Standard trumpeting the case for trans youth

[WandaWomblesaurus73]

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/transgender-court-of-appeal-b976380.html

Can we analyse the stats for this? This will be weaponised to encourage young people to take hormones.

It’s a survey. It’s Jack Turban.
It is going to be very low quaility anecdata, shortly to be retracted?

@OneEpisode

It’s a survey. It’s Jack Turban. It is going to be very low quaility anecdata, shortly to be retracted?

At least it's a survey of actual trans people and not their parents and internet sockpuppets like Littman's ROGD study that was so feted in some circles.

I thought people wanted to see more research on this?

The research paper the article is referring to is here:

journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0261039#sec006

I've only had time to look at the methods and results, but the following issues stood out even with a quick read:

Study design

• It isn't a longitudinal study, so the comparisons showing better mental health outcomes are between different groups of people who have either had or not had cross-sex hormone treatment, not between the same group of people before and after treatment.
• It's a survey of self-selected participants. A large self-selected survey, but still at risk of selection bias - particularly given the small numbers in the groups starting cross-sex hormone treatment during adolescence, as discussed below.

Outcome measures

• The outcome measures assessed 3 factors: psychological distress, suicidality, and substance misuse.
• The only outcome measure for psychological distress was whether or not participants reported "severe psychological distress within the past month", defined as a specific score on a standardised 6-item questionnaire. The questionnaire asked participants to rate how much of the past month they had experienced symptoms such as “feeling hopeless”, “feeling fidgety or restless”, “feeling that everything was an effort”, along a scale that ranged from “None of the time” to “All of the time”.
• The symptoms rated in the questionnaire are very general and could have a variety of causes, and there is nothing about the questionnaire that enables the researchers to determine whether these symptoms were directly related to gender identity issues (or to any other causes).
• The timescale of “the past month” avoids recall bias, but gives an extremely narrow snapshot of participants’ mental health, particularly considering that the median age of participant groups suggests that many had begun cross-sex hormones several years before. I couldn't see any data on duration of hormone treatment in the paper.
• The median age of the adulthood-treatment group is 10 years older than the adolescence treatment groups - early 30s vs early 20s. There may be unexplored factors relating to age/life stage which might explain the differences in outcomes seen between the adulthood and adolescence groups.

Participant numbers

• Participants who had had cross-sex hormone were divided into groups based on the age at which treatment was started – early adolescence (14-15), late adolescence (16-17), or adulthood (18+). These groups were compared with a control group who had expressed a wish for, but never received, cross-sex hormone therapy.
• The numbers in the early and late adolescence groups are tiny in comparison to the adulthood and no-treatment groups, which weakens the reliability of the statistical analyses – 119 (early) and 362 (late) in comparison to 12,000+ (adulthood) and 8000+ (no-treatment).

Negative outcomes

• In comparison to the no-treatment group , the group that began cross-sex hormones in adulthood had lower odds of suicidal ideation in the past year, but greater odds of lifetime suicidal ideation, binge drinking in the past month, and lifetime illicit drug use. (Bearing in mind this was the most robust statistical comparison as it was between 2 large groups.)

Wasn't Lambchops a sock puppet? Or was that Brenda the Sheep?

The median age of the adulthood-treatment group is 10 years older than the adolescence treatment groups - early 30s vs early 20s. There may be unexplored factors relating to age/life stage which might explain the differences in outcomes seen between the adulthood and adolescence groups.

Is it possible they've just shown that older transgender people are unhappier than younger ones?
Haven't got time to look at the paper right now, but wondering have they differentiated between MTF and FTM

Is it possible they've just shown that older transgender people are unhappier than younger ones?
Haven't got time to look at the paper right now, but wondering have they differentiated between MTF and FTM

All participants were pooled for analysis, with (buried in a set of table footnotes) adjustments to analysis models for age and a set of other potentially confounding factors, including (for most analyses) biological sex.

I think a cautious interpretation would be that, compared to a younger group of trans people who at some point in their lives wanted cross-sex hormones but never took them (for unknown reasons), an older group of trans people who started cross-sex hormones in adulthood demonstrates some better outcomes (current severe psychological distress, recent suicidal ideation) but also some poorer outcomes (lifetime suicidal ideation illicit drug use, and current alcohol abuse), for reasons which are unclear.

What is clear from the study is that starting cross-sex hormones post-puberty doesn't result in overwhelmingly better mental health for young adults. Although the data from the groups starting hormones as adolescents appear to show better outcomes, the numbers in these groups are small, the outcome measures have a limited focus, even if the differences are real, the data don't prove that cross-sex hormones are the explanation.

I thought this might be the one that Jesse Singal tore apart but it’s new, so I guess it’s just the same author using the same data.

Here’s Singal on their previous effort. I don’t think the ridiculous errors he points out were ever corrected so they’ve probably done all the same shit over again.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1407036968584810504.html

Thanks, allmywhat, I hadn't come across the earlier paper. Looks like the new one is a similar take, but on cross-sex hormones rather than puberty blockers.

And the authors have apparently still not learned that association doesn't prove causality.

Yes what the fuck would parents know about whether their children displayed any signs of dysphoria pre-adolescence.

Have you ever read any detransitioner experiences @barleybadminton?

thevelvetchronicle.com/path-of-desistance-childhood-interrupted/

www.newsweek.com/theres-no-standard-care-when-it-comes-trans-medicine-opinion-1603450

www.transgendertrend.com/transition-detransition-conversation-between-sisters/

www.persuasion.community/p/keira-bell-my-story?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cta

And lol at bringing up the ‘sock puppet accounts’ re the Littman study - who were the people trying sabotage a vital piece of medical research into the sudden rise in trans-identifying teenage girls? FUCKING TRAs!

Why are you even on this website except to troll women who actually care about children’s rights, safety and happiness?