The dead end ahead

[RealityFan]

Speaking here as a fully paid up GC, effectively zero dissent from the fact that female sex based rights are sacrosanct, and any belief that any human can change sex is denying material reality.

I've been fully engaged in the debate for more years than I care to think about, culminating in 2023 where I've decided to pin my colours to the mast on all this.

Initially, the Maya etc court cases, IOC and UCI declarations all made me happier things were changing for the better. Expected Cass Report to spur action.

And seeing the froth and burnt energy on Adam Bryson, Austin Killips, Mika Minio, Sarah Jane Baker, all telling me the ball is being fumbled by the TRA side.

But then I see the absolute kittens that Starmer and the Labour Party are having on any meaningful move to sanity, and knowing they'll soon be the "adults in the room", the lack of movement subject to Maya case, nada from Cass, and 101 other things.

And realising that however much we all want the GRA 2004 to be scrapped and re written to a much tighter script, there'll never be an appetite for this from any party least of all Labour, especially in relation to our ECHR obligations.

And seeing that this act which in 2004 was drafted ostensibly to deal with the 6-10k very sad irredeemably dysphoric individuals at that time to make their life palatable, thru mission creep now mutated and extended in 2023 to likely 500-600k people, mainly men, who want a GRC, likely to be made even wider in scope under a Starmer govt, what, maybe 1m people looking to change gender legally to access all spaces over a decade.

I know how this will go. The parameters will be widened, the requirements will be loosened, certificates provision will be sub contacted to lesser experts than doctors, maybe Stonewall approved therapists.

And that within the first two terms of a Labour govt, there will be in excess of 1m men now legally women, and some the other way.

Yes, there will be tighter control of men in women's elite sport, but none at amateur parkrun level. There will be tighter control of men in women's jails, but none in refuges.
And the chance of anyone at Primark, or my local gym, or the WI, or lesbian clubs/dating sites, demanding let alone being able to/regularly or even simply actually check GRCs at the door of changing rooms, refuges, social settings, internet groups, is precisely between 0 and 0.000.

So, yes, there will be progess in the most visible of situations...prisons, sports. But none elsewhere. Upwards of 1m will apply for GRCs, certainly by the time Starmer's changes kick in over his second term. And many more men who'll show women the middle finger on being asked for a non existent GRC.

I truly believe this is the reality that will crash like a dull thud towards decades end.

And despite being a GC up for the fight, I fail to see anything that can stop this inevitability. And I feel so badly for girls and women cast asunder on the altar of progressive politics.

Well that’s not the spirit is it.

I think real change will come not from paid up politicians, but the testimonies of young people caught up in this trend as they reach adulthood and realise they were sold a lie. I think it’s a brewing scandal.

It's likely to be the only civil war I'm involved in.
So much terrain destroyed, for what gain? New "citizens", a social ethnic cleansing of sorts.

Right now, the war is precisely balanced. De-transitioners, class actions, and the growing numbers of bored and pissed off Generation Alpha, alongside individual court cases refining the law, Maya, GCs more and more speaking up, and likely a Tory party run by GC Badenoch or Cates. More and more scientific and medical revelations showing the huge risks and deliberate negligence involved.

Otoh, a left/elites establishment pushing harder and harder (ignore Dodds statement and Keirs "of course!" interview, just obfuscation), and a frothing of the visuals and language (Adam Bryson, Austin Killips, Mika Minio, Sarah Jane Baker), plus crazy campus temperatures, keeping TRA very much visible and kinetic.

And in the middle of Maya/Cass/IOC etc pulling one way, and elites/showbiz/establishment pulling the other, comes Starmer and his "how thinly can you slice the onion" lack of policy and lack of intellectual rigour.

I think you're right. I fully understand the OP's pessimism but I think the scandal of the detransitioners, when it eventually emerges, is going to put an end to much of the trans madness.

Then again, look at how long it's taken for anyone to do anything about the infected blood scandal.

In my opinion (and I know from hundreds of hours on gc twitter and here that I'm not in the majority on this)... the change we need will not come from lawmakers. The change we need will and must come from societal opinion.

Ten or so years ago, if a man walked into a women's changing room, all the women would look askance, probably say something. He may or may not have had a GRC, SRS, whatever. It wouldn't have mattered. Mums would whisper to their daughters "that's a man!". We could report to the swimming pool management (or equiv) who would send security to remove him. Or a man might see him walking in and say "you do know that's the ladies'?!"

