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Feminism: Sex and gender discussions

Argument with son about trans stats

34 replies

molotovcupcakes · 16/11/2023 09:17

My son and I don’t usually talk about trans issues and I know he thinks I’m wrong about everything.
He said that the regret rate of transitioning is only 1% and cited this study that he googled - I’m sure it’s much higher,does anyone know any sources for this?
He also believes that the rate of suicide attempts of trans people is 40% and so transitioning is a net good- this is from TikTok.
Im quite shocked frankly at how many of these messages he has picked up and I wondered if anyone knew any sites with stats that refute this.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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lovelybouclecardi · 16/11/2023 09:22

statsforgender.org/

This is a great start. Evidence based stats.

Karensalright · 16/11/2023 09:29

Transgender trends web site

purplehairtomorrow · 16/11/2023 09:32

Afraid I don't have any studies to point you to but I would ask a few additional questions about the videos/experts he's watched on TT.

If the regret rate is less than 1%, how is that being quantified? Is that among people who've had a full surgical transition? Or among people who've had a social transition and (crucially) over what period of time? If you asked a socially transitioned 14 year old if they had regrets 6 months on, they're probably going to say no. See where they're up to 10 years later, it may well be a different story. Are there long term studies?

Also as for the 40%, I'd really like to ask if those intense suicidal feelings or poor mental health are resolved by physical or social transition? Have there been any long term studies that show the link between not living in your preferred gender and mental health? So once you DO live in your preferred gender are your MH problems instantly cured? Tapered off any medications etc? Or is it that the MH issues were always there and continue to be, despite outward gender expression.

I'm not a scientist but when I hear stats like that (on either side of the discussion!), I want to know the working out and how they arrived at that number.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 16/11/2023 10:06

He also believes that the rate of suicide attempts of trans people is 40% and so transitioning is a net good- this is from TikTok.

This isn't reliable data. It is based on self reported, non randomly sampled surveys where there isn't a clear line between self harm and attempted suicide, often remembered decades later.

The other issue is that suicide attempts/completions actually increase after "transition" according to some studies.

https://www.transgendertrend.com/the-suicide-myth/

TomeTome · 16/11/2023 10:11

Realistically neither of you “know the stats” and both of you are relying on randoms on the internet to inform you and give you ammunition to “win” the discussion. I would suggest the conflict is really about something else and that you’d be better off finding out what that is.

nauticant · 16/11/2023 10:13

The 40% suicide rate is old, it might go back all the way to around 2008, it has been challenged since then, and has now been repackaged and relaunched at the same number, I think it's actually 41%, but it's now being presented as 41% of young trans people have contemplated suicide.

It would be interesting to see a comparable figure for how many young people with at least one significant mental health condition have contemplated suicide.

nauticant · 16/11/2023 10:15

Here's the recent relaunch:

https://www.thetrevorproject.org/survey-2023/

Prelapsarianhag · 16/11/2023 10:30

"Lies, damn lies and statistics".
Just allow your son to find his own way and develop his own philosopy of life.

molotovcupcakes · 16/11/2023 10:38

The statsforgender link is useful, thanks.
He got some information from stats on Google and it is difficult to argue when he sees Google as fair and balanced and not skewed by any bias.

I do agree with you Ereshkigalancleg that it isn’t reliable data but it is presented in a that looks ‘official’ to a 16 year old and it is hard to fight the mainstream narrative.

OP posts:
Nolongerlight · 16/11/2023 10:44

This is a great opportunity to explore with him how we understand data and statistics. More people should know how to do this.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 16/11/2023 10:45

I do agree with you Ereshkigalancleg that it isn’t reliable data but it is presented in a that looks ‘official’ to a 16 year old and it is hard to fight the mainstream narrative.

I quite agree and that's why it's got so much traction on social media/in the media.

Helleofabore · 16/11/2023 10:50

Here are some Molotovcupcakes. The 1% is misinformation. Not only that, I am not really sure when it was applicable. I suspect it was supposedly from prior to the exponential increase in young adolescent female transitioners. It is really going to be blown to smithereens in the coming years when this is finally studied.

Anyway, here are some studies. I will post over a couple of posts. Importantly, the studies are not those aimed at studying 'detransition' they are being picked up during studying other issues so people overlook them. But they are there and they are part of peer reviewed studies.

