Hung Parliament?

[TimeLady]

I had our Tory MP on the doorstep this morning.

He's predicting a hung Parliament with Labour in Government backed by the SNP.

That's women's rights straight down the pan then. All these recent gains will mean absolutely zilch.

Do you think he wants you to vote conservative by any chance?

In Scotland, do you mean?

There will not be a hung parliament in Westminster. Not on current polling anyway.

No. North of England. He's in a pretty safe Tory seat.

He thinks the SNP will retain enough Westminster seats to prop up a Labour administration.

Ah, “a coalition of chaos”? Or strong and stable government with the Tories? Think he’s been in a coma since 2017.

He's deluded but, frankly, if that prospect bothers you the only way to avoid it is to vote Labour.

I'm not at all a fan of Labour at the moment but I'm much more worried by the prospect of a weak Labour government who need to listen to the SNP/Lib Dems than by Starmer in a solid position.

Current polls show SNP only a few points ahead of Labour in Scotland. With SNP and Tories floundering difficult to see Labour losing an election. Starmer is not going to switch to support the SNP over Gender reform post election, because it hugely unpopular. It is a key weakness that undermined SNP's power he knows that.

Even if it is a hung parliament gaining votes from the SNP to betray women are not going to be worth antagonising the pro woman MPs in Labour. According to Rosie there are 40-50. Most of them won't say things publically yet, but they were key in moving things forward.

Remember NOT a single Labour MP has gone on record to attack Starmer's rejection of self ID in a serious way. Even the most mouthy TRA MPs in Labour have been pretty much silent.

This doesn't mean Labour are not going to do some bad things. However what we need to be watching is the faction fights within Labour. See how much progress LWD makes. Above all keep pushing from outside hold all parties to account.

I thought the SNP was driving through all this ridiculous and unpopular gender policy mostly because of the Bute House Agreement with the Greens, who are totally obsessed with this stuff. Now that climate change and other environment issues are solved and all.

If we did end up with a Labour minority government in Westminster propped up by the SNP, what political reason would they have to push gender ideology into law? They know it's increasingly unpopular.

If we did end up with a Labour minority government in Westminster propped up by the SNP, what political reason would they have to push gender ideology into law? They know it's increasingly unpopular

I don't believe there is any real prospect of a formal SNP/Labour coalition, but in that scenario, Holyrood could well submit GRA reform again, and if a Labour led Westminster government contemplates S35'ing it again, they're losing the coalition.

Fair enough, that's a Scotland-only issue, but nonetheless, Starmer could well play the line that although he's against any such reform in England, this is a Scottish bill with the overwhelming approval of Scottish parliamentarians, so it isn't appropriate to S35 it. The upcoming court challenge should also provide some clarity on whether or not the reasons given by Westminster for enacting S35 hold any water, so it's entirely possible it will come back in an amended form that contains nothing that Westminster could conceivably use to justify an S35 in any case. It also may be that it is adjudged that the issues Westminster currently has are entirely within Westminster's ability to resolve, so who knows.

Still though, I don't think there is any prospect of a formal coalition rather than an informal one, but there won't really be any certainty about that until the outcome of the GE is known.

He's only saying that because he wants you to vote Tory.

There's no chance of a formal coalition with the SNP, because labour won't support another referendum on Scottish independence. There could be a confidence and supply agreement, but they'll be able to sort that with the lib Dems instead of need be.

And to be honest, there's almost no chance that labour don't get a majority at the next election, unless the Tories somehow manage to fix everything in the next 12 months (Spoiler alert, they won't)

Ironically the worse the SNP does, there is more likely to be an increase Labour seats in Scotland, making a UK Labour government is more likely. Proportionally (in terms of number of votes needs to get elected) Labour in Scotland has always been an important part of getting a UK Labour government.

But ... have to admit I that it now seems that currently Scottish Labour is now distinct from Labour in England (let alone Wales) so would they work with Labour England.

So a coalition might be Labour England, SNP & Scottish Labour.

There is absolutely no chance of a Lab/SNP pact - the animosity both ways but especially Scottish Lab to SNP means it just is a no go.

He thinks the SNP will retain enough Westminster seats to prop up a Labour administration.

Ive heard several other Tory (liars) saying this recently. It’s the new line to scare you into voting for them, because they can’t tell you anything good the government have actually done over the last 13 years.

Every single poll points to a huge Labour majority.

So a coalition might be Labour England, SNP & Scottish Labour.

No, Scottish Labour really wouldn't work with the SNP, and I doubt the SNP would work with them either.

Kier's change of heart has put Sarwar in a tough position but I hope Sarwar will get to a sensible position in the end. I certainly won't be delivering leaflets if he doesn't.

And I'm not the only one

Every single poll points to a huge Labour majority.

I suspect this may be right, because nearly every Government that's been in power as long as the Tories dont last. Even without the rotating PMs, and everything else eg Brexit and so on.

The reality is though, that asking everybody their vote, doesn't allow for the fact that most constituencies dont change which party their MP comes from.

For a poll to be accurate of a new Government, you would need to survey the marginals. Which this time could be said to include those red wall seats that went blue last time, as well as though few that do often change.

I suspect that turnout will be the biggest influence. ie Labour & green will be more committed to turning out. Tories wont. Which maybe why they are making the comments as in OP.

