I think it is totally unsurprising that people compare this to race. And it needs to be addressed seriously because it's a rather nuanced point.
What this comes down to is taking true observations about groups - and I mean here statistically true - and making generalizations or laws or having viewpoints abut individual members based on those statistics.
Profiling is a good example, and it works. Sometimes it works really well. Police forces or the military don't use it just because they are jerks, they use it because in a lot of cases it works. (See Trevor Phillips film which looks at this a little bit, he discusses the fact that some crimes have a strong association with certain ethnic groups, even though we like to think it isn't so.)
But we are all taught from really a very strong place of righteousness that it would be completely immoral to a) make generalized statements about those crimes relation to that group of people along the lines of, oh those Malfesians, watch out, so many of them are elephant-smugglers,) or even worse, have worries or views about any individuals's likelihood of being connected in that way (watch out for that guy in the shop, you know how many of those Malfesians are shoplifters.)
So it should be no surprise that for many people, it seems obvious that it would be wrong to say the same thing about trans people. Or for that matter, even about men - people struggle with that kind of generalization about sex-segregation, because it seems that it goes against what they are taught about making generalizations.
And it's really not about the numbers in the end. We wouldn't say it's ok to make generalizations about race even if the numbers were comparable.
We've spent decades teaching this stuff to kids in schools. That was what was so interesting about the Trevor Phillips film, the title,Things We Won't Say about Race - That are True, is spot on. Kids are taught that they cannot say those things, cannot make those generalizations, because it is racist. Universities and workplaces also support that.
It's an example where our attempts to limit people's thinking because we think it will have better social results leaves people unable to sort through complicated issues.