How the framing of the gender question in the Census has produced invalid data

[IwantToRetire]

The census data released this week added to the list of anomalies. Muslims are almost three times more likely than non-religious people to identify as transgender. Black people are four times more likely than white people to identify as transgender. In every case, the census results contradict what we know from other data. For example, referrals to the Tavistock’s Gender Identity Development Service include far more white and non-religious youth than the overall population of the same age. By contrast, those census results are what would be expected if a number of people with poor English were confused by the question and inadvertently classified themselves as transgender.

The ONS has also finally this week released customised data showing the tabulation of gender identity by proficiency in English. As predicted, those who speak English ‘not well’ or ‘not well at all’ were most likely to be counted as transgender: 2.2 per cent of them, compared to 0.4 per cent of those whose main language is English (or Welsh in Wales). Adults whose main language is not English made up only 10 per cent of the overall population, but according to the census they contributed 29 per cent of the transgender numbers.

How did the ONS manage to produce such implausible data on gender identity? In ‘a case study of policy capture’, the statisticians were guided by lobby groups like Stonewall. It is surely no coincidence that the gender question replicated, with minor variation, Stonewall’s definition of ‘cisgender’: ‘Someone whose gender identity is the same as the sex they were assigned at birth’.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-does-the-census-say-there-are-more-trans-people-in-newham-than-brighton/

In some islamic countries it is more accepted to be transsexual then to be gay.
As a student I once had this friend from Iran and she was terrified of coming to Europe because she might be in a changing room or a public toilet with a lesbian. Whereas in Iran lesbians would change sex and never be in the same private spaces with women…

And then everyone applauded.

I just try to give a reason why data show this increase. I’m not saying it is a great idea…

So if so many people are trans they’re not a vulnerable oppressed minority are they?

It's clear in the article and analysis why the increase: there is a direct link between not speaking English as a first language and having ticked the trans box. The language and concepts were designed for a very first world group who, like the Tavistock et al have been recording for years are all very white and middle class statistically, all thoroughly soaked in the ideas and language on Reddit.

It was not designed for the real or diverse culture of the UK, it was tested only only the demographic who designed it for feelz and political enjoyment of that small political lobby group and with no interest at all in anyone else or data or outcomes, and it represents a full taxpayer funded cock up.

It's being looked at by the Office for Statistics Regulation:

Watchdog to examine ‘implausible’ UK census trans figures

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cffadd74-d889-11ed-80bc-e358583c5d62?shareToken=f6bf85eeac659d8e129c40853824bb31

It's being looked at by the Office for Statistics Regulation

Well that's a turn up. When the figures came out there were all sorts of celebrations about having "accurate" figures about the trans community, and now this.

But they only have themselves to blame.

But also, if it was the Spectator article that has made them do that, good on them for doing proper journalism.

Just leaves open the question why couldn't those responsible for collecting census data have done a proper job.

Very pleased to see this embarrassing shambles being reported in the Times and the Telegraph. Mangling national datas on order to pander to the gender woowoo addicts needs calling out everywhere.

Share token for the Times article:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cffadd74-d889-11ed-80bc-e358583c5d62?shareToken=e1afd4701afbaec2598f3be0ef88f9c4

I got this email today from statsitics.gov

Dear Justnot

Thank you for raising your concerns with us regarding the England and Wales Census 2021 data on gender identity and for your patience while we investigated the issues. We appreciate the detailed information that you have shared with us throughout this process.

Today we have

written to ONS to confirm that we will be undertaking a review of statistics on gender identity based on data collected as part of the 2021 England and Wales Census. We will be working with ONS to complete this within the next few months. The evidence you
have provided to date, as well as feedback we plan to collect as part of the review, will be used to inform our judgement.

Thank you once again for contacting us. We would be happy to discuss this matter further with you if you have any additional concerns.

Kind regards

Justnot, FPFW and Sex Matters also tweeted a link to this:

osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/ed-humpherson-to-jen-woolford-statistics-on-gender-identity-based-on-the-2021-england-and-wales-census-data/

twitter.com/fairplaywomen/status/1650513605190725640?s=46&t=WHoOZ_3Kv5G6-FyQuvE0LQ

twitter.com/sexmattersorg/status/1650468062418677761?s=46&t=WHoOZ_3Kv5G6-FyQuvE0LQ

Huh.

Thank you for the recent updates.

https://www.mumsnet.com/index.php/talk/womens_rights/4714523-1-in-585-trans-women-are-convicted-sex-offenders

It would be interesting to see the extent to which these figures would change based on more accurate census data.

Can someone explain what this means?!!

I've read it twice and just dont understand.

Blush.

In the OSR link, they mention this, published by the ONS on 14 April:

www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/genderidentityincensus2021

"The census findings on gender identity are broadly consistent with other sources including previous Government Equalities Office estimates and other comparable countries’ data. The estimated number of transgender people is slightly lower in the census than in a separate 2021 NHS survey.

The question on gender identity was tested thoroughly and the whole census questionnaire was available translated into nearly 50 languages to ensure it could be properly understood. When other formulations of the gender identity question were tested – for example simply asking respondents whether they are transgender – the question was less well understood than the final formulation that was used in Census 2021."

And the OSR says they're going to do a review:

"The scope of our review will be formed around the principles within the Code of Practice for Statistics and will consider ONS’ approach to responding to questions raised by users about the results of the data. It will not consider gender identity as a concept or the decision to collect data on gender identity."

I assume those principles are important. They must be these ones?

code.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/the-code/

"The framework for the Code of Practice is based on three pillars – Trustworthiness, Quality and Value.

Each pillar contains a number of principles and detailed practices that producers should commit to when producing and releasing official statistics. On each Code principle page there is a table with guidance and resources and links to case studies.
The Code also has three cross-cutting themess_, areas of practice that don’t fit within just one pillar – collaboration, coherence, and transparency.
The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR))_ reviews compliance with the Code. OSR also offers Code training seminars and workshops for statistics producers."

Although that states Code, it's the closest to Principles that I could find. So was the ONS question based on trustworthiness, quality and value? And produced via collaboration, coherence and transparency? That's my best guess.

@ResisterRex Thanks

So they are saying the census results are consistent with previous estimates?

Do the previous estimates explain why there appears to be a higher rate of those identifying as trans in areas where english is a second language?

And alll they are going to do is look at how they respond/ed to people who queried them?

I think the ONS says it's consistent. That was on 14 April so it must be after the data were queried by Biggs:

11 April
Watchdog to examine ‘implausible’ UK census trans figures
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cffadd74-d889-11ed-80bc-e358583c5d62?shareToken=f3466bc21278f4e816f79e734e0ccca9

Resister - thanks for links and explanations. Is there any information on what the actual answer to the gender identity question was taken to mean eg if you answered no gender identity does it mean your non binary and therefore trans (that’s practically a wild guess!)?