Data not anecdotes?

[thatisnotyours]

I'm trying to answer the question: are TW more of a threat to females than the average man?

Where can I find solid data about this?

Thanks!

You'd want to look at the crime stats and reported prevalence of trans males in the adult population. You can probably calculate the incident rate for an perpetrating sex crimes per 100,000 members of the population.

That's the approach I'd take, anyway. Bearing in mind that it was possible to calculate that more transwoman are imprisoned for sex crimes (by percentage of incarcerated individuals) than the male identifying male population.

TRAs might argue any variance is a product of overpolicing whereas my observation is we are existing in the Family Guy meme, so that seems unlikely.

Look at the MOJ stats…. That’s a big clue

IIRC correctly in terms of prisoners, men who claim a TW identity are more likely to be sex offenders than men who do not claim a TW identity. This says nothing about whether "real trans women" are more likely to be sex offenders, but given that there is no way of telling a "real TW" from a man claiming a TW identity the point is moot.

The issue is not so much transwomen as blokes pretending to be women and getting access to women at their most vulnerable. Like prison. The rates of so-called transwomen who have faked some transgender status (whatever TF that means) to get into women's prisons is alarming.
To my mind, it doesn't prove transwomen are a risk, it proves self ID/self selection is a risk. Because predators jump on the opportunity.

And the institutional capture by TRAs makes the risk greater

So how do you know who is a TW and who is a ‘bloke just pretending to be trans’. As no male can ever be a woman, therefore neither of these people are women, how do we differentiate?

Men who say they are women and in jail, 60% of them are there for sex related crimes. It doesn't break down towards who though.

Men who do not say they are women and in jail, 18% of them are there for sex related crimes. Also it doesn't break down who these crimes are towards.

So if a man says they are a woman, the odds are that if they were to commit a crime, they are 3 times as likely for it to be sex related. And as men are in the majority wanting sex with women, this is an increase that should be discussed at the highest level. However, women are less than men so it isn't. I'm betting if their crimes were against men, it would be discussed at the highest level.

"So how do you know who is a TW and who is a ‘bloke just pretending to be trans’. As no male can ever be a woman, therefore neither of these people are women, how do we differentiate?"
You can't. And that's why they must all stay out of women's spaces. Women are not comfort blankets or human shields.

This 100% this

I prefer the word "claim" - it more useful and accurate.

Trans women are men who claim to have a trans woman identity.

Men who are pretending to be trans women are men who claim to have a trans woman identity.

There is literally nothing to distinguish a TW from a man claiming a TW identity, because they are by definition the same thing.

I think it would be incredibly dangerous to assume that someone who has just come out as trans has a less valid claim than someone who has worn women's clothes for a very long time, not least as a man can wear women's clothes and not claim to be a TW, and a man can wear men's clothes and claim to be a TW.

One might argue that the best way of someone who claims to be a TW proving that they are "genuinely a TW" would be for them to prove that they understand that changing sex is impossible and that all they can do is LARP at womanhood as best as possible using hormones, surgery, make-up and clothes.

I agree completely with bellini

I prefer the word "claim" - it more useful and accurate. ... There is literally nothing to distinguish a TW from a man claiming a TW identity, because they are by definition the same thing.

Stongly agree.

Which in turn means the population of "transwomen" will be different depending on environment, and who's making the claim.

In Iran, men claim to be women because homosexuality is outlawed, so "transwomen" will tend to be homosexual.

In South America, men perform as women in prostitution, so "transwomen" tend to be prostitutes and at high risk of violent crime. (This is where the bulk of the "transwomen" being vulnerable comes from.)

In the UK, an awful lot of sex offending men claim to be women after conviction, so in prison "transwomen" tend to be heterosexual sex offenders.

Any statement or data about "transwomen" is going to be very dependent where you found your "transwomen" - it's not going to be generally applicable to "transwomen" in some other scenario, as that will be a different population of men who trans identified for different reasons.

So going back to your original post - there is data that "transwomen" in prison are disproportionately sex offenders, but there's no way you can assume that's representative of non-prison "transwomen".

I think we need to be careful when we say Transwomen or people pretending to be transwomen.

They are one in the same - MALE.

There is no difference. I do feel a bit sorry for genuine transsexuals but then I loom at Twitter and KM or IW and their hatred for woman- my sympathy disappears quickly.

Imo, there is no such thing as a 'genuine transwoman'. There are men who have different motivations for saying they are women. And I can't think of a single motivation that isn't, at best, sexist, and at worst, highly misogynistic.

committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/18973/html/

According to Karen Ingala Smith, "The most rigorous data that we have currently on trans males and their rates of committing violent crime, tells us that at best their crimes followed the pattern of male offending, and that was only if they received psychological support as well as surgery and hormones. Without psychological support, trans males’ rates of violent offending were significantly higher than those of other males." (From: kareningalasmith.com/)

I don't know what data she is referring to, though. If you're on Twitter, maybe you could ask her.

You won't. The data exists on males and females where males are shown to be a larger threat.

It's the other side who have no data though. they maintain that people who identify as men pose a threat to people who identify as women. There is no data on this, and soon there won't be on the former either since the definitions have been legally changed.