Doctor scrutiny on gender clinic reveals legal and safety fears

The Australian , Natasha Robinson, 17th February 2023

www.theaustralian.com.au/science/doctor-scrutiny-on-gender-clinic-reveals-legal-and-safety-fears/news-story/8af81768fde27884caf18fff345ab78a?amp&nk=251396453faa0730705a45251160583c-1676662448

(Plug the above link into archive dot ph)

Senior physicians at the NSW Children’s Hospital Westmead’s gender clinic have studied the physical and mental health of 79 patients in a rare academic study of the outcomes of children who presented with gender distress and gender dysphoria. The findings cast doubt on the scientific basis of the gender-affirming approach followed by the nation’s other children’s hospitals.

In an open access academic paper, CHW psychiatrists, endocrinologists and other physicians, and a senior medical ethics expert, called for a “much more nuanced and complex approach” as analysis revealed 88 per cent of children presenting at Westmead’s gender clinic had at least one co-morbid mental health condition, with more than 50 per cent diagnosed with behavioural disorders or autism. One in five children who consulted the clinic with gender-related distress later had these feelings resolved, and almost one in 10 with a formal diagnosis of gender dysphoria, some who had taken puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones, later discontinued transitioning.

And

The CHW doctors have raised concerns that “many unknowns remain” regarding the long-term effects of puberty blockers, which are described by the Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne as “reversible in their effects”. International evidence is in fact casting greater doubt on whether the effects of these medications are reversible. Endocrine reviews of the CHW patient cohort documented side-effects in 23 of the 49 young people prescribed puberty blockers, including low bone density, hot flushes, weight gain and anxiety. The CHW doctors raised concerns about long-term effects on patients’ sexual function in adulthood.

Within the 9 per cent cohort of patients with a diagnosis of gender dysphoria who had desisted – that is, discontinued the transgender pathway 4-9 years after consulting the gender clinic – three had undergone puberty suppression beginning at the average age of 12. Three had taken cross-sex hormones, one from as young as 15, but not prescribed by CHW. The effects of cross-sex hormones, including infertility, are irreversible.

This is the study

Distress: A Prospective Follow-Up Study

by Joseph Elkadi, Catherine Chudleigh, Ann M. Maguire, Geoffrey R. Ambler, Stephen Scher and Kasia Kozlowska

www.mdpi.com/2227-9067/10/2/314

This prospective case-cohort study examines the developmental pathway choices of 79 young people (13.25–23.75 years old; 33 biological males and 46 biological females) referred to a tertiary care hospital’s Department of Psychological Medicine (December 2013–November 2018, at ages 8.42–15.92 years) for diagnostic assessment for gender dysphoria (GD) and for potential gender-affirming medical interventions. All of the young people had attended a screening medical assessment (including puberty staging) by paediatricians. The Psychological Medicine assessment (individual and family) yielded a formal DSM-5 diagnosis of GD in 66 of the young people. Of the 13 not meeting DSM-5 criteria, two obtained a GD diagnosis at a later time. This yielded 68 young people (68/79; 86.1%) with formal diagnoses of GD who were potentially eligible for gender-affirming medical interventions and 11 young people (11/79; 13.9%) who were not. Follow-up took place between November 2022 and January 2023. Within the GD subgroup (n = 68) (with two lost to follow-up), six had desisted (desistance rate of 9.1%; 6/66), and 60 had persisted on a GD (transgender) pathway (persistence rate of 90.9%; 60/66). Within the cohort as a whole (with two lost to follow-up), the overall persistence rate was 77.9% (60/77), and overall desistance rate for gender-related distress was 22.1% (17/77). Ongoing mental health concerns were reported by 44/50 (88.0%), and educational/occupational outcomes varied widely. The study highlights the importance of careful screening, comprehensive biopsychosocial (including family) assessment, and holistic therapeutic support. Even in highly screened samples of children and adolescents seeking a GD diagnosis and gender-affirming medical care, outcome pathways follow a diverse range of possibilities.

Conclusions

The data from this study show that when young people with gender distress present to health services seeking medical interventions, they end up following a diverse range of developmental pathways. The availability of gender-affirming medical interventions for the treatment of gender dysphoria is a recent one, evolving from the work of clinicians in the Netherlands. Early studies have suggested that medical interventions were associated with positive outcomes. This early body of work consequently served as the foundation for subsequent treatment guidelines and became established in medical systems via streamlined assessment processes and treatment pathways. The concept of medical affirmation was embedded in the broader culture by media and internet channels.