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Just as an aside I was checking GE results since 1945 and because of FPP there was one election when Labour got more individual votes, but ended up with fewer seats than the Tories! 1951. And just another boring fact - Labour's worse defeat wasn't under Corbyn's leaderships but in 1983. Michael Foot and defections to SDP.

SLab and SNP won't even cooperate in Holyrood so I find this highly unlikely.

The last poll I saw had Labour at a 400 seat advantage, or thereabouts.

A year’s a long time in politics, but it would take something bordering a miracle (from the Tory POV) to make the next election anything other than a complete wipeout for them.

I think Labour are useless enough to still somehow lose from this position. We'll see.

The last poll I saw had Labour at a 400 seat advantage

As I said above, this assumes that seats in parliament are allocated on number of total votes cast.

There will be some seats where only a few votes could change the MP but in others where even a huge swing will not make a difference.

Marginals not held by Labour ie target for Labour https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

Marginals held by Labour https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/labour#UKParliament

Somebody clever with maths and time on their hand could work out what the swing would need to be in each seat.

But when the opportunity of government beckons.......

The polls are never accurate, as saying you'll vote labour is a virtue signal/you get harassed for saying you'll vote tory. People lie. Hence the actual results always surprising everyone.

A labour/all other insane left parties coalition would be the worst possible outcome, yes. Although they will be so busy being batshit and fighting amongst themselves hopefully they will have little time to do much real damage, it takes several years to successfully put much in reverse anyway in real terms, and I'm starting to think it may take this to get the general public loudly angry enough about this for enough women to get up off their bums and stand up for their daughters' futures.

He thinks the SNP will retain enough Westminster seats to prop up a Labour administration.

He's likely right that the SNP will retain their third party status, and therefore be the most tempting choice for a coalition partner should anyone need one - because the only party that even stand in enough seats to overtake them are the Lib Dems and they're not exactly shining at the moment either. But while Youssaf as leader may (but likely won't) have a different take, the SNP have always been extremely reluctant to consider entering into a Westminster coalition, although they might consider confidence and supply support under certain circumstances. Coalition, I think, is likely a step too far from their "here to settle up, not settle down" mantra, although I suppose the possibility of a Section 30 would push them into it. All those old campaign posters of Ed Miliband in Alex Salmond's pocket (despite Nicola Sturgeon being Leader and Salmond simply an MP and not even Westminster leader at the time) were "clever" Conservative fabrications intended to spook the horses/scare the geese.

That said, I'm not at all convinced that the SNP, independent of Scot Green influence as they would be in a theoretical WM arrangement, are WORSE on women's rights that Labour. Certainly, Scottish Labour have been howling at the moon over the GRR and the Isla Bryson debacle, while the SNP have just been relatively quiet and ineffective (and divided) on these issues. At the moment, I suspect there's more to fear (for women, anyway) from a Labour majority.

I'm pretty new to the GC party (6 months or so) I've been appalled at what some Labour MPs have said i.e women can have a penis. Haven't the party made a bit of a turn around since the Scottish fiasco? I can't vote Tory. I just can't. I certainly dont think they are on womens side and all of this trouble has emerged on their watch! I know our local Labour MP was all for self ID. I'll probably have to vote for an independent. I think Labour will win by a landslide.

This is a letter I sent to my former safe seat Labour MP. I have since had email signed by someone with She/ Her pronouns which makes me unconvinced that anything has changed.

As a former constituent living abroad who will be getting back my vote before the next election I would be interested to hear if your views have changed recently on the issue of women’s rights to sex protected facilities. For years women have been told this is not an issue and unimportant but now we see that as it affects 51% of the population it is being talked about in all circles. And the Labour Party is deciding that they want to be seen as changing their mind. We are not convinced.

Provided you still think that men can become women and make it easy for them to get a GRC, women will still be at risk from males. You have said in the past that there is no problem if men ,including sex offenders, can be placed in women’s prisons. Do you still think this, after what happened in Scotland?

There are now numerous examples of similar offences against women that have been recorded as having been committed by women, but this has the effect of skewing the figures, where it was actually males. The rules that mean female prisoners can be searched by males . This is totally unacceptable.

We think that people should be able to dress as they please within socially accepted norms. Ie no fetishes on show, but that only biological women should be able to access women only groups/ facilities, so no access for men who have some sort of identity.

Language must be clear that having a GRC does not entitle you to go where women say no. This will also safeguard children in schools where misguidedly, “gender neutral” toilets and changing rooms have been introduced. As a lesbian , small groups and meetings and social spaces should be for lesbians only. No male can be a lesbian.
The police (and the Labour Party) should stop harrassing women for wrongspeak.

Actually the best way to show women and girls that your policies have indeed changed is to clarify the Equality Act and get rid of the GRC, stop falsifying birth certificates and other documents. No surgical procedures should be allowed in prisons or under the NHS especially to anyone under the age of 25. This is abuse when undertaken on a child and it is astonishing as a former social worker, that this affirmation has been enforced.

Now we know exactly how self ID or and change of ID can be used to evade eg DBS checks, women and girls are more at risk than ever.

Please let me know your views on the above.

Good letter - was the email just an acknowledgement rather than an answer to the points you raised?

but I bet Labour are hoping that women will be getting in touch going we are so pleased you are beginning to understand our issues with men in women's spaces / services. If we are very good and dont make a fuss could you go a little bit further to look after women's rights??!!