"More people regret Harry Potter tattoos than trans surgeries"

[SpicyMoth]

Does anyone have links to any stats or studies that back this claim up (or preferably refute it)?

I'm assuming not, but am currently in a debate with a "friend" who is adamant that this is the case (and has history of being insufferable about this topic), but is unsurprisingly not linking any actual evidence whatsoever.

So far I've pointed out that the amount of trans people vs the amount of people who have HP tattoos is too big of a number discrepancy to even really be a valid comparison.
Also that the vast majority of trans people do not in fact even get surgeries, and of those who do it then depends of whether they're mild (such as FFS) or drastic (such as vaginoplasty/phalloplasty), in which case the complication rates for those are MASSIVE, and the likelihood of someone going through with those surgeries then turning around and admitting they've made a mistake will be incredibly low regardless of whether they regret it or not.

I linked to studies which back my claims up, no response of yet from him... Can't help but wonder why...

Ik this is silly and petty but he has form for this and I'm absolutely sick of "sitting down and shutting up" about it.

I dont have data. Does the person youre arguing with?

Tattoos get done on impulse, a lot. Genital surgery and breast surgery does tend to have a longer run-up. So it makes sense to me that regret rates would be much lower.

The fact in particular that regret rates for bilateral mastectomy are so low should make me feel reassured, but I don't feel positive about it for what it says about us as a society, any more than I feel great about breast augmentation and botox being as common as colds.

Past regret rates are, however, based on a past cohort. What the current cohort of young adults will feel a little later on, and in particular what they will call it (probably not 'regret') remains to be seen.

I can suggest a reason why. He knows you're right but doesn't have the integrity to admit it. I hope he is not a close friend. He's just not that bright, is he. Anybody who would believe such a claim is not big on thinking.
A tattoo is also much easier and safer to remove than it is to reverse surgical changes, so it stands to reason people regret cosmetic surgery (of all kinds) more than they regret tattoos.

Ask him where his data comes from. Sounds like a load of wank to me.

He made the claim, he can provide the evidence. If he can't, he is indeed talking a load of wank and I would tell him so.

I can’t begin to imagine how you would gather a useful data set of people regretting Harry Potter tattoos that would withstand statistical analysis.

Apart from asking him to prove his statement I'm sitting here wondering what kind of HP tattoos there are. Is it fancy HP lettering, or a white owl, or a broomstick (quiddich) or that elf? Or is it JKR's face? So many questions... could you ask your friend please OP?

Well numbers are irrelevant, statically only %s count.

So he is essentially saying that more
people who have HP tattoos regret them than more people who have transitioned regret it?

However even when you look at statistics there are always conditions - are we talking transitions that include surgery? Medications? Or we are including someone who dressed a bit masc and used they pronouns for a year before deciding they were just a lesbian but didn’t regret it because “no harm done” etc.

Context is everything but also, don’t debate or argue with someone who relates the gender debate to JK Rowling and Harry Potter. Honestly don’t waste your time.
You’re allowed to have your own opinion on gender ideology, it doesn’t make you a bigot, despite the best intentions to label us that

Children can't consent to Harry Potter tattoos.

A quick google seems to suggest this is based on a general regret rate for tattoos - 12%, versus the highly dubious figure of regret for 'transition' surgeries.

Lots of people have terrible Potter tattoos; lots of people realise lots of people share their SuPeR mEaNiNgFuL Potter tattoo; apparently some people don’t realise that tattoos are permanent (you know, for “Always”); people change a lot between 18 & 38/48/58 whatever; coverup work is common; tattoos are cheap; Potter tattoos are superabundant - at one point they were the most common design IIRC; people who thought getting a dark mark was super edgy (seriously WTF) reconsider after having kids; & some people think they should have “grown out” of Potter at an arbitrary age. So it wouldn’t be surprising; & doubtless some buckeejits are mopping & mowing about “OMG Rowling so transphobic”.

There are no reliable stats on regret for GRS. There are ones wafted about but the numbers are tiny; people are lost; & the duration of follow-up is insufficient.

I don't have a source for that tattoo regret rate, btw, just going by where this pulled out of someone's ass claim has come from.

Yes.

I don't have the stats but would guess they are based on a flat number rather than a percentage or proportion.

The number of people who have SRS is pretty small annually (dependent on what is classed as SRS ie mastectomy facial feminisation surgery, hysterectomy, orchiectomy, phalloplasty.......

The number of people getting a Harry Potter tattoo will be significantly higher.

So let's say

10,000 HP tattoos a year. 1% is 100 people
1000 SRS. 1% is 10 people

It's hard to pin down stats as they are all a little oblique for example one report I found says in 2022 there were 335 gender transformation surgeries in the U.K, but what does gender transformation surgery mean?