Together, these processes gave young people with gender-related distress a clear message: “This is the best way to proceed,” and “The medical affirmation pathway will take away your gender dysphoria.” For many young people and their families, however, these messages favouring medical interventions, coupled with professionals’ affirmation of this pathway, potentially displaced their consideration of other options or other pathways.

The young people and families who presented to our service typically came to us with settled ideas concerning their prospective treatment pathways. In particular, based on what was known at the time, and given the severity of the young persons’ distress, they and their families considered medical treatment for gender dysphoria to be the single best option. In the last five years, however, the gender-affirming medical model has been questioned by both clinicians (who have highlighted the current lack of a solid evidence base and detransitioners (who have highlighted the potential for adverse outcomes). The current evidence suggests the need for a much more nuanced and complex approach. As research data pertaining to long-term outcomes continues to accumulate, “the best way to proceed” is likely to be seen as ranging over a much more diverse range of treatment options and pathways, with each supported by a stronger evidence base than is currently available.

Developmental Pathway Choices of Young People Presenting to a Gender Service with Gender Distress: A Prospective Follow-Up Study

This prospective case-cohort study examines the developmental pathway choices of 79 young people (13.25–23.75 years old; 33 biological males and 46 biological females) referred to a tertiary care hospital’s Department of Psychological Medicine (Decembe...

https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9067/10/2/314

heathspeedwell · 16/11/2023 10:50

Mermaids used to say on the front page of their website that the vast majority of kids who are confused about their gender desist as they get older. Around 95% of young people desist (although Mermaids now try to keep this inconvenient fact quiet).

But even among older people who have surgery (which is a tiny percentage of the total cohort of gender-questioning people) it seems likely that up to 30% change their minds.

This is backed up by the Swedish study, evidence from Dr Az Hakeem who ran a support group at the Tavistock for over a decade, and the evidence of an insurance company in the US that provides hormones for transitioners and reported that 30% of customers stop using them. (Hopefully someone will remember the specific company but it has been quoted on here before in more detail).

Az Hakeem has written a very interesting and readable book called Detrans which your son might enjoy.

Coyoacan · 16/11/2023 10:50

Most of transgender clinics never did any follow up or kept any statistics on their patients so there actually aren't any numbers for detransitioners. The lack of follow up and collection of data, even on the part of the Tavistock, means that there is still very little information about the experimental drugs ( puberty blockers, for example) that they use.

As for that miniscule study, the 40% refers to suicide ideation, not attempted suicides, fortunately enough.

Helleofabore · 16/11/2023 10:51

www.mdpi.com/2227-9032/10/1/121/htm

A few things stand out.
-the number of patients with underlying mental health issues. And how they are being completely let down by affirming only treatment.

-The number of visits before receiving hormones was 2.7 appointments.

-67 patients average age 27.8 years -range was 12- 54
-42 females, 22 males, four NB (3 f / 1 m)
-Female mean age is 18 years, male 23 years.
-Out of the 67, only 9 (13%) had NO mental health diagnosis. 10 (15%) had diagnosed ASD, 4 with ADHD (6%), 3 (4%) with OCD, 1 with Bipolar, 7 (10%) with a Personality Disor

The rate of detransition amongst those who had received at least hormones was 9.8%. This is in line with the European study below which showed a long term detransition rate of medicalised transitioners of males 8.8% and females 8.3%.

From this study

Nine patients had stopped hormone therapy; one related to practice policy because they had not attended any GIC follow-up (the patient has restarted since the audit). Thus, eight patients had stopped hormones voluntarily (20% stopping rate; six trans men, two trans women).

This is the other study with the figures 8.8% & 8.3%:

//www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5580378/

135 natal males (119 living in the female role, 12 in the male role, 4 did not report their current gender role) and 66 natal females (60 living in the male role, 5 in the female role, 1 did not report a current gender role)

So... 8.88% of males and 8.33% of the females (this does not include those who did not answer the question which if the answer was to detransition would make these figures higher). And in Figure 3. 22.2% of those who socially transitioned, detransitioned.

What is interesting to note is that there are now studies who have published averages of time to detransition. This varies but is usually around 7+ years ( I will go and find the study). It is only from NOW that we are going to be able to identify the detransition rate of the clearly seen 'bulge' of adolescent teenaged female patients who transitioned in that bulge.

