

This is the reason they are arguing for self id.

It's obvious that some know deep down that the permanent changes aren't welcome or healthy.

So much easier to stop dressing up than irreversible medical changes

Here's a large study from Finland:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39160479/

' Results: Of the 1,359 subjects who had undergone hormonal GR in Finland from 1996 to 2019, 7.9% discontinued their established hormonal treatment during an average follow-up of 8.5 years. The risk for discontinuing hormonal GR was greater among later cohorts. The hazard ratio was 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.1-6.1) among those who had accessed gender identity services from 2013 to 2019 compared with those who had come to contact from 1996 to 2005. Discontinuing also appeared to be emerging earlier among those who had entered the process in later years.
Conclusions: The risk of discontinuing established medical GR has increased alongside the increase in the number of patients seeking and proceeding to medical GR. The threshold to initiate medical GR may have lowered, resulting in a greater risk of unbalanced treatment decisions.'

Full paper: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11334601/

Notwithstanding the studies linked in this thread, there is surprisingly little research into gender transition given that there ought to be 30+ years of data from some countries. Whilst it is clearly challenging to design a robust study I would have expect more and better quality research than seems to exist. It is almost as if those specialists in the field are either not interested or more likely know that the conclusions would not support their arguments/beliefs.

Let us not forget this study:

In the longitudinal cohort (n = 7885, 47.1% in the age group 20–24 years; 37.7% male), only 36.4% still had a confirmed F64 diagnosis after five years and diagnosis persistence was below 50% in all age groups (range 27.3% [15–19-year-old females] to 49.7% [20–24-year-old males]).

https://www.aerzteblatt.de/int/archive/article/239563

'In 72.4% of the persons with an F64 diagnosis in 2022 (n = 24 624), at least one additional psychiatric diagnosis was coded (males: 67.3%; females: 75.6%). The most common diagnoses were depressive disorders (males: 49.3%, females: 57.5%), anxiety disorders (23.5%/34.0%), emotionally unstable personality disorder of the borderline type (12.1%/17.6%), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorders (12.7%/12.6%), and post-traumatic stress disorders (9.9%/13.6%)..'

('F64' = “gender identity disorders“)