Britains very own battle for births

[SerendipityJane]

(As mentioned by yours truly recently).

‘I’ve done my bit by having six children, so now you do yours”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/06/conservative-calls-women-more-babies-hide-pernicious-motives

that's all a bit Children of Men isn't it?

turns out that the personal is political

And if you lose your job/your partner loses his job and you can no longer afford to look after your children what then? Child benefit is, after all, capped at 2. So then its "don't have children you can't afford". I suppose you could make sure you/your husband get a really well paying job to support all the children but not everyone could and then there will be complaints that British people don't want to do all the essential jobs that aren't as well paying. So we could raise minimum wage in those jobs to make it possible for someone on a single income to support multiple children (and maybe also SAHM for the early years) and save for a rainy day but I don't think he's proposing that.

And when I talk about jobs not paying well enough that isn't just the least well paid either. It's a massive chunk of the population. And it isn't just having the income in that moment it's having enough to feel secure for the future.

Also the fall in UK birthrates isn't a population collapse. It is lower than replacement and it is an issue, but countries like Japan and South Korea aren't just ahead of us, they are on a completely different trajectory. Also coincidentally the countries suffering the most severe decline in childbirth are also the ones with the most entrenched ideas about men/women's place in the workplace. So I don't think us all becoming tradwives will help.

Also the fall in UK birthrates isn't a population collapse. It is lower than replacement and it is an issue, but countries like Japan and South Korea aren't just ahead of us, they are on a completely different trajectory. Also coincidentally the countries suffering the most severe decline in childbirth are also the ones with the most entrenched ideas about men/women's place in the workplace. So I don't think us all becoming tradwives will help.

‘I’ve done my bit by having six children, so now you do yours”

”having” eh? So what role did he play in the “having” of these infants?

He successfully fertilised an egg on six different occasions? That’s some heavy reproductive labour he’s undertaken there. Truly, a hero of our times.

There is nothing more guaranteed to make me not want to ever have any more children than JRM telling me it's my duty to! Ergh. It's straight out of The Handmaids Tale, or similar.

Make the UK genuinely family friendly and reduce the burden on women for caring and family life, then you'll see an increase in the birth rate. But that would be too much like hard work, much easier just to blame women and make it about duty or some such bollocks.

‘I’ve done my bit by having six children, so now you do yours”

— a man

🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

As well as better childcare and benefits for mothers these pro-natalist types could also be calling for a reform of maternity and postnatal care, if they actually gave a shit.

(I just learned yesterday that a lot of Japanese health insurance doesn’t include maternity; amazing that the men in charge there have been fretting about the birth rate for literally decades and not fixed that.)

Child benefit isn't capped at two.
You're probably thinking if child tax credits and the child element of universal credit which is capped at two (after 2017 and with some exceptions).

I did NOT need to think about that. Bleeeeurgh.

I was yes sorry. My point still stands though!

South Korea and Japan are notoriously anti immigration. In a way that's incomparable to the UK, where inter racial relationship are common.

This is thinly veiled racism. Nothing more, nothing less.

South Korea and Japan are notoriously anti immigration. In a way that's incomparable to the UK,

That's unfair. The UK has had to come from a long way behind to get to where we are today. Another 5 years and we'll get there, despite naysaying negative nellies like you.

(Looks over shoulder, snaps "Jane !" and slaps wrist)

No. I'm saying about how much south Korea and Japan are in terms of dislike of foreigners and how this has impacted population numbers. The UK by contrast has an aging population but the population size is still increasing not declining because our immigration policy isn't as racist as Japan and South Korea. They have a declining population because of the birth rate declining alone.

To say that we have a problem with population numbers in this context is bullshit. Especially when you consider that the birth rate in white Brits is the fastest declining (it's stable in several other ethnicities).

The UK by contrast has an aging population but the population size is still increasing not declining because our immigration policy isn't as racist as Japan and South Korea

Yet.

I found this documentary:

And this discussion about it with Peterson

To be thought provoking. It's not about forcing people who don't want children to have them, but it is realising that many people who want children are missing that fertile window which is shorter and more rigid than the other stages of our lives which are expanding with our longer lifespans.

It's hard to turn that cultural ship around, if people are finding their partners later in life, or are spending their fertile years in an extended period of establishing their education and careers, or are financially struggling with high housing costs and student loans or have extremely high expectations of the lifestyle they need to be able to afford to be good parents, or less experience of what children/parenting is like so aren't confident about having kids or hold the belief that having more children is a luxury/feckless...

I'm in my late thirties and out of the friendship group I had at school, one is childless by choice, two so far by circumstance and two of us have had two kids. Obviously it's a small sample size but I think it's easy for those of us with kids to socialise with other parents and not realise how many people are not, especially in the generations coming up behind us.

Birth rates are falling in almost every country of the world apart from a few in sub-Saharan Africa. Even in those countries the birth rate is slowing (e.g. where the average birth rate used to be seven or eight children per woman it's now more like five or six).

The world's population is expected to peak by 2100 at the latest, possibly as early as 2050.

Immigration to the west is a short-term solution since immigrants tend to adopt the customs of the host country. So first generation immigrants might have five children but those children will go on to have around two.

As population starts to decline in less economically developed countries, there will be fewer migrants to move to the west. There is also the ethical conundrum of having to hope that other countries stay poor in order to ensure a steady stream of migration to the west (because people only tend to migrate if they perceive there to be better opportunities abroad).

Predicting the future is hard. From an environmental perspective, having fewer humans undoubtedly relieves pressure on the planet. And who knows how AI will transform the job market. I don't necessarily think a falling population level is a bad thing.

However, right now I believe the UK has a fertility rate of 1.5 children per woman - well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Europe is similar. South Korea has the lowest birth rate at 0.8 children per woman, but a lot of countries are following the same trajectory.

This will have a transformative impact on society. I don't think anyone needs to be a supporter of Gilead to recognise that there will be problems (along with some benefits) of an ageing worldwide population.