Here is Dr Az Hazeem saying he had about 26% of his patients regretted transitioning.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12623643/Being-trans-non-binary-new-sub-culture-risk-raising-nation-chemically-castrated-children-Doctor-spent-12-years-working-vulnerable-teens-Tavistock-warns-gender-ideology.html

He said 26 per cent of his patients at the Tavistock and Portman regretted transitioning.

We risk raising nation of chemically castrated kids, says Tavistock Dr

EXCLUSIVE: Dr Az Hakeem (pictured) worked at the Tavistock and Portman Foundation Trust for 12 years and is the author of Detrans: When Transition Is Not The Solution.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12623643/Being-trans-non-binary-new-sub-culture-risk-raising-nation-chemically-castrated-children-Doctor-spent-12-years-working-vulnerable-teens-Tavistock-warns-gender-ideology.html

Helleofabore · 16/11/2023 10:53

Then there was this review of US Military health insurance records for transition persistence.

academic.oup.com/jcem/article-abstract/107/9/e3937/6572526?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false

”Continuation of Gender-affirming Hormones Among Transgender Adolescents and Adults”

Christina M Roberts,
David A Klein, Terry A Adirim,
Natasha A Schvey, Elizabeth Hisle-Gorman

22 April 2022

Results
The study sample included 627 transmasculine and 325 transfeminine individuals with an average age of 19.2 ± 5.3 years. The 4-year gender-affirming hormone continuation rate was 70.2% (95% CI, 63.9-76.5). Transfeminine individuals had a higher continuation rate than transmasculine individuals 81.0% (72.0%-90.0%) vs 64.4% (56.0%-72.8%). People who started hormones as minors had higher continuation rate than people who started as adults 74.4% (66.0%-82.8%) vs 64.4% (56.0%-72.8%). Continuation was not associated with household income or family member type. In Cox regression, both transmasculine gender identity (hazard ratio, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.50-3.86) and starting hormones as an adult (hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.14-2.52) were independently associated with increased discontinuation rates.

Note here the 'discontinuation rate'!

Age at initiation of gender-affirming hormones by sex assigned at birth.

Continuation of Gender-affirming Hormones Among Transgender Adolescents and Adults

AbstractIntroduction. Concerns about future regret and treatment discontinuation have led to restricted access to gender-affirming medical treatment for transge

https://academic.oup.com/jcem/article-abstract/107/9/e3937/6572526?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false

ginasevern · 16/11/2023 10:56

@TomeTome

"Realistically neither of you “know the stats” and both of you are relying on randoms on the internet to inform you and give you ammunition to “win” the discussion."

I would also add that it is a right of passage to hold different views to your parents. Every generation has to question and explore the status quo in order to bring something new to bring to the table. Without this we would be stuck in the dark ages. I would congratulate him for showing an interest rather than arguing the toss with him.

MargotBamborough · 16/11/2023 10:57

What's the context for this discussion?

To play devil's advocate here, let's say the regret rate is 1% and the suicide rate is 40%.

What does he think society needs to do as a consequence of this?

Helleofabore · 16/11/2023 10:58

This article is interesting and has links in it too.

‘Gender-Affirming Care Is Dangerous. I Know Because I Helped Pioneer It.’
https://www.thefp.com/p/gender-affirming-care-dangerous-finland-doctor

From Dr Riittakerttu Kaltiala, Finnish Psychiatrist who developed the treatment plans for Finnish Gender Clinics.

‘Gender-Affirming Care Is Dangerous. I Know Because I Helped Pioneer It.’

My country, and others, found there is no solid evidence supporting the medical transitioning of young people. Why aren’t American clinicians paying attention?

https://www.thefp.com/p/gender-affirming-care-dangerous-finland-doctor

sensationalsally · 16/11/2023 11:00

The simple response to your son's stats is "correlation dos not prove causation". There are many many issues hiding behind any set of statistics (as some of the above responses demonstrate).