I don't know how you'd even start to gather the data tbh.
You'd have to do % to make a fair comparison.

Are we comparing HP tattoos to people who have had surgery of some kind? Or socially transitioned as well.

And I think the reason for the regret is relevant. Do they regret the tattoo because of Queen JKRs opinions? Did they outgrow the franchise? Was it a badly done tattoo?

I've seen this touted across various sites like reddit and tumblr, it's something that the (more batshit side of the) HP fandom like to claim, though I'm not sure I've ever seen it made as a serious claim - as if they had stats - and more as a defiant anti-JKR stance, as if this somehow proved something.

Which of course it doesn't as, as has been pointed out, there are no meaningful stats and a huge discrepancy in the numbers of people getting both which makes it impossible to compare.

But even if the data could be collected, and it turned out that every single person who ever got a HP tattoo now hated it, while only 1% of transitioners regretted it... there is a lot of difference between being a bit embarrassed you have a dark mark inked on your forearm and regretting having your penis chopped off. The type of regret and the depth of it is as equally incomparable as the numbers, as is the amount of damage done to someone's body and the reversibility.

And you have to be 18 or over to get a HP tattoo. Girls as young as 12 are having mastectomies.

It really is just something stupid that people embarrassingly hard of thinking say, and your friend should be embarrassed to be parroting it.

Tysm everyone!
Even though there seems to be very little in terms of stats or studies on regret itself there is however plenty on complications of SRS (specifically bottom) and the exceedingly low number of trans people who actually go on to have surgeries (a measly 16%!), he seems to have backed down entirely.

I imagine he's either realised he won't change my mind, that I've looked intot this in a lot more detail than he has over many years, or is royally embarrassed that he had nothing to cite.

I wouldn't say he is a close friend, but he's something who I talk to somewhat often - He also has form for being very "TWAW".

We've had a "debate" before on this topic before where he's "listened" (aka not listened at all) to what I had to say re; changing rooms, sports and toilets and sharing my own very personal experiences of things that have happened to me and he's totally ignored everything I've had to say only to go on about men's feelings and inclusivity, and small percentage this, and small percentage that, to the point where I just refused to engage whenever this topic came up afterwards.
But as time's gone on he's become more and more militant and adamant that he's right.
He tries to say he's neutral but then acts and speaks in a way that is anything but.
So you can hopefully understand why I was so determined not to let this one slide - I'm at my wits end with it!

Oh, this was a joke circulating on twitter last week, it was not supposed to be taken as a serious stat by the OP.

As someone upthread pointed out, many more people get HP tattoos than transition, so in that sense it's likely to be true. Think also that the type of person likely to get a HP tattoo is also highly likely to be anti-JKR on the trans issue.

Denominators matter enormously, here.

Tiny percentages of large numbers deliver large numbers.

Large proportions of small numbers deliver small numbers while still being a substantial proportion of the total.

I think you would need three comparators before you could draw any conclusions:
trans surgery regret
regret of any/all tattoo
regret of HP-specific tattoo

Just say the tattoos you find in those packets of sweety cigarettes don’t count!!

So he's a blatant misogynist? Now there's a surprise.

I don't get this - isn't what you're looking at actually more that "more people SAY (aka ADMIT) they regret their HP tattoo than say/admit they regret their GRS?
You don't have to sign up to a lifetime identity change to have a tattoo. You don't have to take body altering drugs for a lifetime to have a tattoo. You don't have to stick a flag on one side of a very controversial political ideology either.
It's way easier to regret something petty and trivial - openly regretting an irreversible life choice is far more significant- especially given the ostracism and hate thrown at detransitioners by their former cult-buddies.
Which is why we have to support and protect detransitioners and why we have to protect more kids/teens/adults with MH problems from this pernicious ideology.

He sounds insufferable whatever the regret percentages are.

Surely the fact (highlighted by Hannah Barnes, by the judge in the Keira Bell review and by Dr Cass) that no reliable follow up data are collected on those young people prescribed puberty blockers mean that OBVIOUSLY we can’t give the stats for regret or detransitions.

No one can accurately rebut your friend’s rather silly claim because part of the problem with “trans healthcare” is the lack of information, evidence and clarity.

Good points here.
Can I add my not fully rounded thought that one person undergoing SRS (sex reassignment surgery?) might have multiple operations.

So say there were 300 SRS but performed on 100 people.10 people might regret their 30 surgeries but instead of this being recorded as 30 surgeries/300 = 10% regret rate

it might be recorded as

10 people expressing regret/300 surgeries= 10/300 , a much lower 3% regret rate

All figures are made up by me for illustrative purposes

I suppose people might have more than one HP tattoo also