@JunkIsland
The draft prediction thing really depends on the source and timing. The mainstream sources tend to overvalue players who succeed at large colleges in competitive divisions because of profile, and they also tend to put out projection articles early on in the year. Sites that are run and staffed by independents tend to have a more nuanced approach to player evaluation based on career projection and fit, and potential for physical development over actual college output. Some of them are also less inclined to paint themselves into a corner by tagging players to go in specific spots, and will talk more in terms of ceilings/floors for where a specific player might go.
There's no denying that Te'o was a productive college talent, and playing at a significant programme he was always going to garner attention before moving to the Pros. The questions over how he projected at NFL level were always about his small size and limited athleticism rather than his character or off-field events. Opinions from after Te'o's awful Combine performance were still split on whether he was a legitimate 1st round talent, or whether he was destined to be yet another of the countless athletes who are stars at Collegiate level but completely fail to make any impact in the NFL. The people who didn't believe the off-field stuff was a factor and did not have doubts about how his play projected to NFL level were largely suggesting that he may well have been a low 1st round choice, that much is absolutely true, however there were also other sources who, (correctly in my opinion), didn't really pay any heed to the off-field distractions in any case, because they felt that at a fundamental level Te'o simply lacked the necessary physical tools to translate what he did at college into the Pro game. Those were the people who felt that he wasn't worth investing any more than a 3rd to 4th round pick in, and even the opinions of some of the mainstream sources who had earlier had him tagged as a low 1st round choice changed somewhat after that terrible Combine, as that was more of a naked look at what Te'o was about athletically rather than evaluating him purely on footballing performance.
I admit, my earlier assertion that nobody had Te'o down as a 1st rounder is incorrect. I still stand by my basic point though that his career was not 'ruined' by what happened to him off the field. When he was selected by the Chargers there were people aghast that they'd pick a player with his physical shortcomings that highly, but those would have been the same people who felt he wasn't worth that slot, whereas the people projecting him as a 1st round choice, and quite possibly Te'o himself, would understandably believe that he had 'fallen' in the draft due to the whole girlfriend saga.
Again, I can only point to the fact that his Combine output backed up what the doubters were saying, and that his actual NFL performance, such as it was, was on a par with what you could realistically expect from a player taken lower in the draft than Te'o was in reality. Confidence is great, but it doesn't give you the strength to shed the blocks of much larger men in the NFL, wrap up tackles on stronger backs, or give you the added agility and quickness to cover Ends down the field, all things Te'o did perfectly well in college but struggled with in the Pros due to the very deficiencies that the 'doubters' were talking about pre-draft. History is full of players who were dominant in college but either flopped, or didn't even make it to the NFL. It's not uncommon, and it's rarely because of distractions like the Te'o saga, it's more often than not down to the fact that the two levels of the sport are night and day apart, and starring in one does not automatically impart you with the ability to star in the other. Te'o did not 'fail' and NFL level, he just never reproduced his performance level he showed at Notre Dame. That may have been surprising to some, but at the same time there were plenty of others who predicted exactly that and did not view it as in any way a shock.
I suppose the truth would be that being taken after a trade up in the 2nd was a scenario that nobody really foresaw, both those who thought he merited a 1st round pick, and those who didn't believe he was worth the 2nd the Chargers spent on him. It's also the case though that he did have/has a reasonably lengthy and lucrative career regardless, just not that of a megastar, but then there was nothing about his college play that suggested he was destined to be an NFL 'megastar' in any case, not unless he could find a way to grow a couple of inches, put on 20llbs, and somehow get faster at the same time. His shortcomings were never about heart, intelligence, or even a lack of opportunity handed to him in the pros, they were entirely down to his own (relatively speaking) lack of size, strength, and speed.
Pre-draft opinions are just that, opinions. It's rare that there are more than two or three players in any single draft that everyone, without exception, agrees are destined for success in the pros. Te'o was never close to being one of those types of players, so I don't think it's in any way realistic to suggest that he had megastardom taken away from him. He was still given the exact same opportunity to play, start, and perform in the NFL that he would have been given had he been the 1st overall selection, arguably more so since he went to a superior team than he would have had he been picked 1st overall, and yet he was decidedly average across the length of his first contract, struggled with all the things, and in the exact manner that many thought he would, did not earn a second contract, and was released after four seasons. That is not a successful return on a 2nd round investment. As a sidenote, the GM who chose Te'o has a long standing habit of completely blowing 2nd round choices, so Te'o is not alone in that regard.
Had Te'o performed in the NFL like the superstar he was touted as, his draft position would have been rendered inconsequential as he would still have earned a huge second, and possibly third contract, and would still be playing right now at 31 years of age. He was given every opportunity to make that happen, but time and time again he was found wanting no matter how the team tried to use him. He wasn't stout enough to stop the run, and wasn't swift enough to cover receivers, so he fundamentally lacked the necessary variables that would permit him to play at 'star' level despite being given the opportunity to prove that he could do it. He was capable enough to play in the league as a back-up and rotational player, but that's not what you'd expect if you were a team investing a 2nd round pick, so by any fair measure he did not play up to his billing or investment as it was, and at no point could anyone have justified spending a 1st round pick. Hype and profile has a lot to answer for when it comes to expectations placed on young college players, hence why there are so many horrendous mis-evaluations and colossal busts in the Pros. Te'o wasn't a 'bust' as such, but he was still an underperformer, predictably so in my opinion.