Helleofabore · 16/11/2023 11:01

This might also be interesting :

Marcus Evans' paper

www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bjpsych-bulletin/article/freedom-to-think-the-need-for-thorough-assessment-and-treatment-of-gender-dysphoric-children/F4B7F5CAFC0D0BE9FF3C7886BA6E904B

Many interesting links but worth remembering this:

Evans said: During the 1980s, I led a parasuicide service in King's College Hospital, London, and treated a number of individuals who had self-harmed or attempted suicide after gender reassignment surgery. These patients had a history of serious and enduring mental illness and/or a personality disorder. Having developed a late-onset gender dysphoria, they were often angry at the loss of their biological sexual functioning and aggrieved with psychiatric services, which they felt had failed to examine their motivations for requesting reassignment surgery and/or to adequately investigate their psychological difficulties. A common theme in their presentations was a belief that physical treatments would remove or resolve aspects of themselves that caused them psychic pain. When the medical intervention failed to remove these psychological problems, the disappointment led to an escalation of self-harm and suicidal ideation, as resentment and hatred towards themselves were acted out in relation to their bodies.

Nolongerlight · 16/11/2023 11:01

ginasevern · 16/11/2023 10:56

@TomeTome

"Realistically neither of you “know the stats” and both of you are relying on randoms on the internet to inform you and give you ammunition to “win” the discussion."

I would also add that it is a right of passage to hold different views to your parents. Every generation has to question and explore the status quo in order to bring something new to bring to the table. Without this we would be stuck in the dark ages. I would congratulate him for showing an interest rather than arguing the toss with him.

I do think part of helping children grow into adults is helping them to learn how to think critically and challengingly and how to understand how to evaluate data and evidence.

If he is bringing you 'data' to back his case, its a good opportunity to do this.

Helleofabore · 16/11/2023 11:04

Helleofabore · 16/11/2023 10:51

www.mdpi.com/2227-9032/10/1/121/htm

A few things stand out.
-the number of patients with underlying mental health issues. And how they are being completely let down by affirming only treatment.

-The number of visits before receiving hormones was 2.7 appointments.

-67 patients average age 27.8 years -range was 12- 54
-42 females, 22 males, four NB (3 f / 1 m)
-Female mean age is 18 years, male 23 years.
-Out of the 67, only 9 (13%) had NO mental health diagnosis. 10 (15%) had diagnosed ASD, 4 with ADHD (6%), 3 (4%) with OCD, 1 with Bipolar, 7 (10%) with a Personality Disor

The rate of detransition amongst those who had received at least hormones was 9.8%. This is in line with the European study below which showed a long term detransition rate of medicalised transitioners of males 8.8% and females 8.3%.

From this study

Nine patients had stopped hormone therapy; one related to practice policy because they had not attended any GIC follow-up (the patient has restarted since the audit). Thus, eight patients had stopped hormones voluntarily (20% stopping rate; six trans men, two trans women).

This is the other study with the figures 8.8% & 8.3%:

//www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5580378/

135 natal males (119 living in the female role, 12 in the male role, 4 did not report their current gender role) and 66 natal females (60 living in the male role, 5 in the female role, 1 did not report a current gender role)

So... 8.88% of males and 8.33% of the females (this does not include those who did not answer the question which if the answer was to detransition would make these figures higher). And in Figure 3. 22.2% of those who socially transitioned, detransitioned.

What is interesting to note is that there are now studies who have published averages of time to detransition. This varies but is usually around 7+ years ( I will go and find the study). It is only from NOW that we are going to be able to identify the detransition rate of the clearly seen 'bulge' of adolescent teenaged female patients who transitioned in that bulge.

Here is Dr Az Hazeem saying he had about 26% of his patients regretted transitioning.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12623643/Being-trans-non-binary-new-sub-culture-risk-raising-nation-chemically-castrated-children-Doctor-spent-12-years-working-vulnerable-teens-Tavistock-warns-gender-ideology.html

He said 26 per cent of his patients at the Tavistock and Portman regretted transitioning.

I think that this one is one of the most interesting, so I will pull it out. This is a long term study. One of the few that have been done but again, it was done prior to the huge increases in female adolescent patients seeking transition.

//www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5580378/

135 natal males (119 living in the female role, 12 in the male role, 4 did not report their current gender role) and 66 natal females (60 living in the male role, 5 in the female role, 1 did not report a current gender role)

So... 8.88% of males and 8.33% of the females (this does not include those who did not answer the question which if the answer was to detransition would make these figures higher). And in Figure 3. 22.2% of those who socially transitioned, detransitioned.

Effects of Medical Interventions on Gender Dysphoria and Body Image: A Follow-Up Study

The aim of this study from the European Network for the Investigation of Gender Incongruence is to investigate the status of all individuals who had applied for gender confirming interventions from 2007 to 2009, irrespective of whether they received tr...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5580378/

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