Trans guidance for schools - "that British fudge that so often works"

[ResisterRex]

In The Times. Looks like a Cabinet split may open up. It's not clear where the extra space will come from for the gender neutral toilets. And it won't be statutory guidance either:

Ministers seek compromise on transgender advice for schools

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/006ef0b0-4818-11ed-8558-9a2089c4aed0?shareToken=6b7644896a593dcb3760a4516b1200ec

"A senior government source said: “This never used to be such a divisive issue: people just accepted trans people and got on with it. It only became an issue once the activists got involved and polarised people. We need to get back to that British fudge that so often works.” They added: “In schools we need to find a compromise that works for all pupils, whether that’s having gender-neutral toilets as well or something else.”"

They will be replaced @TheClogLady. The Tories are toast. The only thing we can do is focus our energies on them to fix the mess they made before they are replaced.

But Layburr hasn't fixed anything.

So when we have stories about the civil service leaking stories on the trans "conversion therapy" ban to ITV because they want to force it through against the minister's wishes, it's actually the Tory party doing this?

I am telling you that no matter what party is in power you will not see a change because it is the civil service in control of things.

The civil service have been known to protest against ministers' wishes for them to drop out of Stonewall campaigns.

What makes you think it was the Civil Service that leaked it, and not a Tory MP @ResisterRex?

I’m really not convinced.

Labour will not take Scotland back from the SNP (which is how Labour lost in 2010) so where do all those extr red seats come from? The southern blue seats are far more likely to go yellow than red, except for a few seaside CLPs that have had loads of London commuters move in.

Might get some of the red wall back, but that’s not a parliamentary majority.

The poll numbers are good for Labour but this is a first past the post system so country wide percentages mean nothing seat by seat.

I agree.

Same shit different day, thanks to the CS.

This is true.

We see the cast majority of Western countries face the same problems, whether it be fuel bills, inflation, push for trans rights etc.

Only those who are politically myopic believe that it can only be one party in one country. Very few countries operate in isolation.

Groups like Stonewall lobby international organisations (like the UN) and international companies to get their message spread worldwide. Is Joe Biden a member of the British Conservative party? Is that why his party is pushing through these policies? Or is it the capture of international organisations that put pressure on governments all over the world?

They've tanked the economy @TheClogLady. Brexit isn't done. The NHS is broken. Everyone is planning strikes. Men are being placed in women's single sex spaces. Girls are to move over and wait for boys. We've more police under investigation for misogyny and VAWG than we do investigation burglary (ok that one's hyperbole). And winter is coming.

I'm not sure the Tory party itself will survive, nevermind win the next GE.

i think you are naive, perhaps due to optimism.

Yes, if there were an election today the Tories would face significant losses, but it wouldn’t translate into automatic gains for Labour in the way you seem to imagine.

Here’s the current seat map by Nowcast. The map with all the blue is actual results from 2019 and the far more multicoloured map is based on recent polling applied on a seat by seat basis.

we’ve got boundary changes coming too, which is predicted to work in the Tories favour.

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html

When I look at either Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem etc they're very similar. The country would be in the same position no matter who was in power because of external worldwide scenarios like Covid and Ukraine. Most Western countries are facing the same problems.

All I do know is that the Tories are less pro-trans than Labour, so it is rather bizarre to claim that Labour will fix it. This is the same party who gave no support to Rosie Duffield.

But it is the civil service who are key to this and they don't change after general elections.

I'd love to know how one would "fudge" guidance on stuff like this reading for children aged 13+:

https://twitter.com/famedtrust/status/1579780074165112832?s=46&t=rzsnu4jLncP_5Wm6mBxyLA

"Welcome to St Hell: My Trans Teen Misadventure"

Just when you think you're unshockable

This is ignorant. Completely oversimplistic nonsense to blame everything on foreign affairs.

Drives me mad reading this rubbish.

Look at what has happened to the £ since September 22nd. Neither Lib Dems or Labour under Starmer (not Corbyn!) would have done this to the economy. Of course the government matters.

It's silly to say that the current state of things will make any party unelectable two years from now.

It's reasonable to say, if they keep certain policies, or the economic environment stays the same , or whatever, but the fact is two years is a long time in party politics.

The biggest disadvantage that the Tories have, because it's not something they can change, is they have been in power a long time and bear the brunt of all the dissatisfaction people have had over that period. I'd say their leadership team is also a disadvantage, but that could change, potentially.

Labour is continually disadvantaged by their propensity to infighting, and some of their ideological commitments such as identity politics. The former could change but it would require a strong popular leader to emerge, and there is no sign of such a person. The latter could certainly change and might put a totally different face on things.

The problem of dealing with the capture of the civil service, and also arm's length public organizations, is significant, but achievable. But that kind of change requires concerted effort by the political leaders over time. It's not a six month project. If Truss were to apply herself diligently now, she might have a lot accomplished by the next election. But it's important to remember that these people are not political appointments and there are limits to how the government can interfere, and these limits exist for very good reasons.

@TheClogLady, I haven't said anything about Labour gains. That is your imagination. And you are being optimistic if you think the Tories are not on the verge of being wiped out.🙈

The best thing about it is that they're doing it to themselves.🤣🤣🤣

No it wouldn't. Because the Brexit vote wouldn't have happened. We would still be in the EU and have foreign trade deals with countries outside the EU. And the very existence of the Union would not be under threat. Nevermind the legal, parliamentary and economic balls up that is happening in NI.

We probably would not have had 4 PMs in 6 years with all the chaos it's caused.