Nowadays if a man walks into the same, everyone is unsure. Is he trans? Is he legally allowed to be there? If we report this, will management back us up? (No!) You've all seen the tragic story where a schoolgirl got into a TW's car, as she was cold and needed a lift home, and he kidnapped her and abused her for days. I guess the adults around her hadn't whispered into her ear "watch out, that's a creepy man, not a woman".

The GRC be damned. I think they should be abolished but in a way I don't really care if a man has a meaningless bit of paper or not. I'd still stoutly rebuke any man who invades a single sex space. And in my corner of South London, I reckon most mums would do the same. We need that sentiment to spread so that a GRC becomes toothless.

I'd like to think so. But I'd also have expected a torrent of anger over Grenfell and even stuff like Windrush scandal, and on a smaller scale, the teacher in hiding up in Batley, and the kid victimised over scuffing the Koran at school.
Even Cass Report hasn't landed with the public as I thought it would.

I can genuinely see Starmer's "compromise" getting him over the line.

Q, when shit approaches fan in 2024-2028, the clock approaches one minute to midnight on women losing generations established rights, will they JSO style take to the streets, in a Suffragettes 2.0 campaign?

I realised just how the world had changed when at the weekend I accidentally entered the female loo at the pub. My heart skipped a beat as a woman brushed past me to exit.

As I stepped back and out toute suite, I apologised to her. A decade ago, she'd have probably torn a strip off me. In 2023? She was the one apologising to me, hoping she hadn't freaked me out.

For the worst case scenarios, the campaigning goal is to get the arguments and evidence out there of the harms of genderism, and to get the cheerleaders to loudly declare: "we don't care, we want this, this is ours, we own it". The scandal will break at some point, and the fact that some people passionately declared their ownership will provide some accountability.

Out of interest, where do you live (approximately)? I do think much of this is regional.

The other day a man walked into the female loos at my local pizza express - the stupid signs are a stylised woman and man symbol and you have to squint to work out which is which - and I nearly blew up at him before I realised how embarrassed he was and let him off because of the silly signs. I can almost guarantee any other local mum would have reacted the same, in spite of the rainbow crossings we have.

Not quite the same but just a week or so ago, a local mum gave a man a public bollocking on my bus for not giving up his seat to a pg woman. That's what my area is like, I live next to a big council estate and the mums there do not suffer fools!

I feel we just need that sentiment to spread. Women need to feel emboldened to speak up on an everyday basis. We need to feel justified (as indeed we are, in my opinion) to have a default-suspicious attitude towards all men where they shouldn't be. It wasn't long ago that this was the case everywhere.

In sunny (ie rainy) Norfolk.
I think she realised it was simple misunderstanding, and nothing was meant of it.
But in our BeKind and GOD DAMNIT, YOU WILL CALL ME MA'AM! times, I'd expect her reaction more and more.

We are getting less nice. That’s how society will change back, when we
stop being so pandering to fucking nonsense.

Honestly, the timeline where 1M people get GRCs and the sheer number of them renders them into vanity certificates that are totally ignored by the general population is one I'm backing!

The whole thing about "oh, we need to tightly control who gets GRCs" is actually counterproductive because it makes normal people think that it's carefully managed.

It's like seeing a woman, or POC, gay, elderly, disabled etc, being abused on a train.

You go in to break it up, to say something. Half worried noone will back you up, or worse, just record the whole thing for TikTok.

That's verbal and physical abuse on a weaker person.

But who will back up a woman seeing a new princess walk into the loo or changing room?

Will other women? Men?

Are these scenarios directly analagous, equivalent?

I'm not directly disagreeing with you, but I don't think I'm less nice than a "be kind" believer. I think it's important always to direct your tolerance/kindness/whatever to the more vulnerable person. (And a man, in any garb, is nearly always less vulnerable than a woman or child imo).

The mum on my bus wasn't "being nice" when she told off that bloke rudely and loudly but she was actually doing a really nice thing for the pg woman who needed the seat and didn't want to ask.

I mean @stealtheatingtunnocks I know we're basically agreeing on the fundamentals! I suppose I'm just getting defensive because I've been accused of being not nice or kind enough on this subject IRL. I'm like but I AM KIND just directing my kindness to women and children...!