I read the ITN report about the leaked documents. What makes you think the CS leaked it and not one of the Tory MPs quoted who want a ban on conversion therapy @ReunitedThorns?

I’m not a Tory. I have no optimism regarding the Conservative party. I simply understand that we have to work with whoever is in power and that the First Past the Post system means the popular vote is neither here nor there.

I am (was?) old school Labour, this sort of Labour. The Labour that existed before it was eaten from within by IDPOL and Queer Theory.

Labour is now just a husk. All but useless to the people it was founded to represent.

You’ve definitely been all over various threads saying how Labour are going to win the next GE.

To the point I’ve started to wonder if you are a paid shill for Starmer (except the party is almost bankrupt and can’t actually afford to fight a GE any time soon so they deffo can’t afford to pay for mumsnet posters to slag off the opposition)!

it’s a massive derail but how on earth do you think Labour will win if Tory losses don’t translate into Labour gains? Who are Labour going to take their winning seats from?

You've definitely been all over other threads saying how Labour are going to win the next GE.

I definitely haven't. My anti-tory stance doesn't mean I'm pro-Labour. Again, you are imagining it. Mad that in your mind being anti Tory = Labour shill.🤣🤣🤣

Is it really so difficult for you to get your head around the fact that I could hate the Tories because of what they've done to my country and the rights of UK citizens, particularly women?

That's horrendous @ResisterRex. The fudge will be the usual, you don't have to use it but you can if you want. Which is the direction the Tories are moving in this. They don't give a shiny shit about safeguarding women and children as they've demonstrated through their actions.

I don't understand why you think the Tories wouldn't lose seats to Labour, @TheClogLady ?

It’s not that I think the Tories won’t lose ^any* to Labour, it’s that without winning back Scotland, I can’t see how the numbers stack up to a Labour majority overall. Especially as the boundary change scheduled for next year is likely to work in Tory favour.

obviously the number of Tory seats will fall, but there aren’t THAT many Labour/Conservative battle ground seats.

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/general-election-2019-marginality/

I’ve already posted these up thread but the two maps are the 2019 results and what would likely happen if a general election happened now, while Labour are polling so high.

The chart is what would’ve happened in the 2019 election based on the new constituency boundaries that we are likely to have in the next GE. Wales and the NW (usually red) will have fewer MPs and the south (usually blue) will have more.

Labour have NEVER won a UK GE without winning Scotland.

Here’s a Guardian article from the beginning of the month (most relevant extracts in the screen shots).

theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/02/to-win-an-outright-commons-majority-labour-will-have-to-gamble

Perhaps Labour can squeak a minority government with a supply/demand deal with the Lib Dems or form a coalition with the SNP (which will mean another indie referendum and possibly the break up of the UK) but a majority is a massive ask, to the point it would have to be a better win than both Attlee in 45 or Blair in 97.

we might end up with another Tory/DUP deal, which will make it a bit Feeble, like May’s government, but won’t lose them all their power.

I’m not arguing that Labour aren’t way more popular right now, they are, but the first past the post system is fairly batshit, we’ve still got two years to go, and Scotland doesn’t look like it’s coming back to the Labour fold any time soon.

It seems like Labour has never really faced the problem of Scotland.

In some ways I wonder if it's because they can't stand to really take a very pro-unionist stance, because it just doesn't sit well with their feelings on things like colonialism and empire. It's very difficult to argue for your own system and political arrangements when you are spending a lot of time talking about how they are inherently exploitative, or about any kind of affection for the idea of Britain when you are embarrassed by those kinds of displays.

It means they can't really put together a strategy, and are disinclined to talk about it and face the real implications electorally.

It maybe speaks to a larger problem in terms of conceptualizing what it is that they think holds it all together. It's not any over-arching identity. It's not political institutions. It's not ethnicity, or language.

@TheClogLadyNo one can predict an election two years away, of course but the current situation in the polls would result in a very high number of Con--> Lab handovers.

You seem to be discounting current polling, not sure why. If the polling changes, then the polling changes. However it appears the blue wall is at risk in a way it just has not been before.

Agree boundary changes will help the Tories' if they put them through.

SSUK thread on the NEU's latest position, which is related to the topic of guidance on fudging it in schools because delivery of it will depend on who's in charge:

twitter.com/safeschools_uk/status/1579940804696870914?s=46&t=4fhGmQ8wlxmFG7a2INFOIw

This is an important incident to remember. They wrote in July 2020 and no one replied:

twitter.com/safeschools_uk/status/1579940850057895936?s=46&t=4fhGmQ8wlxmFG7a2INFOIw

"We didn’t get a response from @ NAHTnews who partnered with Diversity Role Models who were found to be using the PIE era slogan “love has no age”. It’s indescribable how disturbing this lack of understanding of #safeguarding is from a union of Headteachers"

twitter.com/safeschools_uk/status/1280840054986944513?s=46&t=4fhGmQ8wlxmFG7a2INFOIw

Thanks for sharing. There are serious issues at the NEU which the leaders just blame on "conference"'. We had a meeting with Kevin and Mary back in 2019. Mary looked confused when we asked her how many women they had consulted on their trans guidance which suggested female teachers and students should share their spaces with males.

There are concerns with other unions too.

So many teachers contact us as they are worried about their jobs if they challenge something. They do not feel their union would support them if they disagreed in any way with the union line.

Last month the NEU told their members to ignore suella braveman.

Thank you 2fallsfromSSA
The situation in schools is incredibly worrying - it's the seedbed for so much of what's happening. A bit of a shame this thread got diverted (yet again) onto wider politics as there's a lack of concrete strategies for getting dodgy anti safeguarding organisations out of schools.